Market Today

[Conan71]

Lets say it started 1/20/09
Dow was at 7949.08
Dow is at 10,334 right now

So the dow is up 30% since Obama took office.

1/19/2001 the dow was at 10587 at 25% drop to 1/20/2009

That neglects to point out that many investors did quite well with the Dow topping out at 14,000+ during that time.

[Cats Cats Cats]

That neglects to point out that many investors did quite well with the Dow topping out at 14,000+ during that time.

This is very very true.  There is no money to be made in a stable market.  The money is on the swings.  This is where real money is made (even on the crashes).  So the banks and big $ investors have to produce instability to make money.  Its just the suckers with their retirement in their 401ks that can't do high frequency trading that get stuck holding the bag.

[Red Arrow]

If you think you are being stalked for your trash, add some dog gifts (Poo) to your normal trash.  It discouraged a trash router for a friend of mine.

[we vs us]

That neglects to point out that many investors did quite well with the Dow topping out at 14,000+ during that time.

A lot of that 14k was bubble-value.  ie. inflated by bad credit and poorly priced (and understood) financial products.

EDIT:  meaning only that it's unrealistic, IMO, to view that as a legit benchmark for the Dow to return to without another bubble inflating.

[RecycleMichael]

My trades executed in the first 4 minutes, and now (insert bomb falling sound) there it goes.

Market not falling yet. Do you have any Super Bowl picks I could bet against?

[Gaspar]

Market not falling yet. Do you have any Super Bowl picks I could bet against?

Da Bears!

[Gaspar]

Market not falling yet. Do you have any Super Bowl picks I could bet against?

I want the market to boom.  I have more in than out.  I just see indicators that it's headed in the wrong direction.  I am not a pro at this.

[RecycleMichael]

I want the market to boom.  

I don't want the market to boom. I want strong and steady growth that is at least double what the bank would pay me for my investment money. Market booms lead to market busts.

Now, if I was a day trader, I would want a roller-coaster market.

[Cats Cats Cats]

A lot of that 14k was bubble-value.  ie. inflated by bad credit and poorly priced (and understood) financial products.

EDIT:  meaning only that it's unrealistic, IMO, to view that as a legit benchmark for the Dow to return to without another bubble inflating.

All of the 14k was a bubble based on the accumilation of consumer debt.

[Conan71]

A lot of that 14k was bubble-value.  ie. inflated by bad credit and poorly priced (and understood) financial products.

EDIT:  meaning only that it's unrealistic, IMO, to view that as a legit benchmark for the Dow to return to without another bubble inflating.

Just like all the .com, biogen, and telecom IPO's and the advent of individual on-line trading did to inflate the Dow from 3300 to as high as 11,500 and finally settling in around 10,600 did during the Clinton years.  That should have sounded a lot of alarms as it signaled an unprecidented binge of public borrowing this country has never seen before and hopefully will never again.  Many companies were way over-valued either because people wanted in on the ground floor of the next big thing, or outright accounting scandals.  No, don't translate that into me blaming President Clinton.  It's more an indication of people seeking short-cuts to wealth.  One nice side-effect of that period is a lot of baby boomers had great gains in their retirement accounts, though a lot of those gains were cut when people reacted too slowly to downturns.

I'd far rather see slow and measured growth than the Dow tripling in eight years. 

[rwarn17588]

I am not a pro at this.

That's apparent.

Instead of wasting your money on trading fees and advisers, why don't you simply dollar-cost average into index mutual funds? It's a much-lower cost way of investing, and your money will follow the market's flow instead of you paying extra to have someone trying to chase the Dow or S&P 500 or Russell 2000 in vain.

People who try to beat the market or who think they're smarter than the market get burned. That sounds an awful lot like you.

[we vs us]

All of the 14k was a bubble based on the accumilation of consumer debt.

From what I've read, the actual money in play in the markets was more due to unregulated derivatives trading and the bundling of bad mortgages into depth-charge financial products than consumer debt. 

Not that consumer debt wasn't/isn't a problem, it's just that that money doesn't show up directly in the markets as a vehicle someone can invest in . . . and hence one that inflates or deflates in value.

[Conan71]

That's apparent.

Instead of wasting your money on trading fees and advisers, why don't you simply dollar-cost average into index mutual funds? It's a much-lower cost way of investing, and your money will follow the market's flow instead of you paying extra to have someone trying to chase the Dow or S&P 500 or Russell 2000 in vain.

Because it's for Pu$$ies. 

[Conan71]

From what I've read, the actual money in play in the markets was more due to unregulated derivatives trading and the bundling of bad mortgages into depth-charge financial products than consumer debt.  

Not that consumer debt wasn't/isn't a problem, it's just that that money doesn't show up directly in the markets as a vehicle someone can invest in . . . and hence one that inflates or deflates in value.

Derivatives aren't indexed by the Dow in the first place.  Banks and financial stock values were propped up by them and they essentially allowed banks and financials to hide losses a lot longer.  Let's face it, there's a whole lot of unsavory smile which has passed for savvy investing the last 20 years or so.  Let's hope the lesson has been learned.

[we vs us]

Derivatives aren't indexed by the Dow in the first place.  Banks and financial stock values were propped up by them and they essentially allowed banks and financials to hide losses a lot longer.  Let's face it, there's a whole lot of unsavory smile which has passed for savvy investing the last 20 years or so.  Let's hope the lesson has been learned.

You're right re: derivatives trading, but even if that money didn't show up directly as part of the major indices it was still in play in a broad sense within the investment world.  Consumer debt is much more directly connected to spending, and so isn't really available for investment.

But yeah, we agree on 99.9% of this.