Hillary has lost on every angle

[pmcalk]

Just to make RM mad....

Tuesday night put Obama over the top in terms of pledged delegates.  He's ahead now in superdelegates.  As Hillary has said, the superdelegates are elected officials that know what it takes to win an election.  Yet, the majority of those elected officials have endorsed Obama.  In fact, the only group of superdelegates in which Hillary has more endorsements is the "distinguished party leaders".  Who the heck are they?  How did they get to be "distinguished"?  Who voted for them?  

Obama still has more states, and more money, while Hillary continues to fall deeper in debt.  Nationally, he does better against McCain than Hillary.  State by state analysis shows that Obama still beats McCain in Pennsylvania, is competitive in Ohio, and does better in Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Oregon.

Overall, Hillary's argument that she is a stronger candidate makes no sense.  So on what basis should the superdelegates take the election away from Obama and give it to Hillary?  (other than bad math).

[RecycleMichael]

I think you might be overstating Obama's ability to walk on water, heal the sick and make perfect apple pie.

More Americans have voted for Hillary than Obama,overall. If the states were counted as winner take all (like the general election will be) Hillary would be ahead in the delegate race.

The last two elections have come down to voters in Florida and Ohio. At the last poll Hillary wins Florida 49% to 41% while McCain beats Obama 44% to 43%. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain 50% to 43% while Obama loses 45% to 44%.

These are the reasons why Hillary is the stronger candidate against McCain.

Yes, Obama has done a better job than Hillary this primary season, but he has failed to close the deal. He gets weaker and weaker against her everyday, losing popular votes and elected delegates every Tuesday. He does beat McCain in many key states and is closer in some of the red states, but states don't usually just change in the electoral college overnight. Only two states changed in the Al Gore vs. John Kerry comparison. Getting close ain't enough. The states that matter the most, in the ones that if you win, you win it all, Hillary is stronger.

[pmcalk]

I have no delusions about my candidate.  I know that my candidate is going to have a hard time capturing those "hard working white people," not in Iowa, Oregan, Wisconsin, Colorado or numerous other states, but in those appalachian states.

Maybe next time we should just skip the rest of the country, and ask Ohio and Florida whom they want as president?

What has happened in the past is not necessarily what will happen in the fall.  Different states may be in play.  And even if Ohio and Florida are the critical states to win, how can you invalidate the will of the democratic members based upon a poll (those have been so accurate this year) six months before the actual election?  

If we were going to base choices on polls taken 6 months before the election, Hillary would be our democratic candidate now.

[pmcalk]

I love how you say "more Americans have voted for Hillary." [I assume you mean democrats, because, quite frankly most Americans don't even vote].  It ignores the caucus states, and lets you count Michigan, even though Obama wasn't on the ballot.  Reminds me of Bill Clinton's "I never broke any laws" when asked about marijuana.  Not a lie per se, just not the full truth.

How about this--overall, many, many more people who have participated in the democratic selection process have said they want someone other than Hillary to be the president.

[RecycleMichael]

How about we be completely truthful and say "more people have voted for Hillary in this presidential primary season than have voted for any other candidate in the history of our country."

Since we are talking about the votes...Obama won in Chicago/Cook County by over 500,000 votes. Yes, the same Chicago that is known for such squeaky clean politics.

I am fine with Obama being President of Chicago. That is where his mob friends are.

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael



The last two elections have come down to voters in Florida and Ohio. At the last poll Hillary wins Florida 49% to 41% while McCain beats Obama 44% to 43%. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain 50% to 43% while Obama loses 45% to 44%.

[/b]

In trying to prove a case that Hillary has the momentum and Obama is fading you play loose and fast with the figures. What polls? What dates? And more importantly, how are they trending? What is their margin of error? Your McCain/Obama matchups being within a single percentage point don't show any preference at all. Basically, voters in those two states haven't made up their mind about the candidates as Hillary refusing to fold and continuuing to attack is creating doubt.

He could be building momentum but for her efforts to become another Ralph Nader. That will be her status in the party. She out Nadered Ralph.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I think you might be overstating Obama's ability to walk on water, heal the sick and make perfect apple pie.

More Americans have voted for Hillary than Obama,overall. If the states were counted as winner take all (like the general election will be) Hillary would be ahead in the delegate race.

The last two elections have come down to voters in Florida and Ohio. At the last poll Hillary wins Florida 49% to 41% while McCain beats Obama 44% to 43%. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain 50% to 43% while Obama loses 45% to 44%.

These are the reasons why Hillary is the stronger candidate against McCain.

Yes, Obama has done a better job than Hillary this primary season, but he has failed to close the deal. He gets weaker and weaker against her everyday, losing popular votes and elected delegates every Tuesday. He does beat McCain in many key states and is closer in some of the red states, but states don't usually just change in the electoral college overnight. Only two states changed in the Al Gore vs. John Kerry comparison. Getting close ain't enough. The states that matter the most, in the ones that if you win, you win it all, Hillary is stronger.

RM....you are NOT the Devil's advocate. But you are a wolf in sheeps clothing.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/oregon_exit_polls_obama_handil.php

Oregon Exit Polls: Obama Handily Beat Hillary Among Whites, No-College, Less-Than-$50,000 Voters
By Greg Sargent - May 21, 2008, 9:21AM
The Oregon exit polls lend a bit more weight to the theory that Barack Obama's real problem is more with Appalachia than it is with working class whites in general, as the Hillary campaign has repeatedly suggested.

