predictions about the debate

[pmcalk]

Any thoughts before?  

There's been a lot of focus these last few days on McCain.  He has a lot to prove today.  The narrative that is evolving is that McCain is reckless/irrational.  If he does anything to confirm that in the debate, he loses.

Most debates are remembered by whatever gets a laugh.  McCain doesn't have a very good record with jokes--he should avoid them.

A lot is expected of Obama, but he isn't the best debator.  Actually, I take that back--he isn't the most effective debator.  He debates like he is in lawschool, where the point is to have the best argument.  In politics, the best argument doesn't always win; the most likable guy does.  The majority of Americans believe he will win the debate, so if he does, he only meets expectations.  

It will be interesting to watch.

[FOTD]

John McCrazy already won the debate according to his ad cam pain.

[Friendly Bear]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

Any thoughts before?  

There's been a lot of focus these last few days on McCain.  He has a lot to prove today.  The narrative that is evolving is that McCain is reckless/irrational.  If he does anything to confirm that in the debate, he loses.

Most debates are remembered by whatever gets a laugh.  McCain doesn't have a very good record with jokes--he should avoid them.

A lot is expected of Obama, but he isn't the best debator.  Actually, I take that back--he isn't the most effective debator.  He debates like he is in lawschool, where the point is to have the best argument.  In politics, the best argument doesn't always win; the most likable guy does.  The majority of Americans believe he will win the debate, so if he does, he only meets expectations.  

It will be interesting to watch.

Barack has a considerable advantage, since PBS provided his campaign with the Debate Questions in advance of tonite......

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

Any thoughts before?  

There's been a lot of focus these last few days on McCain.  He has a lot to prove today.  The narrative that is evolving is that McCain is reckless/irrational.  If he does anything to confirm that in the debate, he loses.

Most debates are remembered by whatever gets a laugh.  McCain doesn't have a very good record with jokes--he should avoid them.

A lot is expected of Obama, but he isn't the best debator.  Actually, I take that back--he isn't the most effective debator.  He debates like he is in lawschool, where the point is to have the best argument.  In politics, the best argument doesn't always win; the most likable guy does.  The majority of Americans believe he will win the debate, so if he does, he only meets expectations.  

It will be interesting to watch.

Obama has to overcome the empty suit image.

It might go desperately bad for McCain if he walks over and clocks Obama at some point. []

What's your poll showing Obama favored going in?  Curious by how much.  It's interesting, I really don't think there are any surprises.  I think people have their minds made up and the Ind's know who they are voting for already.

Big question is, how many rural white Dems have been polled on Obama?  I keep saying it, but he might need as much as 10 points to outrun the Bradley Effect.

[we vs us]

I'm already having a hard time watching them go back and forth.  McCain negotiated hard for this weirdo format of talking directly to each other but all it's doing is enraging him.  

Also, I caught him pulling a definite Gore up there.  Rolling his eyes, chucklng, shaking his head.  

Obama is pretty much repeating his stump speech, far as I can tell.

[RecycleMichael]

I will take Obama in a TKO in the eighth round.

It is a good debate so far. McCain has lost some energy, but Obama has lost some focus.

Who is better on foreign policy is lost on most Americans. They just want to know that their guy has a plan.

McCain is very good at pronouncing foreign names. Obama has way better hand signs and body language. Obama has better answers, but McCain has better stories.

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

Any thoughts before?  

There's been a lot of focus these last few days on McCain.  He has a lot to prove today.  The narrative that is evolving is that McCain is reckless/irrational.  If he does anything to confirm that in the debate, he loses.

Most debates are remembered by whatever gets a laugh.  McCain doesn't have a very good record with jokes--he should avoid them.

A lot is expected of Obama, but he isn't the best debator.  Actually, I take that back--he isn't the most effective debator.  He debates like he is in lawschool, where the point is to have the best argument.  In politics, the best argument doesn't always win; the most likable guy does.  The majority of Americans believe he will win the debate, so if he does, he only meets expectations.  

It will be interesting to watch.

Obama has to overcome the empty suit image.

It might go desperately bad for McCain if he walks over and clocks Obama at some point. []

What's your poll showing Obama favored going in?  Curious by how much.  It's interesting, I really don't think there are any surprises.  I think people have their minds made up and the Ind's know who they are voting for already.

Big question is, how many rural white Dems have been polled on Obama?  I keep saying it, but he might need as much as 10 points to outrun the Bradley Effect.

I believe the poll was on CNN--said public believed Obama would win debate by a 2 to 1 margin.  I'll try to look it up.

As for the Bradley effect, I saw a interesting opinion that talked about Obama underperfoming and overperforming depending on the state.  During the primaries, Obama consistently beat the polls in states that either had a highly educated population or states with a large African American population.  On the other hand, in areas like Pennsylvania & Ohio, he underperformed (probably due to some of the rural/blue collar vote).  Based upon that analysis, there could be an assumption that Obama will do better than expected in states like Virginia, NC, and Wisconsin.  On the other hand, he probably needs a significant lead in areas like Pennsylvania (or an incredibly high turnout in Philly).

[pmcalk]

My initial assessment:  Tie.

I didn't think McCain did particularly well, but much of that is probably because I don't like his debating style.  He seems condescending to me.  All in all, no major gaffs by either.  Obama held his own in the area that is suppose to be McCain's expertise.  McCain demonstrated he knew a lot of facts regarding foreign countries, but didn't necessarily have better judgement.

Personally, I hate all of the personal anecdotes.  All the stories about whose wrist band they were wearing just seems to be political gimicks to me.

I don't think it will be any game changer.

[RecycleMichael]

Why wasn't McCain wearing a flag lapel pin?

He must hate America.

[Wrinkle]

Obama only called John "Jim" once, McCain never called Obama "Osama".

[pmcalk]

There was just a flash poll up on CNN that said those surveyed found that Obama won the debate by a substantial margin.  Interesting.

Maybe because McCain forgot to wear his flag pin?

[Wrinkle]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

There was just a flash poll up on CNN that said those surveyed found that Obama won the debate by a substantial margin.  Interesting.

Maybe because McCain forgot to wear his flag pin?

...did they attempt to survey anyone outside the building?

[USRufnex]

No.  Because flashpolls are notoriously liberal.

And Obama was given the answers beforehand.

CNN = Clinton News Network

Not once did Jim Lehrer or any of the CNN commentators call Obama by his proper name... Barack HUSSEIN Obama...

And John McCain had bad lighting due to liberal union stagehands......

I, for one, am outraged.

/sarcasm.

[pmcalk]

CBS poll of uncommitted voters:

39% Obama won
37% Draw
24% McCain won

46% said their opinion of Obama got better tonight;
32% said their opinion of McCain got better.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/26/politics/horserace/entry4482028.shtml

Given that this was suppose to be McCain's strong debate, it doesn't bode well.

[MH2010]

09/26/2008  2340 hours

{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}} WHO WON THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?...

MCCAIN
67% 103,829

OBAMA
31% 47,185

NEITHER
2% 3,503

Total Votes: 154,517