Starting a war with Iran?

[Gaspar]

My guess would be if they closed the Straits, the US would be there in no time to take command and occupy. This would be massive with Saudi support.)

Anybody want to see how much gear and troops we have in close proximity floating around?

Testing.....

(some old posts in this thread are interesting....but the common thread is war sucks and is often inevitable, unless you're Busheviks )

You are correct.  We have a massive inventory of assets at bases in Saudi and Qatar specifically to protect this strategic artery. This scenario is very familiar to our military as that the strait is a major weakness of ours (the worlds). I am confident that our military has run this scenario hundreds of times.

[we vs us]

From Deutsche Welle:

In 2010, Iran was the fifth-largest exporter to the EU after Russia, Norway, Libya and Saudi Arabia. Iran relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15633714,00.html

One other good reason why closing the Straits of Hormuz would be suicidal for Iran.  It would completely destroy its economy.  

[Conan71]

From Deutsche Welle:

In 2010, Iran was the fifth-largest exporter to the EU after Russia, Norway, Libya and Saudi Arabia. Iran relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15633714,00.html

I've seen estimates that 20 to 40 percent of the world oil production passes through the Strait of Hormuz.  Most of it is destined for Europe, India, or China, not the US.  A disruption would be painful for us because oil prices are set world wide, so while most of ours comes from Venezuela, we could still see pump prices at $5/gal.  That would put a big damper on any economic recovery.

Those European and Asian countries who depend on oil from the Gulf are more likely to see actual shortages.  They may have more to lose from a disruption, and I'd wonder if they'd be more inclined to intervene militarily.  Still, the idea of Indian or Chinese troops in control of the Strait would be cause for some major worries in Western capitals.

On another front, we'd have to wonder if our military could mount another war so soon after the last two.  Our people are worn down.  Equipment has to be replaced, and all of it brings enormous costs.  We're already deeply in debt from the combination of wars and tax cuts, so the question to ask is whether we can afford to get involved in yet another war in Asia.   

It would be something worse than a damper, I'm afraid.  $5.00 a gallon is either going to push more people into human-powered transit and public mass transit or simply kill off a good portion of the consumer economy if the choice goes from being able to buy durable goods or needing fuel to get back and forth to work.  At a jump of $2.00 a gallon, that means every single good coming to market will necessarily cost more due to increased shipping costs.  Perhaps that might get us moving more goods via rail rather than OTR.

[Conan71]

One other good reason why closing the Straits of Hormuz would be suicidal for Iran.  It would completely destroy its economy.  

What do we know about radical clerics?  They aren't completely rational people.  I suspect a move like that might fire up a new revolution in Iran which might not be a bad thing for world relations.

[Townsend]

Dangerous mix: Iranian oil and U.S. sanctions By Vali Nasr

Editor's note: Vali Nasr is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University and senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/29/opinion/nasr-iran-oil-hormuz/index.html

[Townsend]

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2011/12/2011122992541760163.html?utm_content=automateplus&utm_campaign=Trial6&utm_source=SocialFlow&utm_term=tweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount

US pushes ahead with arms deal to Iraq 

Deal including $11bn worth of advanced fighter jets and tanks comes with Iraqi mired in worsening political crisis.

[Conan71]

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2011/12/2011122992541760163.html?utm_content=automateplus&utm_campaign=Trial6&utm_source=SocialFlow&utm_term=tweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount

US pushes ahead with arms deal to Iraq 

Deal including $11bn worth of advanced fighter jets and tanks comes with Iraqi mired in worsening political crisis.

Awesome!  Our men will be fighting against their own equipment when we go back to clean up another mess there in 2021.

[Townsend]

My twitter feed is blowing up with this stuff now.

US-Iran Tensions Flare After Carrier Transited Strait of Hormuz

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/us-iran-tensions-flare-after-carrier-transited-strait-of-hormuz/

and

White House announces $30 billion sale of Boeing F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia in a deal 'supporting 50,000 US jobs' - @BBCBreaking

[Conan71]

My twitter feed is blowing up with this stuff now.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/us-iran-tensions-flare-after-carrier-transited-strait-of-hormuz/

and

White House announces $30 billion sale of Boeing F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia in a deal 'supporting 50,000 US jobs' - @BBCBreaking

Sad reality is that war toys will create jobs faster than anything else the government can do to get people to work.  Naturally, those aren't all jobs even directly working on the aircraft, but I suspect all the multiplicative jobs that come with people needing to spend their income from the aircraft factory.

[Ed W]

Jet fighters are one thing, but we seem to keep forgetting this advice:

[Gaspar]

The USS John Stennis and the USS Mobile Bay missile ship are now on site after passing through the strait yesterday.



Hopefully that is enough to detour the Iranian bass-boat fleet.

[we vs us]

What do we know about radical clerics?  They aren't completely rational people.  I suspect a move like that might fire up a new revolution in Iran which might not be a bad thing for world relations.

I guess I'm a pragmatist.   I don't believe that "radical" means "without common sense."  Really: the first rule of politics is self-preservation.  Anyone who find themselves in power will work to keep him or herself there for as long as possible.  That, then, precludes using your nation as a suicide bomber. 

[Townsend]

The USS John Stennis and the USS Mobile Bay missile ship are now on site after passing through the strait yesterday.

From above posted article:

"The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) and guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay (CG 53), conducted a planned, routine transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Dec. 27.  "The ships completed a port visit in Jebel Ali, UAE, and transited the Strait, in order to provide air support to Operation Enduring Freedom from the North Arabian Sea," Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Rebecca Rebarich said in an emailed response to questions about the Iranian report.

Lt Rebarich said Fifth Fleet's regular contacts with Iran's Navy "continues to be within the standards of maritime practice, well known, routine and professional," but she added that "It is not standard practice to share our transits due to operational security."

[Ronnie Lowe]

I am 58 years old and the United States as been at war my entire life.

[Townsend]

I am 58 years old and the United States as been at war my entire life.

It's profitable.