Our Dumb Electorate

[we vs us]

Actually, not so much dumb as mislead.   In a World Opinion poll of voters in the 2010 midterms,

". . .9 in 10 voters said that in the 2010 election they encountered information they believed was misleading or false, with 56% saying this occurred frequently.  Fifty-four percent said that it had been more frequent than usual, while just three percent said it was less " 

Big deal, you say? 

"Equally significant, the poll found strong evidence that voters were substantially misinformed on many of the key issues of the campaign. Such misinformation was correlated with how people voted and their exposure to various news sources.

Voters' misinformation included beliefs at odds with the conclusions of government agencies, generally regarded as non-partisan, consisting of professional economists and scientists."

Some of the things that people believed erroneously in the last election include:

•   Though the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) concluded that the stimulus legislation has saved or created 2.0-5.2 million jobs, only 8% of voters thought most economists who had studied it concluded that the stimulus legislation had created or saved several million jobs. Most (68%) believed that economists estimate that it only created or saved a few jobs and 20% even believed that it resulted in job losses.
•   Though the CBO concluded that the health reform law would reduce the budget deficit, 53% of voters thought most economists have concluded that health reform will increase the deficit.
•   Though the Department of Commerce says that the US economy began to recover from recession in the third quarter of 2009 and has continued to grow since then, only 44% of voters thought the economy is starting to recover, while 55% thought the economy is still getting worse.
•   Though the National Academy of Sciences has concluded that climate change is occurring, 45% of voters thought most scientists think climate change is not occurring (12%) or that scientists are evenly divided (33%).
•   40% of voters believed incorrectly that the TARP legislation was initiated under Barack Obama, rather than George Bush
•   31% believed it was proven true that the US Chamber of Commerce spent large amounts of money it had raised from foreign sources to support Republican candidates
•   54% believed that there were no tax cuts in the stimulus legislation
•   86% assumed their taxes had gone up (38%) or stayed the same (48%), while only 10% were aware that their taxes had gone down since 2009
•   53% thought that the bailout of GM and Chrysler occurred only under Obama, though it was initiated under Bush

Turns out that (surprise!) a key source of misinformation was a single news outlet: Fox News.

"Those who watched Fox News almost daily were significantly more likely than those who never watched it to believe that most economists estimate the stimulus caused job losses (12 points more likely), most economists have estimated the health care law will worsen the deficit (31 points), the economy is getting worse (26 points), most scientists do not agree that climate change is occurring (30 points), the stimulus legislation did not include any tax cuts (14 points), their own income taxes have gone up (14 points), the auto bailout only occurred under Obama (13 points), when TARP came up for a vote most Republicans opposed it (12 points) and that it is not clear that Obama was born in the United States (31 points). The effect was also not simply a function of partisan bias, as people who voted Democratic and watched Fox News were also more likely to have such misinformation than those who did not watch it--though by a lesser margin than those who voted Republican."

(See also: internal Fox News memos regarding methods of reporting on healthcare, climate change, etc.)

So:  if our political system and our economic philosophy both rely on individuals making enlightened choices with the best information available, it would follow, then, that both our political system and our economic philosophy are being undermined by this sort of thing, wouldn't it?

[Gaspar]

That's why it's a good idea to get news from multiple networks. 

I'm glad we have the freedom to change channels any time we wish and get news from whatever source we wish.  It's like Jelly Bellies. . .so many flavors.  What a great country!

[TulsaMoon]

World Opinion Poll. Funded by the Calvert Foundation and The Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

Calvert Foundation's mission is to maximize the flow of capital to disadvantaged communities in order to create a more equitable and sustainable society.

The Rockefeller Brothers Fund advances social change that contributes to a more just, sustainable, and peaceful world.

I am to believe a poll funded directly by these two organizations? Thats like a FOX news watcher asking you to believe a poll funded directly by The Heritage Foundation.

[Red Arrow]

Actually, not so much dumb as mislead. 

Quote
•   Though the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) concluded that the stimulus legislation has saved or created 2.0-5.2 million jobs, only 8% of voters thought most economists who had studied it concluded that the stimulus legislation had created or saved several million jobs. Most (68%) believed that economists estimate that it only created or saved a few jobs and 20% even believed that it resulted in job losses.
•   Though the CBO concluded that the health reform law would reduce the budget deficit, 53% of voters thought most economists have concluded that health reform will increase the deficit.
•   Though the Department of Commerce says that the US economy began to recover from recession in the third quarter of 2009 and has continued to grow since then, only 44% of voters thought the economy is starting to recover, while 55% thought the economy is still getting worse.
•   Though the National Academy of Sciences has concluded that climate change is occurring, 45% of voters thought most scientists think climate change is not occurring (12%) or that scientists are evenly divided (33%).
•   40% of voters believed incorrectly that the TARP legislation was initiated under Barack Obama, rather than George Bush
•   31% believed it was proven true that the US Chamber of Commerce spent large amounts of money it had raised from foreign sources to support Republican candidates
•   54% believed that there were no tax cuts in the stimulus legislation
•   86% assumed their taxes had gone up (38%) or stayed the same (48%), while only 10% were aware that their taxes had gone down since 2009
•   53% thought that the bailout of GM and Chrysler occurred only under Obama, though it was initiated under Bush

The CBO's record is not good enough to trust it implicitly.

