Florida primary

[RecycleMichael]

This one is shaping up to be key for both parties.

I show the republicans to be in a three way tie, but nine days is a lifetime at this part of the campaign.

The three front-runners here, McCain, Romney and Giuliani are all tied at 20% with Huckabee rising with numbers in the high teens.

I think Clinton will win Florida with around a ten point win over Obama and Edwards gettin somewhere in the low teens.

[pmcalk]

For the democrats, you once again have a big state whose delegates won't count (unless the courts say otherwise), so I wouldn't call it key.  The outcome won't have much meaning since none of the Democrats are actually campaigning there.  Still, the Jewish vote will be interesting to watch--quite a bit of hateful emails aimed at Obama have been circulating--so much so that several prominent Jewish leaders felt compelled to respond:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/16/us/politics/16letter.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=politics&adxnnlx=1200578597-/yK3Hhi0IMzjLJczzfeyww&oref=slogin

[Conan71]

Well, since the primary season already is shaping up like the BCS football series, I think Rudy just might win Florida.

[inteller]

hahaha, yeah, getting a Jew to vote for someone named Hussein.  Might as well sell them a Cuban pork sandwich.

[RecycleMichael]

I think McCain will win Florida, mostly because there are so many seniors living there. McCain, if elected, will be the oldest President ever. I am guessing he gets around 33%, with Romney second with 30%. I predict Giuliani gets 18%, Huckabee 12% and Paul getting 7%.

If security is the issue, McCain is your republican candidate. The worse the economy gets the more it becomes the top issue for voters and that helps Romney.

How Giuliani stays in after spending everything he has in Florida and still finishing third is beyond me. Rudy thought he was getting the endorsement of the Florida governor, but it went to McCain.

Ron Paul won't drop out because he is doing it without money and Huckabee is just trying to ensure that he is the vice-presidential candidate as a measure to keep the evangelicals as part of the republican machine.

The democrats have told the candidates to stay out of Florida because the state party wouldn't play along with the primary calendar. Hillary won't be pushed around and needs a southern win to counteract the South Carolina win by chief rival Obama.  

Remember, Florida is where elections go funny. There are incredible amounts of absentee ballots and people who have two homes. Florida is the place where hanging chads and butterfly ballots get double-counted or destroyed equally.

"Florida elections, we count more."

[akupetsky]

I have relatives in Florida.  It is a very strange state.  Kind of like New York in that each minority is represented, but unlike New York, no one really gets along.  They all live in their gated communities and complain about the other groups.  Too me, it represents everything that is currently wrong with the US.

I am sorry that Florida choose to violate the democratic party rules.  If democratic candidates were able to campaign there, they could show that even in Florida there are basic core values upon which we can all agree.  The republicans will simply pander to the religious right.

I am glad that Edwards and Obama have stuck to their promise of not campaigning there.  I find it disingenuous that Clinton has been making off-handed comments about how "important" a Florida win would be.

[RecycleMichael]

I was talking to my sister in Orlando tonight and she was talking about the republican ads running in Florida. She is a conservative (there's one in every family, but we love her anyway).

She thinks that Huckabee is going to be the surprise in Florida, beating Giuliani for third and getting close to the two front-runners. She said that all the churches in her circle of friends were pushing Huckabee and he was going to get a big turnout of new voters.

She also says that Romney has been flooding her television with ads and she thinks he will beat McCain based solely on his TV campaign.

We will know for sure on Tuesday night.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by inteller

hahaha, yeah, getting a Jew to vote for someone named Hussein.  Might as well sell them a Cuban pork sandwich.

That's not so funny. But I think you'd be surprised to find %70 of American Jews are against the war. And there will be a definative gender split in voting in Floreeduh. Let's not forget the year 2000 in Florida got us to this great moment in history!

[YoungTulsan]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I think McCain will win Florida, mostly because there are so many seniors living there. McCain, if elected, will be the oldest President ever. I am guessing he gets around 33%, with Romney second with 30%. I predict Giuliani gets 18%, Huckabee 12% and Paul getting 7%.

If security is the issue, McCain is your republican candidate. The worse the economy gets the more it becomes the top issue for voters and that helps Romney.

How Giuliani stays in after spending everything he has in Florida and still finishing third is beyond me. Rudy thought he was getting the endorsement of the Florida governor, but it went to McCain.

Ron Paul won't drop out because he is doing it without money and Huckabee is just trying to ensure that he is the vice-presidential candidate as a measure to keep the evangelicals as part of the republican machine.

The democrats have told the candidates to stay out of Florida because the state party wouldn't play along with the primary calendar. Hillary won't be pushed around and needs a southern win to counteract the South Carolina win by chief rival Obama.  

