Batten em down!

[Red Arrow]

Everyone has a good day once in a while.  (winky smiley face)

Yep, you were lucky today.   

[Red Arrow]

I saw Hoss's post about the cities affected.

Red, we dodged a bullet. Bixby is not mentioned.

We're a secret city.  They don't know about us.  Snow N, S, E, and W.... we will get some snow.   

[nathanm]

Looks like 3-4" max unless HPC got the liquid amounts off or the cold air comes in much more quickly than expected.

[Hoss]

Looks like 3-4" max unless HPC got the liquid amounts off or the cold air comes in much more quickly than expected.

Too early to tell.  I just don't think 48 hours out you can reliably know when it comes to the frozen precip.  Remember how all over the place the Snowpocalypse was initially with the forecasting?

[nathanm]

Too early to tell.  I just don't think 48 hours out you can reliably know when it comes to the frozen precip.  Remember how all over the place the Snowpocalypse was initially with the forecasting?

Forecasting the amount of liquid that will fall from the sky is much easier than forecasting how much of it will be snow/sleet/whatever. Given that the 5 day total QPF is around an inch and half of that should fall before the cold air gets here, that limits the snow to 6" at most. Throw in a bit of sleet/freezing rain and you get my 4" snow estimate. Unless the moisture stays over a day behind schedule or the cold air comes in over a day early, a big snow event just isn't in the cards. Now, if somehow the cold air got here through the whole column before the precip really starts, we could have 12-15" of snow.

With Snowpocalypse, we knew we were going to get frozen precipitation, but it was near enough to freezing that it wasn't possible to tell whether or not it would be frozen all the way down, so snow totals were indeed all over the place. This time, it's not going to even be close to freezing until at least half the precip has already fallen.

Edited to add: To be clear, this is all predicated on the models not changing wildly once the system is better sampled as we get closer to the event. It's hard to be sure when the waves supposedly bringing the precipitation are either still out over the Pacific or not even formed yet.