Tulsa World Says We're Out of Step

[Wilbur]

Report: OK economy outpacing national averages

http://www.kjrh.com/news/state/story.aspx?content_id=ee23e669-d427-452f-9c1f-4b8bcdf7e16c

Tulsa in top five for home prices

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-11-18-home-prices-q3_N.htm#Biggest

[waterboy]

There's not much new here Wilbur. An OSU economist predicts what was posted earlier here, that the OKC economy will do better than Tulsa, who will show a slight decline next year. His predictions were based on third quarter figures. That is July-Sept. The financial crisis onset was late Sept. Think its reflected in those figures?

One wonders if you're reading these articles in depth or just cherry picking what looks like good news for Tulsa for spin sake. I want to be optimistic but the only thing I can see is mixed signals. For instance, the USAToday article has comments from all over the spectrum about the real estate market and the economy in general:

"The rise in foreclosures continued to drive down the median price of homes across the country in the third quarter, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday.
Economists expect the fourth quarter to be worse.

Between 35% and 40% of all transactions were either foreclosures or pre-foreclosure sales — called short sales — in the quarter, the report says, causing the national median price of a single-family home to drop to $200,500, 9% lower than the third quarter of 2007 and 11.9% off the peak of the housing boom, in the third quarter of 2005.

"Homes are selling because prices are plunging," said Patrick Newport, economist at Global Insight. "Prices are plunging because of distressed sales."


CHART: Biggest median price drops and gains

While existing home sales dropped from the third quarter of 2007 in the South and the Northeast by 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, the number of sales jumped 13.1% in the West and 2.7% in the Midwest.

"It isn't a sign that it is a healthy market," Newport said. "It is just a sign that banks are foreclosing on homes and slashing prices."

Note these are 3rd quarter numbers that don't take into account the September plunge. But even the guy who disagrees spins it by asserting that lowering prices is a good thing-

"Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors, disagrees. "People look at it as being bad. I see it as being good. The foreclosures and short sales are getting prices to where they belong." Sales jumped the most in Nevada, up 76%; California, 58.4%; and Arizona, 49.4%. All were among the five states with the highest number of foreclosure filings in October, according to RealtyTrac.

Some areas saw modest price gains, including Buffalo, up 3%, Tulsa, up 5.1%, and Wichita, up 5.5%. But prices dropped in the majority of the 152 metropolitan areas included in the survey. Also on Tuesday, a closely followed home-builder index recorded its lowest level of confidence in the industry since it was created in January 1985. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index, which peaked at 72 in mid-2005, was at 9 on Tuesday. The index reflects home builders' view of new home sales now and in the next six months.

"They've thrown in the towel," Naroff says. "We look for capitulation in the stock market, we've gotten it in the home builders' market."

He predicts the worst economic numbers will come in the fourth quarter. Newport agrees: "The economy really changed on Sept. 15 when Lehman Bros. went bankrupt. That's when credit came to a halt."

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by Wilbur

Name a state that voted democrat with a lower unemployment rate?  The top six, including Oklahoma, all voted republican.

http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/state_unemployment/

What do these top six states (SOUTH DAKOTA, WYOMING, NEBRASKA, UTAH, NORTH DAKOTA, OKLAHOMA) have in common???

They are states where nobody wants to live... aka "flyover country"...
And I mean that in the nicest possible way.  []

If you're recruiting top level workers who've never experienced life in these states, how do you recruit them?  

Here's a Clue about what NOT to do...  

Don't even try to brand a city that is dominated by cultural conservatives and an overabundance of right-wing koolaid drinking dittoheads as "comfortably cosmopolitan"... it just ain't-a-gonna cut it....

The next 5 states with the lowest unemployment rates actually voted for Obama, and those were:  NEW MEXICO, NEW HAMPSHIRE, IOWA, VIRGINIA, HAWAII.

My argument is that Oklahoma is one of a handful of states that actually has a problem with over-employment... the job market has had such low unemployement for such a long time, it takes a toll on the work ethic here.... job applicants here score lower on interviews/screenings... not necessarily because they're less qualified, but because they don't know what it's like to hunt and hunt for weeks/months in a difficult job market... so, there is an oddly awkward mentality of market-based job entitlement here that is nowhere to be found in most other states...

So, you heard it here first... from one of those "liberal dems"----- IMO, unemployment is actually too low in Oklahoma... which is why all too many local job applicants are SPOILED ROTTEN... and in certain sectors of the job market, you simply can't pay enough to get people who've never lived in Oklahoma to relocate here...

