IS HILLARY PREPARING TO RUN IN 2012?

[Gaspar]

Great post today from Dick Morris!

IS HILLARY PREPARING TO RUN IN 2012?

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on FOXNews.com on April 25, 2008.

Does Hillary Clinton really believe she can overtake Barack Obama among elected delegates? No way. The math is dead against her and she's a realist. Even after Pennsylvania, Obama still leads by more than 140 in elected delegates. They'll likely break even in Indiana and he'll win North Carolina where one third of the vote is African-American. After that? If she wins Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico by 15 points and they break about even in Guam, North Dakota, Montana, and Oregon, she'll still trail him by at least 130 votes among elected delegates.

Does she believe she can persuade super delegates to vote for her? Again, probably not. Obama has steadily eroded her edge among super delegates and now they are almost tied among committed super delegates. And the prevailing sentiment among those that remain is not to overturn the will of the voters.

So why is Hillary still running so hard? Why is she especially focused on pushing up Obama's negatives?

Until the last vote is counted on June 3rd, we can chalk up her persistence to determination, courage and sheer obstinacy. But if she persists in her candidacy after the last primary, we must begin to consider whether she has an ulterior motive.

Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can't win the general election in November, assuring McCain of the presidency so that she can have a clear field to run again in 2012? Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run. But if McCain wins, she would have to be considered the presumptive front runner for the nomination, a status which she might parlay into a nomination more successfully than she has been able to do this year.

Every day that she stays in the race and punches Barack Obama, she must realize that she is decreasing his chances of getting elected in November. Each time that she waves the bloody shirt and says that only she is strong enough to fight the war on terror, she obviously raises doubts about Obama's strength and leadership. Every time she criticizes him for not switching pastors or for saying downscale white voters are bitter, she raises issues that are very destructive to Obama should he win the nomination.

When does fighting for the nomination in 2008 end and seeking to sabotoge Obama's chances in November to keep her options alive for 2012 begin? Doubts about Hillary's motivation are going to keep on growing with each inconclusive primary. After she loses North Carolina and fails to carry Indiana by any significant margin (North Carolina has twice as many delegates as Indiana), people will begin to wonder out loud about why she is staying in the race. And if she remains obdurate after the last votes are cast on June 3rd, it will become an increasingly accepted presumption that she is running a campaign of sabotage against Obama.

There is a way to run without waging a scorched earth campaign. Mike Huckabee continued to fight for the Republican nomination until McCain reached the magic number to clench the battle and did not attack McCain. He waged a positive campaign and exercised his right to stay in the contest as long as it was undecided without hurting the party's chances in November. Obviously, Huckabee could have attacked McCain and drawn more votes for his candidacy, but, in the interests of party victory, he chose not to do so.

Why isn't Hillary making the same choice?

In 2004, it is pretty obvious that Hillary did nothing to help John Kerry beyond giving a speech at the convention and waging a token campaign on his behalf. Bill did even less. Their goal was obvious: they wanted Kerry to lose to Bush so that Hillary could run in 2008. Is she playing the same game now? Only time will tell.

[RecycleMichael]

Poppycock.

She is running to win in 2008. Obama doesn't have the magic number of delegates yet, so a comparison to Huckabee and McCain is wrong.

Why would you trust anything that FOX News says, especially about Hillary? Look at their language to describe her..."punches Obama"..."waves a bloody shirt"..."campaign of sabotage".

Give me a break.

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

Poppycock.

She is running to win in 2008. Obama doesn't have the magic number of delegates yet, so a comparison to Huckabee and McCain is wrong.

Why would you trust anything that FOX News says, especially about Hillary? Look at their language to describe her..."punches Obama"..."waves a bloody shirt"..."campaign of sabotage".

Give me a break.

Dick's made a career of being politically edgy but he is infrequently wrong.  He was Bill's most trusted advisor.  Got him re-elected in 96, and they had the same taste in bimbos, except Dick paid for his.

Just because it came from FOX has little bearing on the analysis.  I too think she genuinely wants to win, but I also think that if she feels she can't win, she will make sure her opponent is utterly destroyed.  

Do you believe that if Obama gains the nomination she will rally behind him.  Wanna put a dollar on that?

[]

[RecycleMichael]

Yes. I believe whomever is not chosen by the democrats will rally behind the winner.

The democrats will be united by the end of summer. The differences between Hillary and Obama are slight. The differences between the two of them and McCain are many.

Most Americans don't even follow the campaigns until after Labor day.

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

Yes. I believe whomever is not chosen by the democrats will rally behind the winner.

The democrats will be united by the end of summer. The differences between Hillary and Obama are slight. The differences between the two of them and McCain are many.

Most Americans don't even follow the campaigns until after Labor day.

Ok, If you come out to the Bixby thing, I'll need to verify that you have the dollar! []

[FOTD]

Old news from an old hack

[Hometown]

My sense is no, Clinton is not laying groundwork for another run.

If Clinton is defeated the party will have to reinvent itself.  The hold the Clintons have had on the party since Bill's first nomination will be at an end.  

If Obama is the nominee he will be charged with reinventing the party.  If he is the nominee and loses in November the party will have to reinvent itself once again and there will be a substantial power vacuum.

My guess is that a lot of what we see going on today is that the party is revolting against the hard ball tactics of the Clintons.  The problem is that the Clintons are "winning" as we know it, and the definers of what it means to be a Democrat in a Republican era.  If Clinton wins it will extend their centrist philosophy for another four to ten years and codify their hold on the party once again, and I would imagine there would be some serious payback.  Good thing Bill Richardson enjoys hanging out on his ranch.

[we vs us]

Gaspar, thanks for posting.  Needed a laugh this morning!

[bokworker]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

Yes. I believe whomever is not chosen by the democrats will rally behind the winner.

The democrats will be united by the end of summer. The differences between Hillary and Obama are slight. The differences between the two of them and McCain are many.

Most Americans don't even follow the campaigns until after Labor day.

A strory taking the other side...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/campaign_divided_democrats

[cannon_fodder]

It does not really look like she is setting herself up for a 2012 run:

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/columnists/louis/index.html

Apparently the person who funded and set up the Press Club talk by Rev. Wright is a Hillary fund raiser.  I doubt her own supporters would not know what her plans were and would take such drastic steps to harm Obama if they thought he was going to be the nominee.

[Gaspar]

I think she's playing puppet-master, and it could either really help her or really hurt her.  Her supporters like her ability to manipulate others (wether by proxy or not) however,  this is the same trait that has driven so many away from her.  

If Obama uses this opportunity to absolutely denounce Wright and he brings up the device nature of the clinton campaigns manipulation of this poor idiot then I think she will be in trouble again.

If Obama remains soft on his relationship with Wright (as I suspect he actually feels) then this may serve to doom him and deliver the White House to McCain.  I think she has succeeded in making Obama too weak to be electable, and I doubt that she can become nominated without turning superdelagates and fracturing her party, so It seems that she is scorching the Earth and praying for a miracle.

Once again the only person that's winning is McCain.

[Hometown]

"Obama too weak to be electable"

She made him too weak?  Is Obama responsible for anything?  Is he accountable for anything?  Earth to Obama Central.