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How low can it go? The Dow.

Started by Neptune, March 02, 2009, 09:18:49 AM

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TheArtist

#15
March 02, 2009, 11:18:02 PM Last Edit: March 02, 2009, 11:19:02 PM by TheArtist
Dow around 4500,,, oil 25$ a barrel,,,artist living under a bridge. (but at least there will be around 50 shiny new ones to pick from [:D] )

"When you only have two pennies left in the world, buy a loaf of bread with one, and a lily with the other."-Chinese proverb. "Arts a staple. Like bread or wine or a warm coat in winter. Those who think it is a luxury have only a fragment of a mind. Mans spirit grows hungry for art in the same way h

Wilbur

#16
March 03, 2009, 05:47:40 AM
Glenn Beck predicted a 7500 DOW along time ago.  He is now predicting a 5000 DOW, but also believes a 3000 DOW is probable.

And, I still keep buying.  Even upped my buying a few short months ago.  Thinking about upping it some more.

Gaspar

#17
March 03, 2009, 05:57:34 AM
quote:
Originally posted by TheArtist

Dow around 4500,,, oil 25$ a barrel,,,artist living under a bridge. (but at least there will be around 50 shiny new ones to pick from [:D] )




And, the one you're living under will get fantastic murals painted on it.
[:)]
When attacked by a mob of clowns, always go for the juggler.

cannon_fodder

#18
March 03, 2009, 08:24:01 AM
Guido:

Did you list Califor...

wait, I get it.  Sarcasm.

Never mind.  Move along.  Nothing to see here.  My "what the hell-o-meter" went off and it took a minute for my sarcasm-o-meter to catch up.

[:D]
- - - - - - - - -
I crush grooves.

Conan71

#19
March 03, 2009, 11:02:07 AM
Other than averaging down some of my buys when the Dow was at 8000 to 9000, I'm going to wait before plowing too much more into individual stocks.  I'm betting cannon_fodder is happy he didn't jump on GE when I told him to.  When I bought, the dividend worked out to about a 10% return.  Now they've slashed the dividend (won't happen till Q3) and the stock is trading more than $5.00 less per share than when I bought it. [xx(]

BUT... that was a long-term play for me.  GE is a well-run company and the value and dividends will come back.  This one will be a good one to average down, I just can't seem to figure the bottom on that one.

There's been rumors that the Dow would plummet to about this level, then come up with a sucker's rally of 2000 pts or so, then fall out to the 5000 level.  Just repeating what I read.  I didn't start the rumor. [;)]
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Wrinkle

#20
March 03, 2009, 11:13:00 AM
One must take into account what might happen if things really get bad. And, they may.



we vs us

#21
March 03, 2009, 11:41:41 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle

One must take into account what might happen if things really get bad. And, they may.






Glenn Beck's one step ahead of you.

Neptune

#22
March 03, 2009, 01:27:57 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Conan71

Other than averaging down some of my buys when the Dow was at 8000 to 9000, I'm going to wait before plowing too much more into individual stocks.


That's about where I'm at.  Individual stocks are currently not my bag.  

GE is probably strong enough and well run enough to come out of this.  Probably a solid long-term play, and it's at a pre-"tech-bubble" price.

I was looking at the Great Depression, and somewhere I read that the Dow didn't beat it's pre-Depression high until 1954.  25 years.  That's a long time, of course we're only at about 50% off the high right now.

Conan71

#23
March 03, 2009, 02:13:44 PM Last Edit: March 03, 2009, 02:16:55 PM by Conan71
quote:
Originally posted by Neptune

quote:
Originally posted by Conan71

Other than averaging down some of my buys when the Dow was at 8000 to 9000, I'm going to wait before plowing too much more into individual stocks.


That's about where I'm at.  Individual stocks are currently not my bag.  

GE is probably strong enough and well run enough to come out of this.  Probably a solid long-term play, and it's at a pre-"tech-bubble" price.

I was looking at the Great Depression, and somewhere I read that the Dow didn't beat it's pre-Depression high until 1954.  25 years.  That's a long time, of course we're only at about 50% off the high right now.


Here's one facet of today's market that we have not really touched on here.  I think one reason the markets reached as high as they did, why they doubled in 12 years, why the dotcom bubble happened, and now why they are back down is largely due to the advent of on-line trading.

Think about it, how many truly educated and sophisiticated investors are there in the markets?  I'm most definitely not.  I don't really approach it from a scientific viewpoint, more hunch, history, a sort of a Buffett mentality of "do I understand this company or it's product?", and the occasional "what the hell" dice roll.  

On-line trading opened the door for people to do their own trades without the tempering influence of a broker.  Used to be, you'd call your guy down at the local Merrill Lynch office, tell him what you wanted to buy or sell.  He might offer advice to hang on a little longer or recommend another issue which was more commensurate with your risk tolerance and growth goals.  It's brought a lot more impulsiveness to the investment markets.  People get scared, they do a huge sell-off and it dominoes.

IOW- I think this will rebound quicker than the great depression.  I don't think 14,000 is within reach for another 10 years, but 10K is realistic by the end of Obamas first term, depending on how soon the recovery starts.  IMO, Obama will need numbers like that to get re-elected, otherwise he will go down in history as another Carter.  Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the guy and more-or-less betting on him.

Ah, one more thing, the SEC would have done well by retirees and "innocent" victims of the market to rein in short-selling back in July.  I'm assuming the same people who benefitted from commodity market pumping last year have been cashing in the whole way down on the Dow & S&P by shorting.
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Hometown

#24
March 03, 2009, 03:01:03 PM Last Edit: March 03, 2009, 03:03:08 PM by Hometown
If only we knew where it is going from here.  I think I've lost about $250,000.  Many people are in the same boat.

The truth is the market never got back to where it should have been after the dot com bust.  But oh my, 14,000 looks good now.

If we are going to have a Depression and if it is going to mirror '29 it should take it's final dive to the bottom soon.  In which case you will be glad you held onto whatever cash you have.  Great fortunes were made with cash in the Depression.

And what I'm reading about oil and Oklahoma makes me believe our Real Estate will hold up in spurts this year but will drop into a prolonged slump next year.

Many people are trying to find some advantage in the crisis.  And of course most things will come back (though not all stocks equally) but the question is when?

Oil, of course oil will come back stronger than ever -- one of these days.  And now's the time for Tulsa to broaden her niche in the oil business.

YoungTulsan

#25
March 03, 2009, 03:17:38 PM
Now that the people who, at 12,000, never would have believed or admitted we were in a problem that would drive the Dow to 7,000 are saying it could go lower, we are probably near the bottom.
 

joiei

#26
March 03, 2009, 03:53:29 PM
quote:
Originally posted by we vs us

quote:
Originally posted by Wrinkle

One must take into account what might happen if things really get bad. And, they may.






Glenn Beck's one step ahead of you.
Glenn Beck is your financial advisor?
It's hard being a Diamond in a rhinestone world.
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