Remember, Florida is where elections go funny. There are incredible amounts of absentee ballots and people who have two homes. Florida is the place where hanging chads and butterfly ballots get double-counted or destroyed equally.

"Florida elections, we count more."

The funny business has me worried the most with Giuliani.  Think about the strings that were pulled to move forward the Florida primary.  They even ignored the fact that the Democrats STRIPPED Florida of its delegates.  You would think something like their votes basically not COUNTING would be reason enough not to move the primary, but that didn't deter them.  So then you have Giuliani basically wagering his entire campaign strategy on one state.  He really must think he has this one squared away, despite what those crazy "polls" say, and despite the fact that he has been way behind even Ron Paul in the primarys/caucuses held thus far.

The legit race seems to be between Romney and McCain.  Giuliani seems to think he has a trick up his sleeve.  Huckabee ran out of money so he is giving up on Florida.  Paul isn't wasting money there since it is winner takes all, so it makes no difference if he gets 2% or 12%.

Prediction:  Romney 34% McCain 25% Giuliani 18% Huckabee 13% Paul 10%

Cubans will bump Paul out of the low single digits.

And now apparently Hillary is campaigning in Florida after everyone agreed not to.  I'm not sure if it moreso makes her look like a cheat, or makes her opponents look like a bunch of chumps.  Is Florida going to be like Michigan where Obama and Edwards are not on the ballot (thus giving "uncommitted" a chance at 1st place) or will they BE on the ballot, just not actively campaigning for support?

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I think McCain will win Florida, mostly because there are so many seniors living there. McCain, if elected, will be the oldest President ever. I am guessing he gets around 33%, with Romney second with 30%. I predict Giuliani gets 18%, Huckabee 12% and Paul getting 7%.

If security is the issue, McCain is your republican candidate. The worse the economy gets the more it becomes the top issue for voters and that helps Romney.

How Giuliani stays in after spending everything he has in Florida and still finishing third is beyond me. Rudy thought he was getting the endorsement of the Florida governor, but it went to McCain.

Ron Paul won't drop out because he is doing it without money and Huckabee is just trying to ensure that he is the vice-presidential candidate as a measure to keep the evangelicals as part of the republican machine.

The democrats have told the candidates to stay out of Florida because the state party wouldn't play along with the primary calendar. Hillary won't be pushed around and needs a southern win to counteract the South Carolina win by chief rival Obama.  

Remember, Florida is where elections go funny. There are incredible amounts of absentee ballots and people who have two homes. Florida is the place where hanging chads and butterfly ballots get double-counted or destroyed equally.

"Florida elections, we count more."

RM with all due respect, you keep pushing this McCain thing in every state, and continue to be wrong.  He has no chance in Florida either.  He is not viewed by Republicans or Conservatives as an option.  Most of the wise (that really includes Fl elderly!) love John for his service and dedication, but fear his ability to go against his party and it's principals for personal political gain.  This makes him unelectable.

Romney will sweep this state too.

[RecycleMichael]

With all due respect, I have been right in every state so far.

I am not pushing McCain. I am predicting election results.

If you think McCain is unelectable, take a closer look at your boy Romney. He dodged the draft working as a mormon missionary in France. He has changed his positions on many issues, from abortion to gun control based on when and where he was campaigning, and he attacked illegal immigration policies while employing  undocumented workers to work on his home.

Read this website...
http://romneyfacts.com/

It details bizarre behavior...like strapping the family pet carrier on the roof of his car to transport his dog on a family vacation...

[cannon_fodder]

McCain is doing very well actually.  The newest polls predict he wins Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/florida-primary.html

He also won New Hampshire.

And for that matter is leading in the national polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national-primary.html

quote:He has no chance in Florida either. He is not viewed by Republicans or Conservatives as an option.

So I'd have to say the above statement is of Spoonbill.  I have serious doubts about McCain (not the least of which the fact that he has spent his entire life working for the government)... but to deny that he certainly has a chance seems a bit off base.

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by spoonbill

RM with all due respect, you keep pushing this McCain thing in every state, and continue to be wrong.  He has no chance in Florida either.  He is not viewed by Republicans or Conservatives as an option.  Most of the wise (that really includes Fl elderly!) love John for his service and dedication, but fear his ability to go against his party and it's principals for personal political gain.  This makes him unelectable.

Romney will sweep this state too.

Sorry, goonbill.

I was within a couple of points of each candidate. Rudy and Ron Paul each lost a couple of points to the other three.

McCain is now the front runner with momentum for Super Tuesday..

It will kill the right-wing talk show hosts to have McCain as the republican nominee. That alone is good reason to support him.

[FOTD]

Hope you're right. But he's outa money.....