Today is the Iowa Caucus

[RecycleMichael]

The first important political moment of 2008 happens early this year...January 3rd.

Whichever candidate wins the first one gets tremendous free coverage and frankly, looks like a winner to their party. The bandwagon effect is monumental, proven last time by John Kerry. I don't know why a bunch of corn-fed midwesterners get to have such an honor, but I think it is one of the reasons why corn gets so much federal subsidy.

Who is going to win? Will Iowans vote for New Yorkers?

The polls show Romney has been ahead for a while, but suddenly Huckabee has caught up. Clinton and Obama seem tied today, but Edwards is very close behind the top two.

This site has many of the current polling results... http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/iowa.html

This site allows you to make your own prediction and get paid if you are correct...

http://www.predictify.com/predictify.aspx?SearchText=iowa&gclid=CMuA8PmbhZACFTyKOAodLkRtvQ

[FOTD]

Huckabee has got the mo going his way. The more old time republicans I visit with across America the more I hear they like him and think he can beat Hillabill.

The way all these caucuses and primaries are compressed into a short time period may make it quicker to see who sprouts into the lead. Would you short Rudy and go long on Huck?

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ~Bertrand Russell

[Double A]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

Huckabee has got the mo going his way. The more old time republicans I visit with across America the more I hear they like him and think he can beat Hillabill.

The way all these caucuses and primaries are compressed into a short time period may make it quicker to see who sprouts into the lead. Would you short Rudy and go long on Huck?

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ~Bertrand Russell

Huckabee vs. Hillabill will definitely be a nail biter like the Bush/Gore election. We might even see the Supreme Court become the "decider" again. Oh, who am I kidding, like W will allow an election? The clock is ticking on the countdown to the declaration of Marshall law. []

[FOTD]

Yeppers. Mike Huckabee is saying god is pushing up his poll numbers.
http://www.falwell.com/index.cfm?PID=16037
Let's go Huckster....Gawd!

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ~Bertrand Russell

[USRufnex]

I figure Huckabee's got an outside shot at winning the whole thing...

More likely though, is whichever previously pro-choice repub candidate wins... the nominee will use Huckabee as VP... the key word in that phrase is "use"... []

[FOTD]

HOLD IT.....I thinketh Darth Cheney has used Bush II. Not the other way around.

Hillabill will choose who to use? Bill can't take the position.....'scuse the intended joke.


The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ~Bertrand Russell

[FOTD]

A key question in Iowa will be who got all the second place votes....

Will Obama be the comeback kid?

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ~Bertrand Russell

[cannon_fodder]

Democrats

Barrack is seen as an honest individual. He pretty well takes the party line on all the issues and has released some plans to facilitate them - some of which have drawn criticism as unworkable or ill-fated.  In addition, many fear he lacks the experience needed to govern (State then US Senate = 10 years in office).  Also, he's black... Iowa is fairly progressive but some rural farmers in NW Iowa have never seen a black man, let alone voted for one.  Ironically, he has also received criticism from some Black organizations for being "too white."  It is also commonly mistaken that Obama is a Muslim (Hussein...) - he is United Church of Christ. I

Hillary, on the other hand - is seen has having national potential.  She is perceived as having the experience (6 years in office) and a been-there done there rockstar husband.  She basically holds the party line but loses points with many because she has refused to release any details or be tied down by a position.  Polls have indicated an image problem as being power-hungry and unfriendly which was hurt by Iowa media reports of stiffing a waitress on the campaign trail.  She has an advantage because she is well known - but a disadvantage because she is well known.

Edwards is a non-entity.  It would be like voting Tofu as your favorite food because you can add flavor later.

Looks like a toss in Iowa between Hilldog and Husein O'Bama.  Hillary might have an edge as some rural farmers in Western Iowa have never seen a black man before, let alone voted for one (sry, I'm from Iowa so I can say that.  Right?).