In Kentucky yesterday, Hillary slaughtered Obama among these voters. But the Oregon exits show a different story.

Obama beat Hillary by sizable margins among all ages of white voters except those 60 and older. And he beat Hillary among voters with no college degree, too -- and since the state is overwhelmingly white, these voters are the ones he's supposed to have trouble with.

Late Update: The exits also show that Obama also beat Hillary by seven points among voters making less than $50,000 (though she won among voters making between $15,000 and $30,000).

What's more, Obama also won among voters from a household with a union member. I've edited the above to make that point.

Clinton Needs 181% of Remaining Delegates
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/33560

The Devil predicts Obama wins by %20 over McCaint. The repugs are getting what comes around.....

[RecycleMichael]

New polling out today.

Hillary wins over McCain in Missouri 48% to 46%. Obama loses Missouri to McCain 48% to 45%.

Hillary wins North Carolina 49% to 43% while Obama loses 51% to 43%.

Obama does better than McCain in Colorado, 48% to 42% and Hillary loses to McCain 47% to 44%.

The democrats lost all three of these four years ago with John Kerry and North Carolina was republican by a 13% margin.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

New polling out today.

Hillary wins over McCain in Missouri 48% to 46%. Obama loses Missouri to McCain 48% to 45%.

Hillary wins North Carolina 49% to 43% while Obama loses 51% to 43%.

Obama does better than McCain in Colorado, 48% to 42% and Hillary loses to McCain 47% to 44%.

The democrats lost all three of these four years ago with John Kerry and North Carolina was republican by a 13% margin.

Wanna bet?

What's your source?

[FOTD]

Doh!
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/print.html

How will Barack Obama get to 270?
This November, a Democratic victory will probably hinge on the Electoral College votes of a handful of swing states. Howard Dean's pollster examines 17 fall battlegrounds, one by one.
By Paul Maslin

Mod's note: Your post on this thread has been edited for sake of brevity.  Let this serve as an example to others who are tempted to post entire articles in a thread when a link is sufficient.

This is annoying to other forum members and adds little to the discussion.  If you wish to place a link and add your own comments that is fine.  If you wish to keep cutting and pasting 10,000 word articles which are the published work of someone else, it will be summarily edited and/or deleted from now on.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

more people have voted for Hillary in this presidential primary season than have voted for any other candidate in the history of our country except Obama, unless we only count votes that help Hillary

Fixed it for ya'.  

She can't win by the rules she set up, so now she has to try to change the rules.  You can't win the popular vote if you attempt to be fair (even if you want to count FL and Michigan, you have to ignore potential votes for Obama and discount the caucuses).   It is simply not a sound argument.

The Bills were Super Bowl Champions in 1991!*




* if the goal post was move 2 yards to the right and/or an almost made field goal counted as 2 points or several other rules changes were implemented so the score math favored the Bills.

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

New polling out today.

Hillary wins over McCain in Missouri 48% to 46%. Obama loses Missouri to McCain 48% to 45%.

Hillary wins North Carolina 49% to 43% while Obama loses 51% to 43%.

Obama does better than McCain in Colorado, 48% to 42% and Hillary loses to McCain 47% to 44%.

The democrats lost all three of these four years ago with John Kerry and North Carolina was republican by a 13% margin.

Source??  I can cite polls, too:

From Battleground:  
Clinton v. McCain--McCain wins by 8%
Obama v. McCain--Obama wins by 2%

TIPP:
Clinton v. McCain--Clinton by 5%
Obama v. McCain--Obama by 11%

State by state analysis shows both winning Pennsylvania, and Obama remaining competitive in Ohio & Florida.  All of the polls show winning & losing within the percentage of undecided, so I don't think they have much relevance.


I thought Hillary's argument was that, since she won certain swing states in the primary, she will win them in the fall.  Obama won NC & Missouri.  Just goes to show you, which candidate wins at the primary level has nothing to do with who will win six months from now.  The way to become the democratic candidate is not based upon inaccurate polls of what might happen in the fall.  It's based upon who gets 2025 delegates, and Obama only needs 60 more, while Hillary needs 250.

[Chicken Little]

Forget the swing states PMCALK, how about "reliably red" Virginia?

McCain (R) 42 (52)
Obama (D) 49 (44)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

New polling out today.

Hillary wins over McCain in Missouri 48% to 46%. Obama loses Missouri to McCain 48% to 45%.

Hillary wins North Carolina 49% to 43% while Obama loses 51% to 43%.

Obama does better than McCain in Colorado, 48% to 42% and Hillary loses to McCain 47% to 44%.

The democrats lost all three of these four years ago with John Kerry and North Carolina was republican by a 13% margin.

Wanna bet?

What's your source?

Survey USA.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=56a201bd-db14-4567-bba2-dffea45ee60e

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

How about we be completely truthful and say "more people have voted for Hillary in this presidential primary season than have voted for any other candidate in the history of our country."

Since we are talking about the votes...Obama won in Chicago/Cook County by over 500,000 votes. Yes, the same Chicago that is known for such squeaky clean politics.

I am fine with Obama being President of Chicago. That is where his mob friends are.

Wow.  Now you're just being an idiot.
I assume once Obama wins, you'll be voting for McCain in the fall...

unless you're a hypocrit.