The Civil War and November elections

[RecycleMichael]

I know it is just me, but look at a map of the states that were part of the confederacy and the states that were part of the Union. These are the states that are east of Oklahoma (where almost the entire Civil War was fought).

Then look at the same states that are polling in an Obama versus McCain matchup in November.

Confederate states
Virginia (and West Virginia before it split)
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Texas
Louisiana

States where McCain is ahead...
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Texas
Louisiana
and Kentucky

States of the Union
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Wisconsin
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Kentucky
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New York
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
Massachussetts
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Rhode Island
and Kentucky

States where Obama is ahead
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Wisconsin
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Kentucky
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New York
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
Massachussetts
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Rhode Island

Kentucky is the only state that has changed from one list to the other side.

Why?

Has America been split politically for 140 years and we just never paid attention?

I am just amazed by this comparison.

[Conan71]

Those southern states carried Democrats pretty much up to 1980, then they flipped to the GOP and Reagan.

[RecycleMichael]

Five of those voted for George Wallace in 1968. Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia went for him.

I think that is when everything changed.

[we vs us]

See also, Nixon's Southern Strategy:

quote: Nixon:"From now on, the Republicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 percent of the Negro vote and they don't need any more than that... but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats."

I happen to think the South never really came to terms with how it had so deeply institutionalized slavery, but it took LBJ to pass the Civil Rights Act, the assassinations and the riots of the 60's-70's, and Nixon to recognize that the two could so strongly upset the Democratic apple cart. It sounds both cynical and impossible, but the Republican Party's relied on the Southern Strategy since Nixon ran things in 72.

[okiebybirth]

Living in Northern Virginia, I think Obama has a good shot at taking this state.  He'll win overwhelmingly in this part of the state that's in the DC metro area and contains 32% of the population of the state as of 2006.  

[pmcalk]

I agree that Obama has a good shot at Virginia.  The suburbs of DC are almost as liberal as DC itself, and have grown larger and larger in Virginia--really, all the way down to Fredricksburg is now considered a DC suburb.

RM, I am curious why you listed Kentucky so many times.  Once as a confederate state, and twice as a union state.  And apparently both Obama and McCain are ahead in that state.  Was there a point to that, or do you just really like Kentucky?

[RecycleMichael]

It was just a mistake by me. It was probably just my love for kentucky bourbon.

The last polling I saw for Kentucky was May 18th and had McCain at 56% and Obama at 32%.

Thanks for catching it.

I agree about Virginia. McCain has lost ten points there in two months.

[pmcalk]

Seriously, I thought perhaps you were addressing the complexities of defining which side Kentucky fought on during the Civil War.  Even though listed with the Union, Kentucky always had deep sympathies with the South, and actually is represented by a star on the Confederate flag.  And they maintained slaves until after the Civil War.  My point, even though a Union state, Kentucky is more southern than anything.  So I am not surprised McCain is ahead there.