What Tulsa should be doing.

[Kenosha]

The last line of this speech says it all. I won't spoil it for you.

James Calaway, CEO of the Center for Houston's Future, gave a very insightful talk on nanotechnology and energy at the conference on "Keeping Houston the Energy Capital" jointly sponsored by the University of Houston and the Houston Technology Center. James is a strong support of nanotechnology and its importance to Texas and Houston. He is also a member the Foundation's Board of Champions.

Here is the text of the speech.


Keeping Houston the Energy Capital of the World
"As the CEO of the Center for Houston's Future I am tasked with leading an organization looking out over the horizon and developing plans for Houston's remarkable future. In doing so we are forced to consider possible alternative futures and to, at a minimum raise the alternative futures as possibilities. In other words, to develop scenarios that help expand our consideration of the complexities and uncertainties of the future. While no one is really capable of knowing the future, it is instructive to consider alternative futures to better inform the choices we make today.

"So what do we know today?

"We know that Houston is currently the energy capital of the world. There is no other city with our level of energy industry experience and leadership, investment resources and technical expertise.

"Our position as the world's energy capital is a major pull for people, companies and foreign governments. We are the home to corporate headquarters and offices of every major energy company in the world. Energy is also a main attraction for the 70 international consulates based in Houston. Looking into the future, these people, companies and governments expect that Houston will remain the center of the world's energy industry.

"We can also safely assume that demand for energy, particularly electricity will continue to grow as the world's economy expands.

"We can also safely assume that technology, particularly on the nanoscale, will have a significant impact on the energy industry. As the Capital of Energy, the world will, for now, be looking to Houston for its vision and innovation in meeting expected demand.

"Where is energy policy headed?

"There are two basic world views regarding the future of the energy industry. Both assume an increase in the demand for energy worldwide. Where they differ is in the timing and mix of market share between hydrocarbons and renewable energy.

"The first is the traditional world view that in the foreseeable future the overwhelming majority of our energy needs will come from hydrocarbon fuels. It is the dominate view held by most energy experts and business leaders, particularly within the Houston business community. While this view is difficult to refute based upon extrapolating the present realities or through a definitive understanding of renewable technologies, there are growing questions about the long-term viability, both economically and environmentally, for basing the world's energy future on the combustion of hydrocarbons.

"The other world view sees an increasing role for renewable energy to meet future demand. Proponents believe that advances in technologies such as solar, wind, and fuel cells will, in the not so distant future, become the preferred and perhaps majority base of our energy supplies.

"What this world view cannot provide is an accurate forecast of market timing and mixture. We simply do not know when or how much these technologies will impact the energy industry.

"The first world view is well known- especially among those of us in this room. Today I want to explore this second view... the one that may be the hardest for the Houston community to imagine and to act upon in a timely manner. Yet, it could have a tremendous economic impact on our region if we underestimate its relevancy in the future.

"Today we see the early shifts in the energy policies of major cities, states and nations, who are declaring target goals and establishing laws for energy produced from renewable resources. The most common target is 20% by 2020. Just last month China set a target of 10% renewable by 2010- an ambitious target to say the least.

"These targets are the result of many factors including environmental concerns, energy independence, and expected economic viability of energy based on renewable technologies.

"I want to the ask you to imagine a world with me. Twenty or thirty years into the future, in a world economy built upon advances in material science from nanotechnology. We have all heard the promise of nanotechnology on biology, computing and electronics. But I want to look out and imagine its impact on the energy industry. And I want to explore the potential for Houston to expand its role and lead this transformation.

"Imagine a world of materials familiar to today's engineers- yet fundamentally different in cost and performance. How may nanotechnology improve our catalysts, ceramics, and membranes? Will nano-science create new classes of materials able to change the energy industry? Will nano-biologists create new enzymes or microorganisms useful for energy production from biomass, or biological solutions to pollution?

"Now imagine the potential of a hydrocarbon energy industry that is infinitely cleaner and more efficient than today. Imagine low cost solutions to capturing harmful emissions. Imagine nanoscale engineered materials that allow us to tap our vast supply of coal without jeopardizing our environment.

"How will these advances in material science impact the energy industry? Will these materials support the long held vision of distributed energy production and power generation?

"Imagine transmission lines built from carbon nanotubes that conduct electricity without loss across great distances. How could this change the implementation and economics of wind and solar power?

"At the local level, picture a decentralized grid network that is more dynamic and robust than today. This electricity web- built around appliance sized devices that deliver and store energy without disruption and at a low cost. Imagine greater energy capacity and better management of our power plants through 'electricity reserves' stored in the form of hydrogen that is kept onsite in our homes, offices and factories. Now imagine these reserves also serving as the basis of our transportation fuel.

"What is the future of alternative energy? Imagine the potential of wind farms combined with superconductive transmission lines and hydrogen storage to manage downtime.

"Imagine the potential of cheaply produced solar cells based on polymer materials. Imagine these solar cells integrated into common objects: rooftops, building exteriors—or any fixed outdoor structure. Any excess electricity not used on the grid would be converted and stored locally as hydrogen.

"Imagine the expansion of our natural gas industry into electricity and transportation fuel markets. Fuel cells in homes, offices and factories, fed from gas lines, producing electricity and cogeneration heat at a lower cost than electricity from large power plants.

"What if natural gas and small reformers were the major source of hydrogen for fleets of personal and commercial fuel cell vehicles? What if our nation's fueling centers were based out of our homes, in parking lots and work places rather than at corner gas stations?

"Imagine the activity and grid capacity potential of a massive electricity network as interconnected and robust as today's Internet. The network might evolve (organically) around hardware based at the consumer level. The common standards for this network could be electricity for transmission and hydrogen for storage- and fuel cells for delivery.

"Who will be the producers of these devices? What will be their business model? What are the brand names of tomorrow's energy industry? Shell, BP or ExxonMobil? Or will it be General Electric? General Motors? Or Dell?

"Now imagine producers of these devices increasing performance and driving down costs as quickly as the personal computer industry in the past twenty years. What if their goal was to sell consumers easy to use and cost effective hardware for meeting their energy and fuel needs at home and for their vehicles? Imagine the same level of disruption that occurred with the centralized mainframe system on future plans for construction of large scale power plants.

"So we have taken a look at some of the possible futures. I do not, nor does anyone else, know exactly how and when things will change. But given the transformative nature of nanoscale sciences, we should assume that our energy future will evolve in ways different than conventional wisdom in Houston today.

"The question then is: What can Houston do now, to secure its continued position as the energy capital of the world into the next century?

"First, we must recognize the potential of nanoscale science on the energy industry— both hydrocarbon and renewables. We should also investigate its potential for reshaping the way electricity is transmitted, stored and delivered to consumers— including the role of fuel feedstocks and hardware for distributive generation.

"We should develop a coherent and aggressive agenda to increase funding and accelerate fundamental research, for nanoscale energy work being conducted at Rice University, the University of Houston, and Texas A&M. Yes, we are fortunate to have some of the world's leading experts in nanotechnology. But competition for the development and commercialization of nano-materials will be global. Regions are positioning themselves today as future centers of nanotechnology. We cannot afford to lose our position in nanoscale energy research and development.

"Today there are hundreds of millions of federal dollars being distributed for energy related research to Universities and private companies. These dollars should be coming to our region. Instead they are increasingly going to places like Michigan, Central New York, Connecticut and California.

"Second, to remain competitive in the world energy market we should begin recruitment of companies and individual experts currently engaged in the development and commercialization of alternative and distributive energy technologies. And we should develop Houston based venture capital funds to nurture start-up energy companies involved in renewable energy.

"We should not underestimate the potential market size of renewable energy. Changes in government policy, public opinion and innovation could lead to a larger than anticipated market for clean energy.

"Finally, with the hard work underway, we should bring this message out into the world, promoting our region as the Capital of All Energy- not just petroleum and natural gas.

"While no one can say for certain what the future will bring for the energy industry, I hope that I have given you some possible scenarios to consider.

"What I am certain of, is that there is no other region in the world more capable of meeting the demands of global energy— and for leading in the development of nanotechnology energy solutions.

"We only need the vision to carry us forward."

As stated earlier, the Nanotechnology Foundation believes that what we do with these opportunities may mean the difference in being the Tulsa of the 21st century or the Silicon Valley of the 21st century.


http://www.nanotechfoundation.org/Newsletter/Newsletter_June2Supplement_2004.html#1