And the domination of far right, Republican party politics here has done little/nothing to help...

[Hometown]

I knew I was back home when I feel into a depression.  God bless Oklahoma.

[Wilbur]

Tulsa home values stay stable when values for the entire nation went down 9.7%.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?articleID=20081120_32_A1_hTheci59076

[TheArtist]

Well, so far nothing is happening beyond what I have expected for a long time. I am hoping we only see a slight decline for all of next year, then hold steady and start a slow uphill climb the year after. That would be the best case scenario if everything goes well.

I remember a long time ago being alarmed about how "well" the economy was doing and that we were due for a downturn. How Tulsa is usually behind the curve during the good times. Just as we were starting to see an uptick, our downtown begin to revive and see the beginnings of some urban living options in different areas.... I just had that sinking feeling, That would be when the downturn would hit. Usually seems to be Tulsas luck lol. Just as we start to gather up steam and see some really hopeful signs, the national economy collapses and pulls the rug right out from under us. It hasnt yet, but the grip is tight and braced to start pulling.

Looks like Bomasada is going to go through. Remember how I said we should take that development, though not perfect, because the economy was about to dive, and if we fussed and fought too much there was a good chance that future development might not happen and Brookside may stagnate at best, or see another downturn.  Though I think the Brookside and Cherry Street areas are small enough and have established themselves as THE main areas serving a much underserved demographic in the area.

I do really hope that next year doesnt put a damper on downtown developments like the Mayo Lofts and such. Whats in the pipeline and started should get done. Just hope they sell well or we will not likely see much of anything more for several years,,, under the best case scenario.

I hope Tulsa is positioned to do the "slow and steady" growth mode and will not see too bad a downturn next year. I think in a way our late growth start/downtown revitalization will help us. The building of the new Baseball Stadium will help keep a positive outlook and momentum going for downtown that we otherwise might see falter a bit. Even the River District investors seem to be plugging ahead with that large development. Its entirely likely that Tulsa will feel this recession less than the last ones. We will and already have been impacted by it, but I dont think it will be as bad as the last ones were on us.

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by Wilbur

Tulsa home values stay stable when values for the entire nation went down 9.7%.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?articleID=20081120_32_A1_hTheci59076

Man, you are such a headline reader. Those blinders you wear must be too tight...cutting off circulation to the big head.

Two things stick out,(besides this being a "whistling in the dark" rehash of other stories)-1. I have never seen a tax appraisers value of a home decline unless it is destroyed in some manner or foreclosed on. Owned homes in different neighborhoods for over 35years and used to sell real estate. That is a bogus method of valuating. The only way it becomes credible is when the tax assessment is based on selling price. 2. Read the comments following the story. They understand what I've been trying to tell you.

[Wilbur]

Chamber CEO says "Tulsa somewhat insulated from the economic crisis."  

http://www.ktul.com/news/stories/1108/571661.html

[USRufnex]

Well.... I moved here mostly based on lower housing prices, cost of living, unemployement... and with my dumb luck, the place I moved from (Chicago) has had a sharp drop in home prices (d'oh).... this national recession/depression is going to hit Oklahoma, and it'll be especially bad if the price of oil dips under $50 per barrel.... which is why my quest for a cheap house/condo is in "wait-and-see" mode these days...

I'm not asking much: I just wish Oklahoma would occasionally be a swing state-- like conservative Indiana and North Carolina were this year.

I like the people in this state, but I HATE the politics here.... the big LIE of the right is that a flat tax would benefit everyone, when the biggest beneficiaries would ironically be upper middle class folks in BLUE states, where $250,000 doesn't go nearly as far as it does here...

from the TW article:

"The worst-ever performance by a Democratic presidential candidate in Oklahoma was achieved by another liberal, George McGovern, who drew a scant 24 percent of the votes cast in 1972 against Richard Nixon's 73 percent and third-party candidate John G. Schmitz's 2 percent.

Back in the day when jobs, personal income and investment wealth were directly or indirectly tied to the oil and gas industries, Oklahoma was oftentimes out of step economically with the rest of the nation. High energy prices meant good times here and bad times elsewhere; conversely, low oil and gas prices spelled hard times in Oklahoma and good times in the non-producing states.

Nowadays Oklahoma is not quite so closely tethered to oil and gas and so it is more in phase with the economic ups and downs that prevail across the nation. Once again, however, Oklahoma finds itself out of step with much of the rest of the United States, not economically but politically.

That apparently is fine with a large majority of Oklahoma voters."

