2008 Republican contenders

[rwarn17588]

I've started a GOP thread in the interest of fair play, plus I'm genuinely interested in hearing what y'all've got to say.

My take:

I think Giuliani's the front-runner. People blab about his tattered private life. But the guy exudes credibility, competence and leadership. Those are three things that people look for, big-time, in a candidate.

McCain could still win the nomination, but he's going to get bloodied by this primary, perhaps fatally.

I've heard a lot of people say that Huckabee is a dark horse. I'm not sure he has the fund-raising ability. Plus I'm not sure whether the country is ready to elect another former governor from Arkansas.

Sorry, but I don't see the GOP's conservative electorate going for a Mormon like Romney. Remember the last Mormon in Oklahoma who tried to run for governor? He got stomped by a 2-to-1 margin by a soft-spoken Democrat.

Brownback, Gingrich, Hagel and the others don't have a chance. They're either too weird, or they can't raise money or inspiration.

[Conan71]

Thanks RW, I didn't want to have to do that twice.  How nice and ironic, Dem thread started by a flaming conservative [}:)] and GOP thread started by a flaming Independent liberal [}:)]

I'll weigh in on it after I get back from lunch.

[rwarn17588]

Now, now, Conan, don't knock us independents.

Remember, Republicans elect Republican candidates. Democrats elect Democratic candidates.

Independents elect presidents. [^]

[iplaw]

Whoever has the gravitas to run with Lieberman...

[waterboy]

My take here is Guiliani. McCain and Clinton would duke it out to a 50/50 with age losing to er, uh...beauty. But Guiliani could energize the party. Could it be, Gigli and Liebfraumilch in the end?

[iplaw]

I think the G'man is unbeatable...

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

Thanks RW, I didn't want to have to do that twice.  How nice and ironic, Dem thread started by a flaming conservative [}:)] and GOP thread started by a flaming Independent liberal [}:)]

I'll weigh in on it after I get back from lunch.

I like Rudy.  Any Republican who could win election as mayor, not once but twice, of one of the most liberal cities in the world is a galvanizing figure.  He also made the most of the opportunity.  He got tough on crime, he got the city fiscally stable again, handled crisis with aplomb, and I think he has a lot of dignity.  He's been a great public servant dating from his days as a fearless prosecutor.  He's got experience in the US Attorney General's office as well.

His leadership of NYC is virtually un-impeachable.  He did an excellent job running a city with a population and budget of a small country.  I think he has relevant experience.  He's also pretty likeable.  There is some criticism of his handling of 9/11 that will get trumpeted pretty loudly if he is the nominee, because there's not much else to impune him.

The far right wing-nuts are going to have to get over his personal life woes.  

McCain bothers me and I can't really say why.  My biggest problem with him is somehow he thinks he's entitled to be the next GOP nominee.  He managed to piss off the far Christian right in 2000.  Unfortunately, you need that faction to get the nomination.  He's since patched things up with Jerry Falwell, but if someone gets into the race who wants to pander hard to the Christian faction, McCain will pay for his earlier problems with them.

To his credit, he's pretty moderate and does appeal to some Democrat voters.   Environmentally, he falls in line with them and he has broken with the GOP on various occasions to do what he believed was right.  He is very pro-military and national security.  He does talk a pretty good game, but I don't think he will get the nomination.  

Newt Gingrich- How Newt thinks he is still politically relevant is beyond me.  He's the GOP equivalent of Al Gore- huge hypocrite and flaming narcisist.  He squandered the opportunity with the "Contract For America", was the poster boy for the political excesses of Congress, and is damn lucky he was never indicted for his ethics issues.

He needs to be satisfied with being a bitter ex-politician whose only political outlet these days is to write forgettable books and be a regular guest of GOP propagandists as a "political analyst".

Romney, like Rudy, could have really good general election appeal.  To be a Republican Governor in a state that heavily supports Democrat candidates you have to be moderate.  His entire political career is as a failed challenger to Ted Kennedy for Senate and a one term Governor.  Other than that, he did a sterling job as CEO of the Winter Olympics in SLC which some could say is relevant by winding up with an event was projected to lose tons of money and wound up with a healthy profit.

