Global Warming/Climate Change/Global Weirding?

[heironymouspasparagus]

Not a dead horse at all.  Cute cartoon, but doesn't really express very much of value.  400,000 year data set would be much more enlightening (so I brought one to the topic - see below.)  The problem is a chicken/egg question.  Does CO2 rise, causing a rise in temperature, or do temperatures rise leading to rise in CO2 from increased organic matter?

The Vostok core data  shows what I consider to be a strange phenomena.  For 400,000 years, the graphs show temp and CO2 going up and down.  The problem is, it shows the temperature rising before the CO2 goes up.  (Graph included for your viewing pleasure - 400,000 years ago is on the right, so as move to left, you come to the present.)  I printed out a copy and drew pretty little lines to make sure it wasn't an optical delusion.  It's not.  Dust also seems to accumulate during the down cycles, then is cleaned out by the up.

There is NO doubt the earth temp is rising, and I believe absolutely that we are contributing to it - which will tend to make things worse.  We did not start the process - there is too much past history of these cycles.

And I probably am repeating myself, but there are only two points to consider when wondering what can be done;  one, it won't matter.  Two, it is too late to do anything.  

And when you add in the fact that we have found not just one, but several mammoths who were in mid-bite, chowing on some grindage, when they were instantly freeze dried, it is obvious that things can and will happen very quickly.  This is several tons of well insulated animal - two feet of fat plus lots of hair for protection from cold.  Who is munching on fresh grass that is growing, so the temperature had to be fairly moderate, since a freeze kills grass.  And then some time later - before he has as chance to finish chewing and swallow, is now a big mammoth-sicle.

The net effect is that if you want to see what happens, watch the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow".

Graph;

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Vostok_Petit_data.svg

[Red Arrow]

I'm sorry, Nate.  If you can't come up with a consistent term to describe the phenomenon, then it isn't happening and I won't be paying attention to any of your so-called "data," or "charts," or "graphs," or that fellow "Al Gore." 

Because after all, science is just like politics:  totally and utterly spinnable.   And therefore utterly untrustworthy.

I hate to rain on your sarcasm parade but collection and interpretation of data is not always as black and white as you might like to think.  Al Gore has little credibility in the world of science for me.

[Townsend]

I hate to rain on your sarcasm parade but collection and interpretation of data is not always as black and white as you might like to think.  Al Gore has little credibility in the world of science for me.

Some folk believe cavemen rode dinosaurs to work.  There's a "museum" dedicated to it.

http://creationmuseum.org/

[Red Arrow]

Some folk believe cavemen rode dinosaurs to work.  There's a "museum" dedicated to it.

http://creationmuseum.org/

Is parking at the museum free? 

[Townsend]

Is parking at the museum free? 

Looks like it's included in the price of admission.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Is parking at the museum free? 

Free parking.  Big admission.

http://creationmuseum.org/

This one is closer - just outside of Ft. Worth.

http://www.creationevidence.org/

[Townsend]

Free parking.  Big admission.

http://creationmuseum.org/

This one is closer - just outside of Ft. Worth.

http://www.creationevidence.org/

Pilgrimage!

[nathanm]

Not a dead horse at all.  Cute cartoon, but doesn't really express very much of value.

I think it does. To me, it shows quite clearly one of the tricks deniers use to justify their denial to other people. Yes, there still are some ultramaroons out there who can't even agree that there is a warming trend. The term global warming is somewhat inapt because it fails to account for the changes which will occur in the various climate zones. The poles will likely warm the most, but other areas at lower latitudes may see local cooling due to shifts in weather patterns and ocean currents.

Regardless of what is causing it, it's a trend we need to slow if we would like to have the time necessary to shift our food production to other areas. At the rate of increase, we simply won't have the time to make the necessary observations to determine how weather patterns will change in enough detail. At present, we're only amplifying the existing trend. We got a temporary reprieve thanks to unusually low solar activity over the past few years. (some might call that divine intervention), but deniers just used the temporarily slowed temperature increase to further justify their position.

