South American War? (long)

[cannon_fodder]

Chavez is at it again.  This got long, so I added a few headings.  Many people have no idea what the background is, so I've taken it in steps.

Who is the FARC?

He has formed a close alliance with several groups in Columbia that the Columbian government and the United State's has been fighting for decades.  Both the FARC and ELN started as leftist guerrilla revolutions  but have  since turned into drug smuggling cartels and are listed terrorist organizations with the United States, Canada, the EU and of course the Columbian government.  The FARC was official ousted from the Communist Party in 1980's for their growing involvement with the drug trade.  Human's Right Watch and Amnesty International both label the FARC as a group with "flagrant disregard for the live's of civilians"  and their murder list includes village leaders, politicians, journalists, and even missionaries.

The FARC is the larger of the two and is considered the leading processor and distributor of cocaine in the world.  It is heavily involved in the racketeering, bribery, corruption, kidnapping and murder that goes along with the international drug trade as well as gun running, hostages, and bomb making.  FARC is estimated to take in $400,000,000 annually – half from the drug trade and half from extortion, ransom, and theft.  Their ranks include volunteers, paid mercenaries, village conscripts and children forced into service.

They currently hold several journalists, 41 politicians, and a slew of other prisoners pending ransom or demands.  Last year they executed  11 political prisoners when their demands were not met.  FARC is responsible for many attacks, bombings, and deaths in areas they do not control on politicians, military targets, and civilian centers and an unknown number of acts in areas they control (15-20% of the rural areas).

http://www.cfr.org/publication/9272/
http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/AMR23/036/2003/en/686a3b6b-a3b6-11dc-9d08-f145a8145d2b/amr230362003en.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/06/09/penhaul.childsoldiers.btsc/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4751938.stm
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/farc/

What I'm saying is the FARC are drug dealing bad guys.

Hugo Likes the FARC:

Next door our friend Hugo Chavez: Who nationalized foreign companies and thus stopped all investment in his country as well as having his nations over seas assets frozen. Who took over media outlets and has complete control over content. Who's political opponents keep having accidents.  Who has the right to rule by decree  And who threatens his own citizens with "taxing" their assets if they are subversive."took over the media, right to rule by decree, private individuals must do as the state says or risk having their assets "taxed..." has been having some trouble.  His policies have lead to a shortage of basic goods, a loss of jobs, and a decrease in the national standard of living.  He suffered a defeat en mass on his last power attempt (essentially would have made him dictator for life) and his popularity is waining – so he has been doing some serious saber rattling.

Not too long ago Hugo announce that the FARC were friends of Venezuela and were fighting the imperial American's in Columbia.  He essentially announced an open strategic alliance with them and they have been operating freely from Venezuela to raid in Columbia and return.  They get treatment for gunshots so they can heal and return to battle.  They hold prisoners in Venezuela. And there are even insinuations that some borders crossings are actually controlled by the FARC.  The government is openly, if not quietly, providing actual support to FARC – going so far as to allow processing and distribution of cocaine.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-rebels24feb24,0,1969856.story
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080225/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_rebel_refuge

What is this all about?

The FARC rebels operate a similar MO along the Ecuadorian border.  And there is equal reason to believe Equator is on the FARC payroll and enables their operations.  Columbia has officially requested support from both Venezuela and Ecuador and/or permission to enter their territories to attack known camp locations and have been denied.

Over the weekend Columbia was attacked from 1 mile within Ecuador and learned that a FARC leader was camped several miles inside the Ecuadorian border.  They launched an attack and over ran the camp.   They killed the guy in question and 16 other fighters as well as confiscating weapons, plans and documents.   Among them "Colombia's government said yesterday documents found in a jungle camp in Ecuador where Colombia troops killed Mr. Reyes showed ties between the FARC rebels and [the president of Ecuador], including contacts with his government about political proposals."  

In response, Mr. Chavez (of Venezuela NOT Ecuador mind you) has mobilized 10 Battalions including his tank battalions, order his air force to begin flying the border, and recalled his navel vessels to territorial waters.  He has broken off diplomatic ties with Columbia, expelled their diplomat, and recalled his own.  He paid "tribute to a true revolutionary, who was Raul Reyes," referring to the man who was first in command of their drug production and smuggling operations.   In addition to drug charges Mr. Reyes is wanted in the murder of 420 Columbian Civilians, 218 military personnel, kidnappings, and a plot on Bill Clinton's life in 2000. (another guy killed had 16 warrants for 60 murders out for his arrest).  In spite of his long record and multiple warrants for arrest Hugo decried his killing as a "cowardly murder."

