News:

Long overdue maintenance happening. See post in the top forum.

Main Menu

The icepocalypse is coming...

Started by sgrizzle, January 26, 2010, 02:01:32 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

sgrizzle

National weather service is predicting power outages for 1-2 days, worse to the south. Ice accumulating on standing objects up to half an inch in Tulsa.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=badice

Hoss

#1
Quote from: sgrizzle on January 26, 2010, 02:01:32 PM
National weather service is predicting power outages for 1-2 days, worse to the south. Ice accumulating on standing objects up to half an inch in Tulsa.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=badice

They always err on the side of panic, Scott, especially after the 2007 behemoth.  Not saying that it won't happen, but there have been times where gloom and doom have been forecast and it just doesn't come to pass.

Be prepared though.  I always am.  Generator at the ready.

Also, if you go by what the latest WSW (Winter Storm Watch) terminology is saying .1 to .25 inches of ice accumulation; which puts the SPIA back at 1, which means sporadic outages.  I was a former spotter a long time ago and current meteo geek, so I've been following the models as much as possible and trying to decipher what the Tulsa WFO is saying about they're predictions.  Their latest one should come out around 3:30 pm.

FOTD

Travis (6) said last night his models indicated 6" to 3 feet, but he doubts the 3 feet....

Hunker down!

Conan71

Stormgasm.

I get tired of the hype, but that's kind of the point in having advanced weather modeling capabilities.

I need to go buy a jerry can or two of gas and test fire the old genny, just in case.  Fortunately a lot of weak limbs were knocked out of my trees and those of my neighbors during the '07 storm, it would appear.  As well, I had my trees trimmed last summer and my neighbor with the huge American elm next door had his trimmed and the last of the '07 debris pulled out of it a couple of months ago.

For those of you with electric cook tops: it might not be a bad idea to lay in some charcoal and fluid or propane bottles so you can use your outdoor grill to cook on for a few days, if necessary. 
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Hoss

Quote from: Conan71 on January 26, 2010, 02:18:36 PM
Stormgasm.

I get tired of the hype, but that's kind of the point in having advanced weather modeling capabilities.

I need to go buy a jerry can or two of gas and test fire the old genny, just in case.  Fortunately a lot of weak limbs were knocked out of my trees and those of my neighbors during the '07 storm, it would appear.  As well, I had my trees trimmed last summer and my neighbor with the huge American elm next door had his trimmed and the last of the '07 debris pulled out of it a couple of months ago.

For those of you with electric cook tops: it might not be a bad idea to lay in some charcoal and fluid or propane bottles so you can use your outdoor grill to cook on for a few days, if necessary. 

Luckily for me I have a gas stove (albeit with an electric ignition but that can be gotten around with matches).  I did most of my major shopping last night; I'll likely buy a few things after the hockey game tonight.  I should stock up on Big Jamoke.

;D

Everyone be safe.

nathanm

#5
I'm hoping the system keeps a little farther to the south. More snow, less freezing rain and sleet. Of course, that means nearly a foot of snow. :p

The NAM has been calling for nearly two feet of snow for a week now. I don't see that happening. The GFS has been at closer to a foot for some time now. The run-to-run consistency shown by a lot of the models is very high and has been for a week, so it's unlikely we'll see an all rain event unless the low tracks a lot farther north than the models have been forecasting.

</weatherdork>

My project for the day is getting my kerosene heater working again. Wick replacement is fun.  :-[
"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln

Conan71

Quote from: FOTD on January 26, 2010, 02:16:12 PM
Travis (6) said last night his models indicated 6" to 3 feet, but he doubts the 3 feet....

Hunker down!

Iceberg, Goldberg...what's the difference?

"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Conan71

Quote from: Hoss on January 26, 2010, 02:25:10 PM
Luckily for me I have a gas stove (albeit with an electric ignition but that can be gotten around with matches).  I did most of my major shopping last night; I'll likely buy a few things after the hockey game tonight.  I should stock up on Big Jamoke.

;D

Everyone be safe.

Some quality alcohol always improves a shut in day or three.
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

DolfanBob

So when should TPS start closing the Schools ?

Why by Gawd back in my Dads day, he walked to School in a foot of snow carrying his Sister over Ten Miles barefoot.
Changing opinions one mistake at a time.

YoungTulsan

The problem with these forecasts is that they can generate these very precise and intricate maps (such as a heavy swath of 0.75" ice from Okmulgee to Muskogee) but can't get the overall storm within 50 to 100 miles.  So, there will likely be a heavy band SOMEWHERE, but it could be in Bartlesville or Mcalester.   They also have numerous different models that give wildly varying data.  In the end, it usually comes down to a metereologist picking which one he/she "feels" like going with to present to the public.

3 feet, seriously, why would he even say that on the airwaves?
 

RecycleMichael

Yesterday I was on a beach in Florida where the temperature was 84 degrees.

Why did I come home now?
Power is nothing till you use it.

Hoss

Quote from: YoungTulsan on January 26, 2010, 04:02:30 PM
The problem with these forecasts is that they can generate these very precise and intricate maps (such as a heavy swath of 0.75" ice from Okmulgee to Muskogee) but can't get the overall storm within 50 to 100 miles.  So, there will likely be a heavy band SOMEWHERE, but it could be in Bartlesville or Mcalester.   They also have numerous different models that give wildly varying data.  In the end, it usually comes down to a metereologist picking which one he/she "feels" like going with to present to the public.

3 feet, seriously, why would he even say that on the airwaves?

Ah, the beauty of a global eco-system.  The jetstream slowing down just 1 knot less than expected can throw that off 70 miles.  That's why most of their messages include something about the forecasts being modified before arrival.

nathanm

Oh wonderful. If the model trends keep up with tracking the system more northward, we'll be in for some serious ice. Thankfully here in Tulsa it'll probably be more sleet than freezing rain, which will limit accumulations on power lines and trees at least.

I'm hoping for the warm layer to go away and keep it all snow. I'd prefer to have power this weekend.
"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln

Steve

What happens, happens.  I am worried that Tulsa will not have enough salt/sand to treat roadways.  We don't even have enough money to keep our policemen and firemen on the payroll.  It is everyman for himself.

Hoss

Quote from: Steve on January 26, 2010, 05:24:56 PM
What happens, happens.  I am worried that Tulsa will not have enough salt/sand to treat roadways.  We don't even have enough money to keep our policemen and firemen on the payroll.  It is everyman for himself.

Now the NWS is forecasting more ice for us in the Metro...on the order of about 7/8 of an inch, which puts us in the SPIA index of 4.  For those of you not familiar, here's a graphic: