Two days till Michigan

[RecycleMichael]

This one is going to be hard to predict.

Michigan broke the "rules" and moved up it's primary to try and capture some of that Iowa magic. Both parties stripped the state of actually awarding delegates by this vote next Tuesday.

As a result, there has been almost no campaigning and no polling being done in Michigan.

I predict a Romney win, barely with Huckabee second and Guiliani, McCain and Thompson close in third, fourth and fifth. The story here is that Romney finally wins something on the evening news (nobody cared about Wyoming last week) and that Guliani gets his campaign back into swing by beating McCain. Guliani will do very well on Super Tuesday, especially in Florida, but needs some momentum now to raise any money. Thompson will do better here than in the first two, but will still be lucky to get ten percent. Michigan could conceivably have five candidate getting between 10 and 20 percent each.

On the Democratic side, I predict a Clinton win because of her superior machine and early work nationally. She was quick to line up party regulars and hire all the known grass roots campaigners possible. Obama does well in Detroit and Ann Arbor to make it close with Edwards getting a slightly smaller percentage than the 17% he got in New Hampshire.

If she gets a win here and then the next week in Nevada (where she should), it will help keep her close in South Carolina where Obama could win by 20 points.

[RecycleMichael]

Edwards does very well in Oklahoma.

There are 92 of us in the Tulsa Chapter of his volunteer corps.

http://blog.johnedwards.com/chapter/420

[inteller]

because it is closed primaries from here on out, Clinton holds the advantage in almost every state (that matters).

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

He doesn't have a prayer.

Desert. We need to stop the Clintonites.

BTW, look for the race to stop by here at some point. Every delegate will matter when the smoke clears.

Every primary has Edwards picking up delegates. I think the democrats will be going to the convention with an uncertain candidate and he is going to be a powerful force who can use those delegates to push his agenda.

[RecycleMichael]

I am not so sure about your prediction of Barack as the winner.

The delegates come from other things than these caucuses and primaries. There is also super delegates.

http://www.propeller.com/viewstory/2007/12/28/super-delegates-clinton-leads-obama-and-edwards/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fabcnews.go.com%2FPolitics%2FVote2008%2Fstory%3Fid%3D4060224%26page%3D1&frame=true

If the convention was today, Hillary would get the nomination. Barack will lose Michigan (that doesn't count), win in South Carolina and tie in Nevada and still be way behind.

Super Tuesday is everything, but I predict all three of the major democrats will pick up delegates.

This time, for the first time in a long time, the convention matters.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I am not so sure about your prediction of Barack as the winner.

The delegates come from other things than these caucuses and primaries. There is also super delegates.

http://www.propeller.com/viewstory/2007/12/28/super-delegates-clinton-leads-obama-and-edwards/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fabcnews.go.com%2FPolitics%2FVote2008%2Fstory%3Fid%3D4060224%26page%3D1&frame=true

If the convention was today, Hillary would get the nomination. Barack will lose Michigan (that doesn't count), win in South Carolina and tie in Nevada and still be way behind.

Super Tuesday is everything, but I predict all three of the major democrats will pick up delegates.

This time, for the first time in a long time, the convention matters.

 If Hillary can only win core Democratic votes, if she can't win Independents, then why bother to nominate her, when that's the clearest proof that she's unelectable?
Unless Democrats want to hand this election to McCain or Guiliani!
 I think it's become evident the big GOP movers would rather see Billary than Barack.
Too bad they can't cross over in the primaries.
This may explain the sudden %20 flip in NH. Diebold or Diabolic?

[RecycleMichael]

My predictions in Michigan...

Romney 33%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 19%
Thompson 10%
Guliani 7%
Paul 2%
Tancredo 0%
Duncan 0%

On the Democratic side...

Hillary is really the only one on the ballot. Obama and Edwards have withdrawn their names from the ballot as support for the Democratic National party's want to punish Michigan for moving up their date. This is probably the only chance for Kucinich to come in second, only needing to beat out Gravel and Dodd.

[Rico]

I'll take Jessy Ventura for $25.00 Bob...

ooops.. wrong state. That only happens in California.

[RecycleMichael]

Michigan's independent voters can vote in this primary election (unlike Oklahoma's independents). With no major democrat battle to weigh in on, I surmise that most of them will vote republican tomorrow.

That is good news for McCain. He will do way better and might even win Michigan.

That will be a terrible blow to Romney. His father was governor of Michigan for six years in the 60s and was Chairman of American Motors before that.

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

My predictions in Michigan...

Romney 33%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 19%
Thompson 10%
Guliani 7%
Paul 2%
Tancredo 0%
Duncan 0%

It looks like my order was correct, but I underestimated Romney and Paul and overestimated Thompson and Guliani.

I heard that a bunch of democrats were voting for Romney because they thought he was the easiest to beat. I thought Thompson would get some bounce from his debate performances lately, but I must be the only one who was impressed. Guliani just seems like a loser to me and has put everything into Florida at the end of the month. If he doesn't get a win there, he is toast.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

My predictions in Michigan...

Romney 33%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 19%
Thompson 10%
Guliani 7%
Paul 2%
Tancredo 0%
Duncan 0%

It looks like my order was correct, but I underestimated Romney and Paul and overestimated Thompson and Guliani.

I heard that a bunch of democrats were voting for Romney because they thought he was the easiest to beat. I thought Thompson would get some bounce from his debate performances lately, but I must be the only one who was impressed. Guliani just seems like a loser to me and has put everything into Florida at the end of the month. If he doesn't get a win there, he is toast.

Giuliani is looking more and more dead in the water.  I know his strategy is to really work Super Tuesday states like Florida, but without momentum of ANY SORT, how can he hope to make a solid sweep?  

And Thompson's days are numbered.  

I will be very interested to see when/if/how Ron Paul bows out of the race, and what the reaction of the faithful Paulites will be.  Are they candidate-specific votes, or can he throw his backing behind a front-runner and motivate his supporters to do the same?  Question is, is Paul still a part of the Republican Party at this point, or is his movement a cult of personality at this point?

[inteller]

I really wish McCain would have won last night.  Hopefully he can use SC to put a nail in the Romney coffin.  That slick mormon needs to go away.  He is unelectable in the South.