Indiana and North Carolina primaries

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.

Bigot.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

She's going nowhere.  "Full speed on to the White House," said  Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.

Full speed on with four flat tires, a leaky gas tank and a thrown rod.

Anyone still believe she's going to drop out before the convention.  There were reports she just loaned her campaign another $6.5mm.  She just doesn't know when to give up.

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

She's going nowhere.  "Full speed on to the White House," said  Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.

Full speed on with four flat tires, a leaky gas tank and a thrown rod.

Anyone still believe she's going to drop out before the convention.  There were reports she just loaned her campaign another $6.5mm.  She just doesn't know when to give up.

If she loses the nomination she is going for the nuclear option.  She'll take out the whole party.

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar



If she loses the nomination she is going for the nuclear option.  She'll take out the whole party.

It's hard to use the nuclear option when you don't have any weapons on you.

Seriously ... look at the situation. About the only argument she had left -- that she would win the popular vote -- got steamrolled Tuesday night. Obama gained 210,000 votes in his column. He's now ahead by 800,000.

He's ahead by 150 delegates, with fewer than 200 needed to clinch.

He's won 32 of 47 states.

Hillary can keep on, like Huckabee did. It's a free country. But like Huckabee, it's going to look foolish to keep using that strained, optimistic language in the face of stark reality.

Whatever leverage she had remaining in the Democratic Party, she's p*ssing it away fast.

Andrew Sullivan had a blog post yesterday that was interesting. It's the black vote that sealed Hillary's fate. It's the black vote that greatly helped her husband become president. But it's the black vote that turned her from the prohibitive favorite into a loser. It's a positively Shakespearean turnabout.

[iplaw]

That's what makes me wonder about Obama's chances in the fall.  I honestly think that white blue collar families who voted in huge numbers for Clinton may vote for McCain or stay home if Obama is the nominee.  The black vote is statistically small compared to blue collar whites, and if they defect it's bad news for Obama.

I rather look forward to watching debates with Obama and McCain, and would rather face him in the general than Clinton anyways, so it works for me.

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

That's what makes me wonder about Obama's chances in the fall.  I honestly think that white blue collar families who voted in huge numbers for Clinton may vote for McCain or stay home if Obama is the nominee.  The black vote is statistically small compared to blue collar whites, and if they defect it's bad news for Obama.

I rather look forward to watching debates with Obama and McCain, and would rather face him in the general than Clinton anyways, so it works for me.

Maybe.

But you'd better remember that both Clinton and Obama have stayed very close to McCain in the national polls, despite the sometimes-rancorous Democratic campaign and the fact McCain essentially has been on a honeymoon since he wrapped up the nomination.

The honeymoon's about to end. And the fact the GOP is having a terrible time attracting voters and money can't be an encouraging sign for them.

[RecycleMichael]

The republican party is in shambles. They have no chance in the fall to win the presidency and I predict many democrats winning close raise by the coattails of the democrat turnout.

McCain allows the republicans to lose with respect.

[iplaw]

McCain has been on vacation for a while, but I don't think he's the least bit concerned about having to run against Obama.  This election is going to come down to more than talking about "hope" and "change" especially in the debates to come.  Obama can't simply say, "no thanks" to one-on-one debates McCain as he did with Clinton, and expect to win.  After Obama's poor showing at the last debate on ABC I don't suspect he's excited to face off against someone of McCain's stature and experience.

[iplaw]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

The republican party is in shambles. They have no chance in the fall to win the presidency and I predict many democrats winning close raise by the coattails of the democrat turnout.

McCain allows the republicans to lose with respect.

With your record for picking winners lately this makes me feel pretty good.  

[]

[cannon_fodder]

Wow, when MSNBC tells it like it is you hav eto figure the game is over:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx

If Clinton wins her remaining states by 60%, Obama only wins his by 55%, and you count Florida and Michigan (giving ZERO to Obama) - Hillary can win by ~10,000 popular votes.  If you follow the poll numbers, she probably won't win by 60% and Obama will probably win Oregon by more than 55%.  OR, if you give Obama the "not Hillary" votes in Michigan  she comes up short.  And of course, if you don't count FL or MI she can not statistically win.

Per delegates.  If you count Michigan and Florida in the manner that the Hillary camp proposes - she needs to win 75% of the remaining delegates.  A margin of victory that is simply impossible to obtain.  

Add the fact that a couple Super delegates have defected today, and it looks like it's a done deal.  Basically, she can not win the pledged delegate battle nor the popular vote (two of her favorite talking points).  Her only chance is to sway super delegates, and I don't see that happening.

In spite of her rhetoric, I still stand by my prediction that she throws in the towel.  Unless she thinks WV and another $5mil of her cash will fool the super delegates into thinking she's still alive.

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

McCain has been on vacation for a while, but I don't think he's the least bit concerned about having to run against Obama.  This election is going to come down to more than talking about "hope" and "change" especially in the debates to come.  Obama can't simply say, "no thanks" to one-on-one debates McCain as he did with Clinton, and expect to win.  After Obama's poor showing at the last debate on ABC I don't suspect he's excited to face off against someone of McCain's stature and experience.

Feh. Obama had one bad debate out of what? Seventeen? Twenty-three? (Can't honestly remember, but there were a bunch ... well over a dozen.)

I'm certain Obama will be fine in debating McCain and isn't nervous about it. Unflappability is definitely one of his strong suits.

As for McCain, I'd recommend that he take some trucker speed or something, because he sounds sleeeeeepy when he talks.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

The republican party is in shambles.

Nice back-spin.

[}:)][}:)]

[iplaw]

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

McCain has been on vacation for a while, but I don't think he's the least bit concerned about having to run against Obama.  This election is going to come down to more than talking about "hope" and "change" especially in the debates to come.  Obama can't simply say, "no thanks" to one-on-one debates McCain as he did with Clinton, and expect to win.  After Obama's poor showing at the last debate on ABC I don't suspect he's excited to face off against someone of McCain's stature and experience.

Feh. Obama had one bad debate out of what? Seventeen? Twenty-three? (Can't honestly remember, but there were a bunch ... well over a dozen.)

I'm certain Obama will be fine in debating McCain and isn't nervous about it. Unflappability is definitely one of his strong suits.

As for McCain, I'd recommend that he take some trucker speed or something, because he sounds sleeeeeepy when he talks.

Most of those debates were not one-on-one debates, which is all that's left for him from here on out.  The scrutiny is much greater when the numbers decrease.  Unflappability certainly does not describe what most of us saw in the last debate.

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

Most of those debates were not one-on-one debates, which is all that's left for him from here on out.  The scrutiny is much greater when the numbers decrease.  Unflappability certainly does not describe what most of us saw in the last debate.

True. But, again, it was just one bad debate out of several. And I think you're assigning too much value to debates nowadays.

Bush had, by all accounts, terrible debates with Kerry in 2004, and Bush still won the election.

And, again, you've got 70-80 percent of the people who think the country is seriously off-track, according to multiple polls. You think a majority of them are going to vote for a guy who's going to be painted as a continuation of a enormously unpopular president? I don't.

[iplaw]

Try and paint away, but he's about as far away from W as you can be and still gets wear the uniform.

You should hope for your party's sake that that was just "one bad debate" and not a sign of weakness under pressure.  Most of those previous debates were friendly and he's about to enter quite an adversarial process from here on out.