Chavez added, "[w]e don't want war, but we aren't going to permit the U.S. empire ... to come to divide us."  

Ecuador has also mobilized to the border, which is a much more sympathetic situation.  Their sovereignty was invaded even if it was under what I consider a legit pretense (like Turkey going into Iraq recently or Afghanistan forces going into Pakistan).  Frankly, if I am attacked from your country and you do nothing to stop it, I will.  They have also dissolved diplomatic ties with Columbia.

http://www.state.gov/p/inl/narc/rewards/63841.htm (USA wanted poster: $5mil)
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080303/FOREIGN/933500764/1001&template=nextpage
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8V5H5TG1&show_article=1
http://www.army.mil.co/?idcategoria=199307

So What?

So this will all end badly.  Steps to formally declaring war include provocation, official break in diplomatic ties, mobilization of forces... the next step is war.  Chavez has done everything short of ordering an invasion of Columbia.  Whom we would certainly protect.

Not that it would be much of a war. Active forces are about 87,000 with about 100 helicopters, less than 100 main battle tanks (+150 light tanks), 16 AA missiles, and about 50 fighters (14 Su-30MKV, 10 F-16s, and the rest older).   Their Navy consists of 6 light frigates and 2 subs.  Their annual military budget would sustain our forces for about a day.  They are under a US Military embargo for threatening an attack of US territory, so their hardware is Russian (same as Saddam's army).  In essence, one US Navy battle group would destroy them...

But that's not the point.  Is the guy crazy enough to start a war in an attempt to be a "hero" by taking on the United States or is he just doing more saber rattling?  In any event, coupled with his constant threats, relations with drug dealers, and dictatorial powers this is a very concerning situation that is not getting much attention in the USA.

My guess is Hugo's chest puffing subsides and nothing comes of it except some dead drug lords, but he might be crazy enough to push the issue as far as he can – which could lead to trouble.  Luckily Columbia is playing the roll of grown-up and has not mobilized it's own forces.  It maintains that it did not violate Ecuadorian air space and only crossed the border to retrieve bodies and/or useful documents.

The latest:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/index.html

[cannon_fodder]

Well more good news.  CNN is now reporting that additional computer files that were confiscated indicate that Chavez received 100,000,000 Pesos when he was in jail for an attempted coup.  He has since given $300,000,000 USD to FARC in repayment and FARC has allegedly used that money to purchase "50 kilograms of uranium this month."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Lets see... guerrilla group funnels money to a man who attempted a military coup.  That then man manages to fund a campaign and take over the presidency and the congress.  $300mil is then given to a terrorist group by Chavez.

Nice.

[FOTD]

This particular piece of news is all over the place. Ecuador is also sending troops to the border and withdrawn its Ambassador to Colombia.
"The slaying of Reyes and 16 other rebels in Ecuador on Saturday has sharply raised tensions between the three Andean neighbors."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_colombia

Colombia's govt is a US stooge. Chavez a pig. We don't need a cold war on behalf of Exxon though.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:Colombia's govt is a US stooge.

They cooperate with the US against the drug trade in exchange for military assistance and foreign aid.  They remain a democratically elected institution (multi party, no BS single or duel party system) with "free and fair" elections per the UN.  If cooperation in exchange for aid (let alone against tyrants who the people were tired of) makes a nation a stooge of the US the vast majority of countries are US stooges as nearly all are on the take.

And Columbia is not an oil exporter.  I do not have time atm but I imagine Exxon has few operations there and there case is going well enough in the international courts they don't need the US Government's help.

[we vs us]

I'd suggest being leary of Chavez's anti-American rhetoric.  It's tempting to see him as yet another Foe of America, but dollars to donuts 90% of his ranting and raving is to solidify his position at home and in the region (cf. Putin, Ahmedinejad, Kim Jong Il, et al.)  

None of these guys can realistically threaten our interests, so you have to ask, what are they really trying to accomplish?  And the answer is, very little to do with us on a global security level.  

We're the handiest bad guy out there, not much more than that.

That Chavez has actually decided to scramble his armed forces against a neighbor is really disturbing, though.  From a realpolitik standpoint, the nail that stands up must be pounded down, and he's been volunteering himself as the tallest nail around for quite awhile now.  This would be the biggest "hey look at me!" moment yet.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by we vs us

I'd suggest being leary of Chavez's anti-American rhetoric.  It's tempting to see him as yet another Foe of America, but dollars to donuts 90% of his ranting and raving is to solidify his position at home and in the region (cf. Putin, Ahmedinejad, Kim Jong Il, et al.)  

None of these guys can realistically threaten our interests, so you have to ask, what are they really trying to accomplish?  And the answer is, very little to do with us on a global security level.  

We're the handiest bad guy out there, not much more than that.

That Chavez has actually decided to scramble his armed forces against a neighbor is really disturbing, though.  From a realpolitik standpoint, the nail that stands up must be pounded down, and he's been volunteering himself as the tallest nail around for quite awhile now.  This would be the biggest "hey look at me!" moment yet.

Let's say Chavez does not have the direct means to attack us on American soil.  If he attacks our allies in South America, we undoubtedly get sucked into yet another conflict which costs tax payers money through troops, diplomacy, and supplies.

Any of those guys could realistically compromise American interests in many different ways.  Think about how bad the world oil market would get jacked up if Chavez cut off all oil exports from Venezuela for a month.  

Putin could supply Iran or NK w/ nuclear capabilities or long range missles, maybe some bio weapons.  Russia also has a good oil supply.

Never underestimate the potential danger of despots and potential despots.

[cannon_fodder]

Wevus I agree for the most part.  To this point he has done nothing really against our interest.  Well, I take that back.  He has done a few minor things:

1) Propped up the Castros (to what if any effect)
2) Supported the FARC, flooding America with cocaine and hindering our Columbian allies - and perhaps funded their nuclear ambitions
3) Cozied up to our enemies and bolstered their positions
4) Harmed American economic interests (which the courts seem to be handling)
5) and tarnished our image (if Chavez can do it, so can we!)

None of that is a big deal (except maybe the FARC thing) require any significant action.  I think our non-response response is actually appropriate for him.  But this step towards action is alarming especially given the wag-the-dog need for a distraction as things are not going to plan domestically (food shortages, basic needs not being met, high and rising unemployment).

[Breadburner]

Typical hispanic tyrant....Full of $hit and rhetoric.....He reminds me of Khadafi....

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

Typical hispanic tyrant....Full of $hit and rhetoric.....He reminds me of Khadafi....

Khadafi is not hispanic. But nice of you to stop by with one of your zingers.....hit and run.

[Breadburner]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

Typical hispanic tyrant....Full of $hit and rhetoric.....He reminds me of Khadafi....

Khadafi is not hispanic. But nice of you to stop by with one of your zingers.....hit and run.

No $hit Obamalock......

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

quote:Originally posted by we vs us

I'd suggest being leary of Chavez's anti-American rhetoric.  It's tempting to see him as yet another Foe of America, but dollars to donuts 90% of his ranting and raving is to solidify his position at home and in the region (cf. Putin, Ahmedinejad, Kim Jong Il, et al.)  

None of these guys can realistically threaten our interests, so you have to ask, what are they really trying to accomplish?  And the answer is, very little to do with us on a global security level.  

We're the handiest bad guy out there, not much more than that.

That Chavez has actually decided to scramble his armed forces against a neighbor is really disturbing, though.  From a realpolitik standpoint, the nail that stands up must be pounded down, and he's been volunteering himself as the tallest nail around for quite awhile now.  This would be the biggest "hey look at me!" moment yet.

Let's say Chavez does not have the direct means to attack us on American soil.  If he attacks our allies in South America, we undoubtedly get sucked into yet another conflict which costs tax payers money through troops, diplomacy, and supplies.

Any of those guys could realistically compromise American interests in many different ways.  Think about how bad the world oil market would get jacked up if Chavez cut off all oil exports from Venezuela for a month.  

Putin could supply Iran or NK w/ nuclear capabilities or long range missles, maybe some bio weapons.  Russia also has a good oil supply.

Never underestimate the potential danger of despots and potential despots.

I guess my point is, it doesn't pay to see enemies everywhere, because it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.  We tend to see terrorism and threat under every rock, even where it isn't, and in situations where going to Defcon 1 isn't warranted.  Chavez, IMO, is one of them.  He's much more interested in generating external threats to shore up his domestic and regional power.  

Should we ignore him?  By no means.  But thinking of him fundamentally as an Evildoer is gonna get us into deep **** AGAIN -- just like in Iraq - and we simply can't allow that to happen.  

[Hawkins]

I checked the numbers on the CIA World Factbook online, and Columbia spends twice as much per year on their military as Venezuela.

I don't think it would be wise for Chavez to pick a fight with them, even if we weren't backing Columbia... which Bush has already said we are.

Chavez may want to read up on the Falklands war, because he's going to become very unpopular with his own citizens if he starts something that his military can't finish.

Thats what happened to Argentina's leadership following that debacle. And thats what this troop build up along the border reminds me of.