Murder Rate Down by 50% Since HB1804

[Wrinkle]

While I can agree temp and light probably do impact crime rates, we're speaking of murder here. Not even 'violent' crime as a whole, just murder.

And, rates indicated by the study show violent crime does seem to coincide with seasonal variations in temp. Not sure the same can be said for murder by itself.

Still, the quarter ending March 30, 2008 is only being compared to the same quarter of last year, where light and weather were similar. Even considering the new date for Daylight Savings Time, that would tend to promote an increase, not a decrease.

Gasoline prices are short of $1.00/gal different than a year ago.

Don't have any idea what gasoline prices effect on murder rates might be. It would seem to have to correlate with poverty conditions, or the economy in general more than just gas prices.

Only heard of one case in recent memory where guns were even involved with gasoline. That was someone getting their 5Gal can stolen at a gas station where shots were fired. No one killed. And, iirc, that was during the ice storm recovery when cans and gas (electricity) were in somewhat short supply.

Most power was restored prior to Xmas, so wouldn't tend to affect the 1st Quarter of the new year.

Anyway, the only major change from last year is HB1804.

As for the 2003-2004 numbers. It is 2004 which was the abberation, not 2003, which had about the same average number of murders as since, until now. Even then, 49 in 2004 represents almost one per week (52) and we are currently at half of even that rate.

Tulsa had 58 murders last year, and over 60 for each of the two years prior.

[tim huntzinger]

quote:Originally posted by YoungTulsan


One more thing, I just saw a flood of police cars shooting down I-44, and I hear ambulances.  Sounds like something just happened nearby!

Day-old Krispy Kremes on sale?

[CoffeeBean]

I fail to see any significance whatsoever.  Unless you look at who is killing who, the entire discussion is pointless.  

For example - the rate of illegal immigrants being murdered may be exactly the same as before while the number of legal citizen murders are down, or vice versa.  

You can draw nothing from this stat other than "murders are down."

[custosnox]

The points of light, moon phase, weather, etc. were to illustrate that any number of things can effect crime rate, including homicides.  Just because HB1804 was a major event that took place since the decrease, it does not mean it is a deciding factor.  If you follow the chaos theory, then you know that even a small event can have dramatic results.