It's The Economy, STUPID!.....

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=abh8h7M3uKBA&refer=us
Nobel-Winning Economist Blames Bush Tax Cuts, Greenspan for Recession Threat


http://www.hillbillyreport.com/blog/2008/01/its-the-economy.html


Junk Bond Crisis.....a must read:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/TheNextBankingCrisisOnTheWay.aspx?vv=550

It will be bigger than sub prime.

We are in a financial crisis.

The end is near!  The end is near!  Abandon all hope!  The end is near!

[FOTD]

It's not the end......and don't abandon hope.

BUT IT'S BAD......and Dumbya et al have delivered this to us with his war expenditures, tax cuts for the super rich, and easing of government over sight.


Vote for the ones running who can be responsible. 8 years of this noncents is enough.

[FOTD]

TulsaWhirled can do better than putting this lie before us....
It ain't the president's economy, stupid!
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20080206_222_A16_spanc85100

It IS this stupid president's economy. I did not read one word about confidence and credibility. The article avoids the fact that we are manipulated into what to believe is going on in the current economy by our leaders.
This stupid white house manages to carry deception to a new level.

[FOTD]

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0826726720080208

Recession to be longer than usual: UMich
020808

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy has entered a recession that will be more painful and drawn out than the usual downturn, the director of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey said on Friday.

Inflation pressures will linger despite the retrenchment in consumer spending, complicating the task of policy-makers, the University's Richard Curtin said in a report, citing data from industry group The Conference Board.

"This is no ordinary recession," he said. "The aftereffects will last much longer than the typical downturn."

He said the Conference Board's expectations index is a strong predictor of economic contractions, and that it is currently flashing red.

With Americans getting hit with everything from a housing downturn to excess borrowing, things will get worse before they get better.

"Consumers must take more drastic steps to stabilize their finances in the midst of high fuel and food prices, stagnant incomes, and record debt," Curtin said.

TWO AMERICAS

The new report adds that a rising wealth gap will, even more than usual, lead to disproportionate pain for middle- and lower-income Americans.

"Growing income inequality has insulated higher income groups to a greater extent than ever before," the report said.

Yet the rich will not go unscathed, with the stock market's recent slide likely taking a bite out of many an investment portfolio.

Paradoxically, worsening economic conditions will induce families to save money, reinforcing the drag on an economy that has become largely reliant on consumer spending.

"The negative impact will grow as home prices continue to fall in the year ahead," he said.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080208/ap_on_go_ot/bush_congress_ap_poll

"The dour public mood seems to chiefly reflect distress over the doddering economy, which has seen job cuts, financial market slides and real estate losses stoke recession fears. Bush's approval for handling the economy dove to 29 percent, a slide of 4 percentage points in a month and matching his low on that issue, with noticeable slumps among middle-income people, Southerners and city residents."



AND....(more on confidence and trust)




"The differences now: "People don't trust ratings, structures or collateral. There's also a dramatic decline in real estate throughout the country. In the past, people thought the market would go up because the Fed re-inflated. They're missing fact that credit revulsion has occurred."
http://moneynews.com/money/archives/st/2008/2/7/132750.cfm?s=st

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0826726720080208

Recession to be longer than usual: UMich
020808

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy has entered a recession that will be more painful and drawn out than the usual downturn, the director of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey said on Friday.

Inflation pressures will linger despite the retrenchment in consumer spending, complicating the task of policy-makers, the University's Richard Curtin said in a report, citing data from industry group The Conference Board.

"This is no ordinary recession," he said. "The aftereffects will last much longer than the typical downturn."

He said the Conference Board's expectations index is a strong predictor of economic contractions, and that it is currently flashing red.

With Americans getting hit with everything from a housing downturn to excess borrowing, things will get worse before they get better.

"Consumers must take more drastic steps to stabilize their finances in the midst of high fuel and food prices, stagnant incomes, and record debt," Curtin said.

TWO AMERICAS

The new report adds that a rising wealth gap will, even more than usual, lead to disproportionate pain for middle- and lower-income Americans.

"Growing income inequality has insulated higher income groups to a greater extent than ever before," the report said.

Yet the rich will not go unscathed, with the stock market's recent slide likely taking a bite out of many an investment portfolio.

