Over Development

[aoxamaxoa]

quote:Originally posted by swake

quote:Originally posted by In_Tulsa

Movies 8 did NOT close.

Well, there's something else Aox got wrong.

List them..... ahead of your curve.
Lots of wondering on this thread.
Try to stay on topic.
If the thread dies from lack of decent participation, so be it...

[Hometown]

aoxamaxoa,

You've made a good point here.  Doesn't Tulsa have a habit of being caught by surprise when recession roles around.  And it's going to again sometime.  A good habit would be to stay lean and mean during growth and then use recession to expand (when bargains are to be had) and capture market share (when our competitor cities are down on their knees).  Instead of being a victim of economic cycles it would be smart to work the cycles to our advantage and plan with recession and growth cycles in mind.

[In_Tulsa]

Movies 8 did NOT close.

[aoxamaxoa]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

aoxamaxoa,

You've made a good point here.  Doesn't Tulsa have a habit of being caught by surprise when recession roles around.  And it's going to again sometime.  A good habit would be to stay lean and mean during growth and then use recession to expand (when bargains are to be had) and capture market share (when our competitor cities are down on their knees).  Instead of being a victim of economic cycles it would be smart to work the cycles to our advantage and plan with recession and growth cycles in mind.

Good.

But there is no way to put brakes and pedals on these type cycles. Our heritage is one of boom bust dating back to the early oil field gamblers.

[SoonerRiceGrad]

Supposedly Tulsa was actually the big winner in the state for adding more jobs. Yes, Tulsa's economy is definately improving. The lifestyle center and residential additions should be supported I think. Even if the economy was still in shambles there would still be sprawl. That's just how it is.

As far as boom and bust goes, Tulsa is not so bad. You all could be OKC. That cycle had to come to a screeching halt the minute we were in any position to do some economic development...

[aoxamaxoa]

quote:Originally posted by SoonerRiceGrad

Supposedly Tulsa was actually the big winner in the state for adding more jobs. Yes, Tulsa's economy is definately improving. The lifestyle center and residential additions should be supported I think. Even if the economy was still in shambles there would still be sprawl. That's just how it is.

As far as boom and bust goes, Tulsa is not so bad. You all could be OKC. That cycle had to come to a screeching halt the minute we were in any position to do some economic development...

I don't understand. Sorry.

[sgrizzle]

quote:Originally posted by aoxamaxoa

quote:Originally posted by SoonerRiceGrad

Supposedly Tulsa was actually the big winner in the state for adding more jobs. Yes, Tulsa's economy is definately improving. The lifestyle center and residential additions should be supported I think. Even if the economy was still in shambles there would still be sprawl. That's just how it is.

As far as boom and bust goes, Tulsa is not so bad. You all could be OKC. That cycle had to come to a screeching halt the minute we were in any position to do some economic development...

I don't understand. Sorry.

SRG says sprawl exists in a vacuum and is not a direct tie to boom-or-bust as it occurs during both. He also says Tulsa is really coasting through whereas OKC has had much bigger valleys.

[TheArtist]

Just went through Wenmoor hadnt driven through there in a while.  I am still amazed at the number of 1-5+ million dollar homes being built there and in other places. I do know at least a couple of people I have worked with there are from out of town and from Cali.  One lady said her home cost her 3 mill here but would have easily been 10 mill in California. Its kind of like the grapes of wrath but in reverse lol.

[Hometown]

When Oregon was overrun by Californians the natives said that their state had been Californicated.

[USRufnex]

Californicated?... mmm... red hot chili peppers... good eatin'...

"Psychic spies from china
Try to steal your minds elation
Little girls from sweden
Dream of silver screen quotations
And if you want these kind of dreams
Its californication
Its the edge of the world
And all of western civilization
The sun may rise in the east
At least it settles in the final location
Its understood that hollywood
Sells californication"

[aoxamaxoa]

First signs.....

Construction Slopes Downward: Housing starts fall 33 percent

http://www.tulsaworld.com/BusinessStory.asp?ID=061109_Bu_E1_Paces34884

Real Estate: September Slump: Home sales, prices drop

http://www.tulsaworld.com/NewsStory.asp?ID=061108_Bu_E1_Homes34986

[sgrizzle]

Keep in mind that a home starts in at least part of broken arrow are on hold right now to address flooding issues. Also, we are in a slow time of the year for housing.

[swake]

quote:Originally posted by aoxamaxoa

First signs.....

Construction Slopes Downward: Housing starts fall 33 percent

http://www.tulsaworld.com/BusinessStory.asp?ID=061109_Bu_E1_Paces34884

Real Estate: September Slump: Home sales, prices drop

http://www.tulsaworld.com/NewsStory.asp?ID=061108_Bu_E1_Homes34986

First,

These are monthly numbers, don't get too excited about monthly numbers.

Second, this is bad sensational journalism. Sales of existing homes may be down a little, but when you add contracts pending plus sales completed the numbers are still up from a year ago, even if down from last month. Also, while home starts were down for the month, 2006 is still on pace to set an all time record for new home starts.

Tell me Aox, has the Riverwalk been repo'd? And how many buildings has Kanbar sold? I know you love to spread doom and gloom and you at least have real stats here, but a deeper and more reasoned look tells us that the sky is not falling. If in the spring we have three or four more months with numbers showing a real downward trend then we can have this conversation again.  

[aoxamaxoa]

Nobody said the sky is falling....what kind of a reactionary are you?

BTW, if they could find a buyer, they'd be gone.

Riverwalk ? Go by there and tell me the other additional acreage is being constructed for Kohl's and Barnes and Noble and all that bs.

Swake, get over it .... I have not been proven right nor wrong on my predictions. Nor do I care.

Food for thought is all I provide. I sense what is happening and I have a feeling times will get tougher as we move forward. More than 4 or 5 months...

I only reprint what I see through the links. I do not originate the journalism. You should not attack me for not playing along with the "mister goodie two shoes isn't this great" attitude. I am a counter balance... I represent the devil's advocate in a "heavenly" city.

What part of the cycle do you think we are in?
Don't be a flake, Swake.

[sendoff]

I tend to side with aox as far as the local housing market is concerned.

Four years of historically low interest rates and relaxed lending requirements have caused houses to be built and bought at a much higher rate than usual. In other words, the normal amount of homes were sold the past several years plus an additional few years worth. Since markets tend toward equilibrium, the Tulsa area market is in for a downward trend. And like all cycles, it will bottom out and start all over again - eventually.

From 2002-2005, the Tulsa area had a net population growth of minus 7,250, yet managed to build new homes at record levels (4,000+ new homes a year). The math does not work out.

I can see the commercial market being overextended also. There are new commercial developments in Owasso that still have plenty of spaces available post construction. The area in Tulsa with the new Best Buy sits largely vacant. Etc...