David Arnett isn't trying to tell Tulsans they should vote Democrat.... he's simply telling the truth about this state.

[Red Arrow]

quote:Originally posted by USRufnex

I'm not asking much: I just wish Oklahoma would occasionally be a swing state-- like conservative Indiana and North Carolina were this year.

Edit:Too quick on the keyboard return key, it posted before I could type my reply.

That would be similar to me wanting Massachusetts to turn conservative had I moved to near Boston during the 1980s tech bubble.

[nathanm]

quote:Originally posted by Wilbur

Tulsa home values stay stable when values for the entire nation went down 9.7%.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?articleID=20081120_32_A1_hTheci59076

I loved this part:

quote:
Curnutte said the area's values may decline somewhat in the near future, though Tulsa would remain insulated from much of the housing downturn because it never experienced a housing bubble.

Apparently nobody ever bothered to look at the graph's on Zillow's site. There's a bubble, it just didn't inflate as much as it has elsewhere, and there's value declines in most neighborhoods.

[Red Arrow]

quote:Originally posted by nathanm

quote:Originally posted by Wilbur

Tulsa home values stay stable when values for the entire nation went down 9.7%.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?articleID=20081120_32_A1_hTheci59076

I loved this part:

quote:
Curnutte said the area's values may decline somewhat in the near future, though Tulsa would remain insulated from much of the housing downturn because it never experienced a housing bubble.

Apparently nobody ever bothered to look at the graph's on Zillow's site. There's a bubble, it just didn't inflate as much as it has elsewhere, and there's value declines in most neighborhoods.

Just think, if we had confined our development area like some other cities, either artificially or by geographic obstacles, we could have had a huge increase in property values and now be suffering as much as the rest of the country.  Makes me feel out of step.

[Breadburner]

We are always behind the rest of the country....Our suffering is coming I hate to admit....

[nathanm]

quote:Originally posted by Red Arrow


Just think, if we had confined our development area like some other cities, either artificially or by geographic obstacles, we could have had a huge increase in property values and now be suffering as much as the rest of the country.  Makes me feel out of step.

Get a clue, the stupid price increases were not due to restricted development, but to a ridiculous amount of money being poured into the housing market. (for the purpose of selling MBS and CDS on those MBS)

Hell, even NW Arkansas' housing market is hurting, and they have essentially no development restrictions. Orlando? Hardly any development restrictions, but still a huge bubble, just like the rest of Florida.

Most of California is pretty damn pro-development, too. The parts that aren't are mostly the parts that were developed years and years ago.

Regardless, you ignored my point..there was a large increase in property values here around 2001-2002. Just look at the Zillow graphs for most any property. At least it was only a 30% overvaluation instead of 200%.

[Red Arrow]

quote:Originally posted by nathanm

quote:Originally posted by Red Arrow


Just think, if we had confined our development area like some other cities, either artificially or by geographic obstacles, we could have had a huge increase in property values and now be suffering as much as the rest of the country.  Makes me feel out of step.

Get a clue, the stupid price increases were not due to restricted development, but to a ridiculous amount of money being poured into the housing market. (for the purpose of selling MBS and CDS on those MBS)

Hell, even NW Arkansas' housing market is hurting, and they have essentially no development restrictions. Orlando? Hardly any development restrictions, but still a huge bubble, just like the rest of Florida.

Most of California is pretty damn pro-development, too. The parts that aren't are mostly the parts that were developed years and years ago.

Regardless, you ignored my point..there was a large increase in property values here around 2001-2002. Just look at the Zillow graphs for most any property. At least it was only a 30% overvaluation instead of 200%.

I didn't ignore your point. There have been posts on this forum promoting limiting the areas of development to increase  property values. I don't feel like wasting the time to dig them up. One specific example was the bridge over the Arkansas at the Yale & 121st area. A comparison was made to Portland (I believe) which had a river limiting development.  The area was commended for not building a bridge, thereby increasing property values by limiting the area available to build.

Housing costs are partly driven by supply and demand. Certainly some of the price is driven by the desire for a nicer "upscale" quality.

There had to be some reason why our bubble was only about 30% rather than 200%.  I doubt many of the posters on this forum would attribute it to the superior intellect of Oklahoma residents realizing the real value of a home not paying more than 30% over that value.  Maybe we have superior bankers that wouldn't lend the money to pay too much for a home that the borrower couldn't afford to pay back.  Maybe we are just too poor to have a 200% housing bubble, the best we could afford was 30%.  Still puts us out of step with the rest of the country.