DOW 12,800

[cannon_fodder]

Between Imus, Sanjaya, and VT no one seems to have time to report that the DOW is at an all time high while unemployment is approaching an all time low.  not that it would get reported anyway, I think it counts as good news.  If its good news about Iraq or the economy you never seem to find it making a big splash.

Anyway, let the good times roll.

[Johnboy976]

You make a good point. It's all about shootings and sex, not about success.

[deinstein]

Debt. Debt. Oh yeah, don't forget about...DEBT.

[Wilbur]

Remember..... It's all George Bush's fault!

[iplaw]

quote:Originally posted by Wilbur

Remember..... It's all George Bush's fault!

Who could forget...

[dinkleman23]

"Expert advice" removed.

[Renaissance]

quote:Originally posted by dinkleman23

Also removed

I think the discussion is about the state of the economy, not the state of your investments.  
 

[cannon_fodder]

Lets see... the DOW flirted with 12,000 in the year 2000.  Then the irrational exuberance of the markets was finally corrected, to the point that even the conservative investors such as Buffett proclaimed it was time to buy back into American markets.  After hitting lows near 7,000 the market rebounded 10,000 in about one year.

After trending neutral for several years it trended dramatically up for about a full year before seeing another small correction .  Now, it is again trending strongly up.  In the past 5 years it has added over 60% in value.

However, you are correct.  Any investor that was dumb enough to ride the entire fall could possibly have a negative return.  Though at our inflation levels the negative return would be slight.  However, in my no-knowledge state I diversified to some contrarian funds and over seas markets and managed to average a decent return.

So the decline/correction starting in 2000 was bad news... but how are near record highs for the DOW bad news?  I mean, I'm sorry if your a dividend investor and didnt jump on the REIT bandwagon in time.  But I fail to see how a high DJI average is bad news overall?

[DM]

Recovery happens...now that we are on end of the Bush Administration. []

[iplaw]

quote:Originally posted by dinkleman23

More removal

I'd stack his credentials against your's any day.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by deinstein

Debt. Debt. Oh yeah, don't forget about...DEBT.

What your student loans? []

You'll feel differently ten years down the road when you are away from the idealism of TU making good bank and have funds available to invest.

[RecycleMichael]

You guys are tough on the poor guy.

He was stating the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is finally back to the same level that it was when George Bush took office.

That is true.

We cannot use the Dow as the single indicator of the economy nor can we give a President the credit or blame for the overall economic health of the country. If anything, the stock market is in competion with bank for investment dollars and the federal interest rate a major factor in the Dow number.

It is too simple to say the economy is up or down for one year or three years or eight years. Most investors don't just look at the time periods as proof of their investment, they look at the size of their portfolio. Saying the economy is robust by comparing it to the bust economy is not the whole picture.

By that thinking, a bogey on a par three would be better than a par on a par five hole because it took less shots. What matters for comparison purposes is what you made as a total on all eighteen.

[rwarn17588]

What RM said.

It's taken a long time for my portfolio to return to its previous level. Recessions do happen, but this one's taken nearly six years to get back to where it once was. That's a severe and prolonged setback.

Happily, Moneytalk guru Bob Brinker says investors should be fully vested for the time being. He correctly said that the 400-point drop a few weeks ago was a "gift horse" for stock buyers.

But Brinker's no big fan of the current administration, especially of its big deficits. He definitely liked the sane fiscal policies of Clinton better.

[Conan71]

I'll agree, history does show that Clinton was more of a fiscal conservative than Rush Limbaugh and his ilk led people to believe at the time.  It's well-documented.

But, he didn't have several large natural disasters in a row and an unprecedented terrorist attack on U.S. soil to deal with either.  That little attack came with gov't sponsored reparations for victims, a Department of Homeland Defense, expensive overhauls of public transportation safety, etc.  Please let's not delve off into the Iraq thing again, but it bears mentioning in the fiscal sense.

It's pretty easy to keep spending low when there aren't un-planned catastrophes that happen when you are under attack from nature and terrorists simultaneously.

[rwarn17588]

Well, Conan, we *have* spent close to a trillion dollars in Iraq and not much to show for it.

If I were a businessman, I'd sure be grilling someone about the cost-effectiveness of such action.

If any other CEO had spent money like that with so few good results, he would have been fired.