Paradoxically, worsening economic conditions will induce families to save money, reinforcing the drag on an economy that has become largely reliant on consumer spending.

"The negative impact will grow as home prices continue to fall in the year ahead," he said.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080208/ap_on_go_ot/bush_congress_ap_poll

"The dour public mood seems to chiefly reflect distress over the doddering economy, which has seen job cuts, financial market slides and real estate losses stoke recession fears. Bush's approval for handling the economy dove to 29 percent, a slide of 4 percentage points in a month and matching his low on that issue, with noticeable slumps among middle-income people, Southerners and city residents."



AND....(more on confidence and trust)




"The differences now: "People don't trust ratings, structures or collateral. There's also a dramatic decline in real estate throughout the country. In the past, people thought the market would go up because the Fed re-inflated. They're missing fact that credit revulsion has occurred."
http://moneynews.com/money/archives/st/2008/2/7/132750.cfm?s=st

I guess some still have a problem with the definition of a recession. "Two consecutive quarters of declining GDP."  

I've been very entertained with all of the new definitions that the media is offering, and the liberal light-minds are humping to death!

. . . Meanwhile, tucked away in my evil layer, I've been buying stock like crazy (insert evil laugh)!

[FOTD]

"You can't "continue" to grow if you're not growing. The US is in recession and it is going to be a deep one."

Banks out of capital - solvency ?    

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/banks-need-bailouts-but-wheres-money.html

[cannon_fodder]

Ummm, we had solid growth in the 3rd QT of 2007.  So by definition we can't be in a recession.  

Some words have specific meaning for a reason, recession is one of them.  Throwing it around flippantly is just confusing to most people.  It's like calling every one ever served in the US military a "hero."  Sorry, I appreciate your service by "hero" needs to be reserved for special cases.

Lets see... I guess we can say "real recession" and "actual hero."  There are tons of other words being equally abused, it bothers me.

[FOTD]

The Nation is in recess.....(maybe not in this small little world inside the rest of the USA).

How deep and how wide?

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/bear-market/2008/02/11/

Just unreal carnage coming.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCuwStbomDjE&refer=home

People have no idea.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0210biz-beck0210.html

No buyers as deals turn bad and the cash and credit spiggots are shut....

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/02/04/080204taco_talk_cassidy

"Economies evolve, and so, too, must economic policy."

[FOTD]

Deniability at its finest. Hiding from reality will not make it go away.

They stopped giving accurate unemployment data about 4 years ago. Now unemployment rates are 'generated' in the White House and go unverified by the Fed. It used to be they verified by counting State tax contribution payrolls, an extrememly accurate method of knowing exact emplyment figures. They fired those people. As for the inflation rate being so low...did you really believe it? In my industry (construction) we have seen a 40% increase in raw material costs over the last 3 years while the government states inflation is 1.5%...oh yeah! 1.5 %! maybe per MONTH!


Bush Administration Hides More Data, Shuts Down Website Tracking U.S. Economic Indicators


http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/13/economic-indicators/

"This site is maintained by the Economics and Statistics Administration and combines data collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, like GDP and net imports and exports, and the Census Bureau, like retail sales and durable goods shipments. The site simply links to the relevant department's Web site. This might not seem like a big deal, but doing it yourself–say, trying to find retail sales data on the Census Bureau's site–is such an exercise in futility that it will convince you why this portal is necessary."

The attacks against getting the truth out will never stop. Now that the new version of the Alien & Sedition Acts have passed the House (the "Domestic Terrorism" gargbage) they'll be able to shut down anybody, TNF included. The free dissemination of ideas and opinion is the next thing to be stripped from us.

[FOTD]

"The only lasting remedy, other than for Americans to accept a lower standard of living and for businesses to adjust to a smaller economy, is to give middle- and lower-income Americans more buying power — and not just temporarily."


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/opinion/13reich.html?th&emc=th

[Double A]

Security and the Falling Dollar
By JUDY SHELTON


Every year, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence is briefed by the chief of U.S. intelligence on potential threats to the nation. The list is sobering, but usually predictable and typically includes global terrorism, nuclear proliferation and regional conflicts.

