Most Accurate 2004 Poller has Delta at 1%

[Wrinkle]

Today's IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama's led has been cut to just over 1%

IBD/TIPP Poll 2008-10-23

...tight race, getting tighter.

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

Today's IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama's led has been cut to just over 1%

IBD/TIPP Poll 2008-10-23

...tight race, getting tighter.

very interesting that the upper middle income folks are trending to mccain and there are less undecided.

maybe this is why law enforcement agencies everywhere are preparing civil unrest contingency plans.  If Mccain wins we could have riots.

[guido911]

These polls are all over the place. I honestly do not trust a single one.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by inteller

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

Today's IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama's led has been cut to just over 1%

IBD/TIPP Poll 2008-10-23

...tight race, getting tighter.

very interesting that the upper middle income folks are trending to mccain and there are less undecided.

maybe this is why law enforcement agencies everywhere are preparing civil unrest contingency plans.  If Mccain wins we could have riots.

So let's just elect Obama to avoid unrest just like they did when they aquitted OJ.

Nah, race isn't an issue at all in this "historic" election.

[cannon_fodder]

Sorry, national polls are almost meaningless.  All that matters is electoral votes.  The polls still indicate a probably win for Obama, as far as I can tell.

If, according to the data, Obama wins Indiana, Florida, NC, or Missouri... OR Nevada, Montana AND North Dakota he wins the election.

McCain is making up ground, but it appears he is shoring up his base and limiting undecideds mostly in Red states.  That, I'm afraid, doesn't really help him.  Though, showing a national trend may help him in the undecided states.  Everyone likes a winner.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
(cite whatever electoral poll you want)

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71


So let's just elect Obama to avoid unrest just like they did when they aquitted OJ.

Nah, race isn't an issue at all in this "historic" election.

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/strawman.html

As the "straw man" metaphor suggests, the counterfeit position attacked in a Straw Man argument is typically weaker than the opponent's actual position, just as a straw man is easier to defeat than a flesh-and-blood one. Of course, this is no accident, but is part of what makes the fallacy tempting to commit, especially to a desperate debater who is losing an argument.  []

[tim huntzinger]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71



. . . unrest just like they did when they aquitted OJ.

That would be the Rodney King case, right?

[USRufnex]

Tim Huntzinger:  "That would be the Rodney King case, right?"



http://www.fallacyfiles.org/redherrf.html

The name of this fallacy comes from the sport of fox hunting in which a dried, smoked herring, which is red in color, is dragged across the trail of the fox to throw the hounds off the scent. Thus, a "red herring" argument is one which distracts the audience from the issue in question through the introduction of some irrelevancy. This frequently occurs during debates when there is an at least implicit topic, yet it is easy to lose track of it. By extension, it applies to any argument in which the premisses are logically irrelevant to the conclusion.

This is the most general fallacy of irrelevance. Any argument in which the premisses are logically unrelated to the conclusion commits this fallacy.

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

Today's IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama's led has been cut to just over 1%

IBD/TIPP Poll 2008-10-23

...tight race, getting tighter.

This is the poll that has 75% of the voters, aged 18-24, voting for McCain.  Right.  Young people are flocking to McCain in numbers never seen before.

My favorite website for analysis of polls explains why this poll is incorrect:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html


Really, who knows how close the race really is.  Polling is not a science--it's an art.

[USRufnex]

Waaaaasssuuuuppp!!!

8 years ago...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrYfNnreK88

Today...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE

[pmcalk]

Today, same poll, has Obama up by 4, still with the 18-24 voting for McCain by 60%.  Still highly unlikely.

[Ed W]

The nationwide popular vote is interesting but meaningless.  The electoral vote projections are the real game.  I like this one:

http://dvice.com/archives/2008/10/election_08_top.php

It's based on non-partisan polling data that's updated frequently.

DVICE has an interesting page too, but I haven;t had time to delve into it yet:

http://dvice.com/archives/2008/10/election_08_top.php

It's the top 10 electoral vote projections.

[Red Arrow]

I expect riots regardless of the winner. Celebration or anger.

Edit: I wish spell checker worked on this computer

[Hawkins]

You guys are cracking me up.

Uh, what is it Carlos Mencia does... Dee Deedee!!

IBD, Drudgereport, Faux News... these polls all say the race is getting tighter.

CNN, MSNBC, CBS... Obama is pulling away and heading for a landslide victory!

You guys want poll numbers, you need to search for'm from a nuetral news source. Good luck finding one, I might add, but IBD?

Dee deedee. A pro-business Republican publication. ANY doubt to this can be cleared up by reading the Opinion section of IBD.

This reminds me of the early days of the Iraq war. There were two wars being fought, one was on CNN, and an entirely different one was taking place on Faux News.

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by Hawkins

You guys are cracking me up.

Uh, what is it Carlos Mencia does... Dee Deedee!!

IBD, Drudgereport, Faux News... these polls all say the race is getting tighter.

CNN, MSNBC, CBS... Obama is pulling away and heading for a landslide victory!

You guys want poll numbers, you need to search for'm from a nuetral news source. Good luck finding one, I might add, but IBD?

Dee deedee. A pro-business Republican publication. ANY doubt to this can be cleared up by reading the Opinion section of IBD.

This reminds me of the early days of the Iraq war. There were two wars being fought, one was on CNN, and an entirely different one was taking place on Faux News.

You really should check out www.fivethirtyeight.com on a regular basis. It lists multiple poll both nationally and state then corrects for bias and weights them accordingly. Nate Silver has been on several shows including Colbert and the Daily show. Hardly a partisan. It is a great model that shows electoral projections as well as popular. In short, it is the poll with credibility right now. The race is tightening but not enough to matter.

Interesting to find out that the recently touted AP poll has very little credibility within the industry. Maybe because a former RNC executive is also the director at AP? Among other things it gives Obama a double digit lead among all respondents, but cuts it to 2pts when only likely voters are used. The likely voters is determined by whether they voted in the 2004 election. Totally ignores the massive registrations in the last four years.