He's reminiscent of the stereotypical eastern Episcopal-born with a silver-spoon-Republican pedigree.  Yet he's a Mormon and that is percieved to be his biggest liablity.  He may not be conservative enough to please the right wingers in the party.  

I don't know enough about Huckabee yet to comment on him.  I had never heard of Brownback until a few months ago, and Hagel is far too moderate to ever make it through the primaries, personally, I don't think he will run.  He is either a liberal sympathizer or just a maverick.  He will get slaughtered by McCain in the primaries for his stance on the war.  In fact, those two guys may just annhilate each other and leave it wide open for Rudy.

As far as Istook, either A) his ego was so big that he thought he could move back to Oklahoma and that people would fall all over themselves to elect him governor B) He figured running for governor against such a popular incumbent was a graceful way to retire, or C) he didn't read the newspapers and hear that Henry was doing a bang-up job.

[aoxamaxoa]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

I think the G'man is unbeatable...

I am certain you approve of his ethical nature.....
he's more of a ladies man than Clinton who you bash because of Monica. Double standard indeed.

Rudy was in the worst place at the best time. A real opportunist. Has the country ever elected a mayor to President?

[tim huntzinger]

Here is one for you: Anti-war Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

[okiebybirth]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

He managed to piss off the far Christian right in 2000.  Unfortunately, you need that faction to get the nomination.  He's since patched things up with Jerry Falwell, but if someone gets into the race who wants to pander hard to the Christian faction, McCain will pay for his earlier problems with them.

Therein lies the problem with voting Republican.  Anybody that gets the vote of the Christianists is someone who should be avoided at all costs.  Hopefully the Republican party will quit being a religious party sometime in the future and go back to it's roots of being the party of fiscal responsibility and personal freedoms.

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

I think the G'man is unbeatable...

In the general election, maybe...

But Guiliani in the Republican primaries?... not a snowball's chance in....

[iplaw]

quote:
Therein lies the problem with voting Republican.  Anybody that gets the vote of the Christianists is someone who should be avoided at all costs.  Hopefully the Republican party will quit being a religious party sometime in the future and go back to it's roots of being the party of fiscal responsibility and personal freedoms.

Generalize much?  I suppose that makes the democratic party the party of Michael Newdow... and what the hell is a "christianists" anyway?

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by USRufnex

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

I think the G'man is unbeatable...

In the general election, maybe...

But Guiliani in the Republican primaries?... not a snowball's chance in....

Why do you think Rudy won't make it out of the primaries?  If it's the affair deal, I don't think the Christian right is going to make that big a deal of it.  

Stance on abortion?

The other night on H & C he said he personally is against abortion, and doesn't like it, but believes it's up to a woman's conscience.  He doesn't believe the government should limit that choice.  That was one thing he said that appealed to me.  I don't believe our government should legislate morality.

Abortion is a dead issue anyhow.  It's not been repealed now through seven administrations, and I don't see it being repealed in the future.

[okiebybirth]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

quote:
Therein lies the problem with voting Republican.  Anybody that gets the vote of the Christianists is someone who should be avoided at all costs.  Hopefully the Republican party will quit being a religious party sometime in the future and go back to it's roots of being the party of fiscal responsibility and personal freedoms.

Generalize much?  I suppose that makes the democratic party the party of Michael Newdow... and what the hell is a "christianists" anyway?

christianist  -
A member of the Christian faith who seeks to use a religion of peace and tolerance for political and personal gain.

I don't see any generalization there. I didn't label all Republicans as Christianists, but I will not ever vote for a Republican who bows at their altar.

[iplaw]

quote:
christianist  -
A member of the Christian faith who seeks to use a religion of peace and tolerance for political and personal gain.

You must be an incredible mind reader to determine such things about people.  I'm guessing with you, there's no difference between that and a person seeking political and personal gain who happens to be a christian...

quote:
I don't see any generalization there. I didn't label all Republicans as Christianists, but I will not ever vote for a Republican who bows at their altar.

Of course not, you're the one generalizing, why would you?  

Again, how would you know if they were...when was the last time you saw a politician arm in arm with a religious leader...unless you count Al Sharpton?