But this year, there was a surprising potential foe: the falling dollar. In his report to Congress last week, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell went beyond the conventional world of spycraft. Mr. McConnell specifically acknowledged "concerns about the financial capabilities of Russia, China, and OPEC countries and the potential use of their market access to exert financial leverage to achieve political ends." He noted, in particular, the impact a weak dollar can have on national security: "As the dollar has weakened this year, some oil producers -- such as Syria, Iran, and Libya -- have asked to be paid in currencies other than the dollar while others -- such as Kuwait -- are delinking their currency pegs to the dollar."

It's not every day a former Navy vice admiral steeped in the culture of the defense intelligence community talks like a central banker, but Mr. McConnell clearly recognizes a threat: "Continued concerns about dollar depreciation could tempt other major producers to follow suit."

The rest of Washington -- and every presidential contender -- needs to start paying attention to the declining dollar before it develops into a full-blown currency crisis with damaging geopolitical consequences. What happens if major oil-producing nations decide to abandon the dollar for measuring the value of their most important export? What if they set up their own monetary union to serve as an alternative to a currency that is no longer a reliable store of value?

At a time when the Pentagon is focusing on the importance of rebuilding war-torn nations -- restoring civil and economic stability -- as a prerequisite for lasting peace, we should be emphasizing the confidence-building aspects of sound money. The dollar's primary role in the world financial system is the most vital nonmilitary instrument of our national power. We cannot afford to neglect the dollar and thereby give up the global influence that comes from providing the world's key reserve currency.

It's a matter of global energy security, first and foremost. Russia makes no secret of its ambitions to elevate the ruble to world reserve currency status. President Vladimir Putin, in a major televised speech last Friday outlining his strategic goals for the next 12 years, stated that Russia must become "one of the world's financial centers" -- a logical step, he asserted, given that Russia has accumulated $484 billion in gold and foreign currency reserves. Mr. Putin earlier called for denominating transactions for Russian oil and gas exports in rubles. When his chosen successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is inaugurated in May, we can expect a tightening of the link between Russian energy deliveries and currency requirements imposed on recipient countries.

A perfect storm for dollar desertion may already be brewing. In the months ahead, China is expected to export fewer consumer goods to the U.S. with a forcibly-appreciated yuan. Meanwhile, Chinese spending for Russian oil and gas will likely start to ramp up. Mr. Medvedev, whose duties include serving as chairman of Gazprom, observed this past summer that the U.S. dollar was not immune to crisis of a "comprehensive, global character." He was thinking ahead about potential opportunities. "A situation may arise where we, China, and some other Asian countries will speak of the emergence of a regional reserve currency." The yuan was a possibility, Mr. Medvedev conceded. "But it is in our interest that it be the ruble."

If gold and foreign currency reserves were the only prerequisite for harboring global ambitions in the monetary arena, China could make impressive claims of its own with $1.7 trillion as of December 2007, the world's highest level. Japan comes in second at $973 billion. If you add together the gold and foreign currency reserves of EU member states that have adopted the euro, including those of the European Central Bank, the total amount in the EU is $511 billion.

Russia trails not so far behind. And beyond its considerable official reserves (which increased by 57% last year alone) and its alarming energy clout in European and Asian markets, Russia has a growing military presence. Not that Russia's military capabilities were ever truly contained. But those capabilities have been constrained as Russia struggled to emerge from its Communist past and join the family of democratic nations. Political transformation and economic renewal took precedence, so it seemed, over the large demands on funds that clinging to military superpower status would have required.

Building up a menacing force of strategic bombers, nuclear submarines and new intercontinental ballistic missiles is a financial luxury -- one that Mr. Putin now seems eager to indulge as Russia fills its coffers. It may be that he sees it as the essential appendage to global power needed to carry out his strategic vision.

How else to explain the incursion of a Russian warplane on Saturday into Japanese air space, a violation that caused 22 Japanese fighter jets to scramble and elicited a strong protest to Moscow from the Japanese foreign ministry? The TU-95 "Bear" bomber is equipped to carry cruise missiles that can deliver a nuclear warhead.

Japanese newspapers speculate that the intrusion might have been prompted by an annual rally held two days before in Tokyo demanding the return of four islands seized by Russia in the closing days of World War II. Both Japan and Russia are strongly motivated to settle the long-standing dispute; Japan wants greater access to Russian energy supplies while Russia seeks Japanese financial capital to develop its far eastern regions.

Just last week -- only three days before the Russian warplane sortie -- Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced he had received a letter from the Russian president offering to hold talks to resolve the dispute over the islands. Mr. Fukuda has made plans to visit Moscow in late April or early May, convinced that working out a settlement with Mr. Putin "is essential to lift Russo-Japanese ties to higher levels." If he waits until May 9, Mr. Fukuda can take in Mr. Medvedev's inaugural ceremonies as well as the planned full-scale, Soviet-style military parade -- the first display of weapons on Red Square since 1990.

Not that the crude maneuvering of carrot-and-stick incentives isn't effective, but it is dangerous. Especially when the dealmaker has shown a high propensity to rely on the stick.

A weakening U.S. currency plays directly into fears about a weakening U.S. economy and gives credence to self-serving pronouncements about America's weakening role in the world arena. The dollar won't be strengthened by further interest-rate cuts or more fiscal stimulation leading to inflationary consumer spending. If the U.S. is to reclaim its position as provider of the world's most trusted currency, we must think more boldly.

It's time to confront currency disorder. Our goal should be to put forward a new proposal for international monetary relations on the scale of the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, invoking the same sentiments that inspired architects John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White to provide a foundation of hope for a world all too prone to violence. A global system based on a universally-accepted monetary asset -- the U.S. has the world's highest level of official gold reserves, followed by Germany and France -- would not only counter Russia's offensive. It would convert a national security threat into a golden opportunity.

[FOTD]

Hard Times Heighten Long-Felt Unease
Sunday February 17, 3:04 pm ET
By Adam Geller, AP National Writer  
As Economic Tide Recedes, an Undertow of Long-Simmering Insecurities Grows Among Americans

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080217/the_uneasy_economy.html

If you are older/retired then you know about the shambles of health care, only getting worse.

If you are a boomer you already know how underfunded your 401k is. Last week a survey showed 74% of boomers had less than $100k in retirment savings.

Post boomers cannot find decent paying jobs to sustain the lifestyles they see in the media.

Suddenly, the nation doesn't care about school prayer, burning flags, abortion, etc. Would you if you had no job at age 58 and little savings and behind in your bills? These voters are panicking but it may be too late.

Whomever wins the election will have little impact on what awaits us, a long and painful recession lasting years. In was years in the making, not totally blaming Bush but I am blaming Congress of the last 2 decades. Bush just made it worse and quicker and deeper.

[FOTD]

Interesting readings....
9.3 trillion in debt and growing
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/inflating-away-debt.html

"However, the move has sparked unease among some analysts about the stress developing in opaque corners of the US banking system and the banks' growing reliance on indirect forms of government support."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66db756a-de5d-11dc-9de3-0000779fd2ac.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSL1986889020080219

[FOTD]

Remember the S&L crisis? That was peanuts to what's happening now.

Bank of America Asks Congress for a $739 Billion Bank Bailout
http://www.distillingfinance.com/2008/2/24/Bank-of-America-Asks-Congress-for-a-739-Billion-Bank

My neighbor down the street, bought a house 2 years ago, then his job went to China and he defaults on his loan - should he go to congress and ask for bailout? He probably should, but will he get the bailout? No.

BoA won't have any problems getting bailout, as it has purchased enough congresscritters to keep it safe no matter what.

Remember: Invest in America - buy a congressman!
It's just an idea. There is no distinction between public and private.

[FOTD]

Foreclosures closer to home: evidence of the economy's downward spiral

http://discuss.epluribusmedia.net/node/881

And of course, from this morning's Wall Street Journal we get the Bush Administration's take on the situation:

"In an interview yesterday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson branded many of the aid proposals circulating in Washington as "bailouts" for reckless lenders, investors and speculators, rather than measures that would provide meaningful relief to deserving, but cash-strapped, mortgage borrowers.

Mr. Paulson's comments came amid signs that the nation's housing market is getting worse, not better."


Help for predatory creators of the problem. That makes sense.