Missile launch off the California coast?

[Ed W]

What appears to be a missile in this video has been described as possibly a jumbo jet on approach.  The military denied any launches and the news account points out that any private missile launch still requires air traffic clearance.  

But there may be another explanation.



It's a reflection of Venus distorted by swamp gas and colored by a vintage bottle of Tiger Rose wine.

Right.  Anyone know where North Korea's subs are just now?

[nathanm]

It is a contrail, and it probably isn't on approach, from how it looks to me. It's incredibly common for flights to pass almost directly overhead from the west near sunset here. Not so common in LA. Even less common for them to have enough clouds to produce the unusual shadow effect on the contrail that makes the part nearer the aircraft look bright.

[Red Arrow]

The couple of videos I have seen look like it is too fast for a regular plane.  Who knows if the videos were real time or time altered.  One source said it was too slow for a missile.  Maybe it's a fast military plane.

[Ed W]

If this was an aircraft, it would have been equipped with a transponder that air traffic control could track.  I could be wrong, but I think they keep records of all air traffic so this would have been easily verified.  Here's how it works.  A ground radar sends an interrogator pulse that the aircraft transponder receives.  It replies with another pulse containing the flight number and altitude.  This is relatively low power radar, unlike military radar that can get a return from a 'skin paint' echo from the aircraft. 

[Townsend]

This is my theory.

[Red Arrow]

If this was an aircraft, it would have been equipped with a transponder that air traffic control could track.  I could be wrong, but I think they keep records of all air traffic so this would have been easily verified.  Here's how it works.  A ground radar sends an interrogator pulse that the aircraft transponder receives.  It replies with another pulse containing the flight number and altitude.  This is relatively low power radar, unlike military radar that can get a return from a 'skin paint' echo from the aircraft. 

I am familiar with transponders.  I just had to replace one that failed in my plane that was too old to be worth fixing. Transponders have on/off switches. They also have several modes.  I also remember the military has some modes that civilian planes do not have.  Do you think our military planes have civilian mode transponders on when they attack?  I'm not saying it could not be a missile or that it had to be a military plane, just keeping the options open.

[Hoss]

If this was an aircraft, it would have been equipped with a transponder that air traffic control could track.  I could be wrong, but I think they keep records of all air traffic so this would have been easily verified.  Here's how it works.  A ground radar sends an interrogator pulse that the aircraft transponder receives.  It replies with another pulse containing the flight number and altitude.  This is relatively low power radar, unlike military radar that can get a return from a 'skin paint' echo from the aircraft.  

Conan would chime in I'm sure, but as one of the pilots in the group (and I have ATC friends as well) your information is partially right and partially wrong.

Civilian, or FAA radar can get a 'skin paint' (ATC terms this is called a primary RADAR return).

Flight numbers aren't associated to transponders, they're associated to tail numbers (I know it's semantics, but there's a big difference between the two).  Each aircraft upon registration and if so fitted with a transponder (not all have them, but there are restrictions on where a/c can fly without one) is issued a 24-bit hex code that identifies it uniquely.

There are different types of transponder modes

Mode 3A (usually called just Mode A), when interrogated by radar, sends back a 4 digit octal code (the squawk code) that is usually assigned by ATC prior to an aircraft's departure.

Mode C provides the aircraft's pressure altitude.

Mode S, which really isn't a radar mode at all, is a now-optional piece of data provided usually for the use CAS (Collision Avoidance Systems).  It's used in conjunction with the 24-bit hex code I noted above, and typically used for larger airliners and their TCAS systems (almost the same as CAS, but it's an 'active' system).

And RA is correct, there are several other modes used that civilain aircraft either share with the military, or are restricted from use completely.

* Mode 1 – provides 2-digit 5-bit mission code. (military only – cockpit selectable)
* Mode 2 – provides 4-digit octal unit code. (military only – set on ground for fighters, can be changed in flight by transport aircraft)
* Mode 4 – provides a 3-pulse reply to crypto coded challenge. (military only)
* Mode 5 – provides a cryptographically secured version of Mode S and ADS-B GPS position. (military only)
*

[dbacks fan]

It's really hard to tell from the video what direction it is traveling. I tend to think that it is a military aircraft traveling eastward towards the coast above 40k feet. The contrail fans out towards what appears to be the horizon, and bcomes smaller towards the tip wich is reflecting the sun which is coming from the southwest at this time of year.

It could be a B-1B they have a service ceiling of either 50k or 60k feet and at altitude travel 800mph. It could be a NASA U2 research plane. I will say this Arizona is in the middle of a triangle with White Sands to the east, Edwards and Vandenberg to the west and Area 51/Groom Lake to the north.

I have seen the contrails from launches from White Sands and this is similar but it's not traveling as fast as what has been launched from there.

My biggest thing is, that know one seems to have a clue as to what it was.

[patric]

The Brits are more adventuresome:


Mystery 'missile' launch in US: the theories
The condensation trail, or contrail, of an apparent missile launch off the coast of California west of Los Angeles has prompted speculation as to what might have caused it. Here are some of the theories.
Mystery 'missile' launch in US: the theories

Doug Richardson, the editor of Jane's Missiles and Rockets, said it might have been a Standard interceptor, the anti-missile weapon which is fitted to the US Navy's Aegis guided-missile cruisers as part of the American missile defence programme.

He said: "It's a solid propellant missile, you can tell from the efflux [smoke] but they're not showing enough of the tape to show whether it's staging [jettisoning its sections]."

Robert Ellsworth, the former US Deputy Secretary of Defence, said it was "pretty big" but "not a Tomahawk" cruise missile.

He said: "It could be a test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a submarine to demonstrate to Asia that we can do that."

US President Barack Obama is presently on tour in Asia and gave a speech in Jakarta, in Indonesia, on Wednesday.

The authorities have examined their radar records to check that no foreign power was behind it. Last week, the Japanese Navy test-fired an American Standard interceptor from one of its Kongo-class guided-missile destroyers off Kauai, in Hawaii, but there were no known plans for another test this week.

Others have speculated that it could be a target which was launched to test anti-missile lasers which are currently being developed and do get trialled in the Pacific.

There have even been those keen to announce it as an alien UFO.

A more down-to-earth - and non-military - explanation was given by John Pike, director of the US-based security analyst firm globalsecurity.org.

He said: "The local station chopped up the video and so it's hard to watch it continuously but at one place you can see it has changed course - rockets don't do that."

He added it was most likely to be a normal aircraft contrail which appears different in the sun: "It's an airplane that is heading toward the camera and the contrail is illuminated by the setting sun."

Others have claimed it could be the work of amateur missile enthusiasts. In 2004, a group called the Civilian Space eXploration Team flew a 21ft rocket with a solid fuel motor to 72 miles high (116km) from a launch site in Nevada.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8122177/Mystery-missile-launch-in-US-the-theories.html

[sgrizzle]

Where's Altruismsuffers?

[dbacks fan]

Where's Altruismsuffers?

Some of us kind of beat him about the head back in September. We kind of called him on the carpet and he had no answers.

[BKDotCom]

Here's the viral nutjob explanation.  Enjoy.

[dbacks fan]

Here's the viral nutjob explanation.  Enjoy.

[custosnox]

Here's the viral nutjob explanation.  Enjoy.

For you reading entertainment

http://www.pleiadians.com/

[dbacks fan]

Glenn Beck seems to think it was the Chinese sending us a message.

http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/47908/