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani is too liberal for most Iowans, let alone Republicans.  Probably has strong support in Des Moines and Iowa City (U of Iowa) but outside of there it would be sparse.

Fred is a middle of the road guy for the most part, seems to be a non-issue in Iowa.

Mike Huckabee seems down to earth and should appeal to the base.  His strict ties to the baptist religion is probably an issue for many Iowans (Baptist College, Baptist Minister...etc)  and his desire to teach creationism surely doesn't go over well with some in an education oriented state.  Takes the party line on abortion (no), gun control (no), the death penalty (yes, but not in Iowa FYI), and the Iraq war (yes, I guess...).  He also supports the fair tax.  However, he carries some baggage from Arkansas scandals.

Mitt Romney is a Mormon.  For some reason that always comes up first...  probably an advantage in Iowa against an ordained baptist minister.  In fact, many of the Catholics (Iowa = majority Catholic) can relate to the perceived religious biased thing (aka Kennedy) but nonetheless Mormons are not well understood by many.  More importantly to many he was a self-made business man (Stanford, BYU and Harvard educated).  HOWEVER, his views have flip flopped from various positions to fall into the party line.

Toss up between Romney and Huckabee.
- - -

Should be interesting.  Both of the republican candidates seem pretty vanilla but have religious issues with broader voters (Mike being a fundamentalist Baptist minister and Mitt being a Mormon).  Obama is pretty vanilla  except for being black (pardon the pun)- which one would like to think is a non-issue.  Hillary seems to be the only polarizing candidate, for better or worse (based generally on the candidate, not necessarily positions).

That's what I see.  Correct my ignorance if I was wrong somewhere.

My Iowa predictions:

Democrat:
Obama - 29%
Hillary - 27%
Edwards - 20%  (I think at the caucus people will polarize behind O or H and leave E out to dry more than the polls indicate)

Republican:
Mitt - 30%
Huckabee - 27%
Rudy - 14%
Thompson - 12%

Ron Paul - 6% (bold prediction, only because I think people are not happy with their choices and will go with an outsider to make a point)

I see no Howard like implosions this year.  The only one with something to really lose is Hillary who set herself up as the odds on favorite.  Well, I guess Thompson could take a real beating too. Everyone else can make a showing and move on.

[jne]

quote:Originally posted by cannon_fodder

Democrats


Democrat:
Obama - 29%
Hillary - 27%
Edwards - 20%  (I think at the caucus people will polarize behind O or H and leave E out to dry more than the polls indicate)

I completely agree with your comment about the Edwards crowd and I'm willing to bet that a hefty serving of those is in the Edwards camp as 'not Hillary' people.  Heck Hillary might even inspire them to support a black man.

[FOTD]

Heeeeere's OPRAH!

What did Adam say to Eve their first time? Stand back, I'm not sure how big this thing will get.  

[RecycleMichael]

I predict that Edwards will make Iowa very close and might win it.

Hillary and Obama will do well in the cities, but Edwards will sweep rural Iowa. The exit polls will be in the urban areas so they TV folk will show Obama and Hillary ahead early in the evening, but when the votes are finally counted, the Edwards campaign will be in full momentum mode.

[FOTD]

"some Americans may simply see a vote for Mr. Obama as a vote for faith in America itself. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/opinion/16rich.html?th&emc=th

[RecycleMichael]

If Edwards beats Obama, he will be seen as the "someone besides Hillary candidate."

If Edwards beats Hillary, it will cripple her going forward. One of her strengths is that many people see her as the inevitable winner.

Third place for either Obama or Hillary is bad, very bad. Third place for Edwards will be OK if it is close enough to the other two. If he loses to both of them by double digits, he is done.

First place for Edwards will surge him in the next few states and make him the next President.

[we vs us]

The Politico has the full text of what they're calling Obama's "closing remarks."  Definitely worth a glance.

[RecycleMichael]

Great speech. He is a worthy candidate to be my President.