RA, Al Gore isn't a scientist and never claimed to be. He's a showman. He does what showmen do, he shows you things other people created in a (hopefully) entertaining and engaging way. His position on the subject is completely irrelevant to his validity. You're right that data collection isn't necessarily black and white, but when you get not only the majority of climatologists, but the vast majority of the scientific community, saying that the data does in fact appear to be valid, you ignore it at your own risk. Well, in this case, you ignore it at our collective risk. Even a former denier who attempted to find holes in the (recorded, not reconstructed) temperature record failed to do so.

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Even a former denier who attempted to find holes in the (recorded, not reconstructed) temperature record failed to do so.

Wow! One.

I remember when the majority of medical doctors believed that stomach ulcers were not caused by bacteria (or whatever it is that is now common knowledge).

[nathanm]

Wow! One.

I know, right! Amazing that someone with such an anti-science mindset would bother to do a rigorous analysis. First time ever, at least in this field. (Well, it was actually a team, but hey, who's counting) Needless to say, their compatriots quickly became former compatriots after they failed to convince him to fudge his conclusions. One of the biggest things the deniers have been harping on in the last year or two is the temperature record. Most ironically, the study was funded by Charles Koch in an attempt to validate the claim that the urban heat island effect was biasing the data.

Other than being done by a team of deniers, there's not any new ground broken in the study, as climatologists aren't idiots and previous assessments already corrected for it.

In other news, IPCC atmospheric carbon dioxide predictions turned out to be off. Too low, as it turns out.

[Red Arrow]

Amazing that someone with such an anti-science mindset would bother to do a rigorous analysis.

Got it.  Everyone not agreeing with the favorite answer is anti-science and an idiot.

[nathanm]

Got it.  Everyone not agreeing with the favorite answer is anti-science and an idiot.

Nope. Everyone not agreeing with the results of the literally hundreds of studies that caused consensus to form in the scientific community are anti-science, since they can't point to any reasoning behind that refusal beyond deliberate misinterpretations of the data as indicated in that nifty animation I posted. They may or may not be idiots. I don't think Charles Koch is an idiot, although he may be anti-science when it's in his best interest to be.

It's less settled, although still fairly clearly established, that human additions to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing warming. Denying the temperature record, on the other hand, is just being willfully blind to reality.

What would it take to convince you of the correctness of the present consensus?

[Red Arrow]

Nope. Everyone not agreeing with the results of the literally hundreds of studies that caused consensus to form in the scientific community are anti-science,

I disagree that they are anti-science.  One of my uncles followed this subject a lot closer than I did (until he passed away 2 years ago).  He pointed to opposing studies which I unfortunately cannot recall. Yea, I know, how convenient.  He was an engineer, not a politician or entertainer so I trusted his judgement.

It's less settled, although still fairly clearly established, that human additions to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing warming. Denying the temperature record, on the other hand, is just being willfully blind to reality.

Climate change has been happening forever.  It may be warming now.  I will agree to that possibility.  Satellites have better capability to integrate information over the globe than previous technologies.  That leaves us with a lot less years of directly comparable evidence.  I do not believe that mankind's contribution to warming is significant when I see the effects of volcanos present and past.  I see the global warming/climate change as almost a religious cause.  You must believe.....

What would it take to convince you of the correctness of the present consensus?

You probably cannot, at least not to the part where man is contributing to warming to the point where we could stop it or even significantly change anything.  This may in part be due to the theatrics presented by the true believers.  That kind of action flat turns me into a skeptic.  When exaggerations and distortions are intentionally made to make a point, I am suspect of the whole point.

I'm going to have to spin this back on you.  What would it take for you to believe in a possibility that at least man's contribution is insignificant?

[nathanm]

It would take evidence to the contrary that hasn't been debunked by people respected in the field, a lack of consensus among climatologists, or strong indication that most of the currently accepted data was fraudulent.

[Red Arrow]

It would take evidence to the contrary that hasn't been debunked by people respected in the field, a lack of consensus among climatologists, or strong indication that most of the currently accepted data was fraudulent.

A decent response except that I don't believe the current "people respected in the field" are presenting the facts, just the facts, and nothing but the facts. 

They have a credibility problem for me.