Global warming causes record disasters

[FOTD]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,22917765-2703,00.html

"The report warned that vulnerable groups in society such as women, disabled people, the elderly and ethnic minorities face extra hardships when coping with natural disasters. "

"In 2006, the International Federation of the Red Cross recorded 427 natural disasters, a rise of 70 per cent in the two years since 2004. "

you ain't seen nothing yet

[rhymnrzn]

Exrtaordinary patterns are at work for sure.  Look at the present reality: Oklahoma is recording record amount of precipitation in 2007, meanwhile, certain areas are sustaining severe drought.

[Conan71]

Feh.  Fish through the recorded climatological records of the earth over the last 100 years and you will see extraordinary years or groups of years.  This is nothing new.

Many of the record highs around the US happened in the first half of the last century.  What's that tell us?

A) That there are some years which don't follow "average" years.

B) Weather observation has become more of an acute science in the last half century, moreso in the last 20.  There is better recording equipment now, but climatologial research prior to recorded history hinges on some very loose assumptions and understandings of what statistial sampling indicates.

C) You can manipulate and extrapolate data to support any issue you want.  Some scientists have used data to suport global warming.  Others with equal credentials have used the exact same data to dispell notions of global warming.

D) No one really has a definitive answer about the reality or lack thereof of human-caused global warming.

[rhymnrzn]

I do not echo your idle sentiment, conan.  We should be giving our voices for the resting of entire lands, or we can continue to grind it out and watch the land effectually spue man out of it.  The way certain nations are trodding their way to military stand-off, and such things as major oil spills, one will not want to so much as strike a match.

[Wingnut]

While I haven't looked at one in a few years, the Farmers Almanac boasts an 80% accuracy rate, if I remember correctly. They predict by looking at records and trending data, nothing real scientific.
The persimmons seeds last year called for a lot of snow, and the same again this year. Squirrel tails are bushier this year, also meaning a cold, bad winter. It looks like we're off to a good start.
Nothing like letting nature tell you what it's up to.

[cannon_fodder]

Worthless article.  The entire debate on Global Warming aside, this article says nothing of worth.

0) This article presupposes it is global warming related.  It makes NO effort to actual show such, just merely states the "fact" and leaves it at that.

What's more, of those disasters listed NEARLY 50% are not weather related.  Which is to say nearly 50% is caused by man, mostly war.  What roll in the increase is caused by an increase in man made disasters?

1) Every event "hits the poor the hardest."  Economic downturns, food shortages, war, or climate change.  It is inherent in the word poor - having wealth enables one to buy things and being poor is the lack of wealth.  Thus, the inability to buy things increases ones exposure to such events (buy food, buy a new home, escape war, savings to live on etc.)

Do we really need to have a new report point that out over and over nearly every month?

Vulnerable Groups...face extra harships...
Thus the term vulnerable.

2) "A rise of 70 % in 2 years"

Thank you for proving my point.  Either climate change is SO DRASTIC that it is increasing disasters at an exponential rate (which one would think would be evident) or this is an example of correlation and no causation.

What else could have caused an increase in natural disasters in recent decades?  Doubling of the human population (and thus our exposure to them?), the shrinking of our world (and thus an Earthquake ANYWHERE making the news), redefining what counts as a disaster (a few million dead Chinese in a flood of the Yellow river barely counted in the 1920's).

Better reporting of smaller disasters partially explains these increases.

Wait, your own article answers the question.

2) Thus far there is nothing statistically significant about the last 10 years.  The average sea level has not statistically changed, the amount of precipitation is statically acceptable,  and the number of large storms has remained neutral.  Much of what you are seeing/hearing is a placebo effect.

You were told you would see strange weather because of Global Warming and so you do.  In the 1970's we were told Global Cooling would do the same thing and articles, headlines, and UN summits were held to combat the problem.  In the 1930's Oklahoma had a weee little drought which was caused by fluctuations in ocean temperatures.  For the better part of a decade rain levels were extremely low, and then returned to normal.

4)rhymnrzn  - hyperbole much?  Lake Eerie actually caught on fire once, in the 1970's.  Compared to the state of affairs in previous years the environment is pristine.  Ever seen a coal fired burner sans any scrubber?  Ever driven behind a car w/o a catalytic converter?  Seen an open pool of oil?  All were standard practices as late as 1974.

and if we did decide to "rest entire lands" (instead of the current set aside programs used to rest lands) who do you suggest we tell to starve?  Africa?  The Arabs?  North Koreans?  Whatever you suggest I'm sure the millions who starve to death are happy they are doing so for the greater good of Americans.

5)Wingnut - no offense, but I put little faith in the weather predictions of squirrel tales and persimmons seeds.   A squirrels tale is a result of genetics and the health of the animal.  Persimmon seeds are the same.    The squirrel is particularly easy to test - take a red squirrel from Oregon and stick him in Iowa... then watch to see if his tail grows or if he just freezes to death come December.

Basically, nature can react to changes in immediate weather patterns (temperature drops = cold blooded crickets chirp slower.  Pressure Drops some animals know it could forecast rain. Sun goes down = less radiation = flower close) and trends in the moon or sun (net less sun = winter is coming.  more sun = warmer = time to grow).  They have no knowledge of oceanic currents, solar flares, nor melting ice in Greenland.

So while I have great respect for the evolved mechanism nature has to predict and react to upcoming events, I do not believe a squirrel has secret knowledge of the upcoming winter.  What's more, no scientific experiment has ever shown a link.  So as neat as it would certainly be (and not wholly unbelievable) I remain unconvinced.
- - -

I'm not anti-Global Warming.  I have no political nor religious stake this this (remember, many fundamentalists think this is a religious issue because their God gave them the Earth to exploit and they are supposed to multiply... clearly He controls the Earth).  I simply remain unconvinced that Global Warming is a fact, and the more quashing of dissent that I see in the scientific community the more concerned and skeptical I become.

The theory sounds plausible, but when you have a theory you test it.  You do not declare it fact because the theory is plausible and the result is what you desire.  There is little scientific proof that Global Warming is an actual phenomenon nor that, if it should be, its effects would be negative.

So while I welcome independence from oil (for pollution, political and economic reasons), reduced emissions, and a healthier planet for humans - I fail to see how draconian measures or doom and gloom hyperbole is currently called for.

[FOTD]

way to go cf....i knew you had it in you.

btw....it's not winter yet.

[rhymnrzn]

Cannon Fodder, what a weariness your reasoning is to follow: you tie matters together with cart rope, about who sacrifices what, at a time when we ought to fear to take one more thread to a shoe latchet, and not prolong the enslavement of the nations.  I heard much yea and nay, and much pondering.

A sabbath year system should have already been organized for the good of not only lands, but people aswell: but if it must be born of miracles and judgement from the LORD, so be it.  But I bet plently of consensus could be found........

[spoonbill]

The arrogance!

News Flash!

You have very little control over the environment!

11,000 years ago most of the United States was covered in ice.  60,000 years before that, it was very very hot.  

Last week the main climate research organizations, The Royal Meteorological Society, reversed their stance on CO2 production and it's link to Global warming.  There is very little if any affect we can have on the temperature of the earth, the polar ice caps, and even what we consider "green house gasses."  

The natural fluctuations of the earth are far more powerful then we (or Al Gore) can imagine.

Climatic studies over the last 20 years have failed to take into consideration other models.  Why?

From 1850 to 2000 the US increased carbon output to 8 billion tons a year from Coal, Oil and Automobiles. Wow! that sounds scary.  World wide this comes to about 26 Billion tons each year.  Holy Cr@p!  We're gonna die!  This must be the cause of global warming!!!!  Right?

Unfortunately the global temperature rise, glacial decrease and polar ice retreat started just prior to the year 1800 (it should be noted that my Lincoln Navigator was built after this date).  This coincides with large fluctuations in solar activity (called solar variability).  The Royal Meteorological Society published the link last week, and NASAs own data confirmed the Solar Variability model.  This week the research has become so compelling they have been able to link climate patterns of previous 130,000 years directly to these solar events.  The study shows that the human CO2 contribution has only been responsible for less than 1% of climatic activity if any.

Don't feel bad, it's not your fault, you were taught to think this way. I understand your arrogance, and applaud you for trying to think that you (and we, as a race) are so powerful, but in reality, we are of very little consequence to our planet.  In the next 10,000 to 20,000 years we will cease to exist and there will be very little evidence that we ever walked (or drove our SUVs on) this planet.  Our demise is inevitable.  It has happened several times in the past.  The geologic record is a mass murder scene.  The Earth will kill us, but not by US changing the climate.  

However, our Egos demand that we place ourselves on a pedestal.  Political ambitions rely on saving us from our doom.  And, scientists need to be controversial to obtain grants, so. . . run little rabbits, run.  Scurry this way and that.  At least you occupy yourselves with your own self importance.  I guess this keeps the rest of us from having to babysit you.

Now we try to inject race, religion, sex, wealth and other meaningless factors into the debate.  Great!  Play with that toy for a while.

Rich minds have goals.
Poor minds seek causes.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by rhymnrzn

Cannon Fodder, what a weariness your reasoning is to follow: you tie matters together with cart rope, about who sacrifices what, at a time when we ought to fear to take one more thread to a shoe latchet, and not prolong the enslavement of the nations.  I heard much yea and nay, and much pondering.

A sabbath year system should have already been organized for the good of not only lands, but people aswell: but if it must be born of miracles and judgement from the LORD, so be it.  But I bet plently of consensus could be found........

"We're all going to hell..." Beelzebub (he told me so....he speaks to me...and he speaks through me...at least I think it's his voice)

Big Coal's Dirty Plans for Our Energy Future (with shocking photos)http://alternet.org/story/70475/

[cks511]

http://icecap.us/index.php

[cannon_fodder]

Well that's a point.  Even the scientist that firmly believe in Global Warming readily warn that in the not too geologically distant future we will have another ice age.  Then those hippies will be thanking me for driving my Hummer (don't have a Hummer, but saying Nissan just doesnt have the same effect)!

[Wingnut]

Weather Lore predictors