Whether or not the economy is getting better/worse probably depends as much on ones personal situation as it does a Department of Commerce report.

Climate change.... Yep, it's always changing.  How much is caused by humans is not proven in the minds of many.  The zealots have not done themselves any favors in the last few years.

Tax cuts in the stimulus.  I didn't need or buy a new car, storm windows, heater/airconditioner (replaced it about 4 years ago).

Income tax.  Withholding changed about $5/check.  I am fortunate enough that $130/yr does not make me jump and shout.  (Waiting for Nathan to claim marginal utility.  Although it wasn't a specific purchase, I will claim buying a bit more Marshall's with that money.)  I will need to see the tax forms to determine if my income tax goes down due to rates or the fact that my investment income went from meager to almost zero.


I could believe the network news in the days of Walter Cronkite.  Our family stopped watching CBS with the change to Dan Rather.  Didn't he wind up in some kind of difficulty about a news broadcast?

[Gaspar]

[Conan71]

It's the dumb masses Wevus.

Wow! Surprise!  So Fox watchers are dumb, is that the conclusion?  No spin on those poll results.  Also keep in mind CBO numbers are not infallible.

[Red Arrow]

It's the dumb masses Wevus.

Wow! Surprise!  So Fox watchers are dumb, is that the conclusion?  No spin on those poll results.  Also keep in mind CBO numbers are not infallible.

Wevsus lives in the spin zone.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Not infallible, but better than most.  And depended on by both sides to rationalize their excesses.

Red, it just shows you how badly middle America gets it in the seat.  While you were enjoying your $130, the 1%'ers were enjoying their $100,000 to $200,000 or $5 to $10 million extra.  But then, they certainly deserve it more than the "little people".

Or in the case of the Abercrombie CEO, his extra $30 million out of the 100+ million he was paid for taking a company to the point where they made a whopping $250,000 profit that year.  Well worth the money!!

[Red Arrow]

Not infallible, but better than most.  And depended on by both sides to rationalize their excesses.

Red, it just shows you how badly middle America gets it in the seat.  While you were enjoying your $130, the 1%'ers were enjoying their $100,000 to $200,000 or $5 to $10 million extra.  But then, they certainly deserve it more than the "little people".

Or in the case of the Abercrombie CEO, his extra $30 million out of the 100+ million he was paid for taking a company to the point where they made a whopping $250,000 profit that year.  Well worth the money!!

And while my $130 went to beer, their huge chunks of money sat in a honey jar on the shelf.  Just goes to show that cutting my taxes didn't help the economy much although I enjoyed the beer.

I won't argue the issue of overpaid CEOs not leading their companies to insanely high profits. Stockholders should revolt.

[Gaspar]

It's the dumb masses Wevus.

Wow! Surprise!  So Fox watchers are dumb, is that the conclusion?  No spin on those poll results.  Also keep in mind CBO numbers are not infallible.

On the contrary.  CBO numbers have proven to be fallible 100% of the time.

[Gaspar]

Not infallible, but better than most.  And depended on by both sides to rationalize their excesses.

Red, it just shows you how badly middle America gets it in the seat.  While you were enjoying your $130, the 1%'ers were enjoying their $100,000 to $200,000 or $5 to $10 million extra.  But then, they certainly deserve it more than the "little people".

Or in the case of the Abercrombie CEO, his extra $30 million out of the 100+ million he was paid for taking a company to the point where they made a whopping $250,000 profit that year.  Well worth the money!!

So. . . to build wealth, someone must suffer?  Is that how it works?

[we vs us]

It's the dumb masses Wevus.

Wow! Surprise!  So Fox watchers are dumb, is that the conclusion?  No spin on those poll results.  Also keep in mind CBO numbers are not infallible.

Actually no, not dumb.  I meant the title as a riff on an Onion coffee table book, "Our Dumb Century," not as an actual ding on the public.  My point was that there was a much-increased amount of disinformation in the air during our latest election, and that much of that disinformation informed voters choices.  This is bad, IMO, not because I disagree with conservative choices, but it's bad because people are making conservative choices based on bad data pushed by a couple of significant outlets. 

This study was the first good measure, post-election, of that bad data effect.  It also coincides with the new Citizens United verdict, which has allowed all that corporate money into our political debate. It's not a stretch to suggest that 2012 will be far worse in terms of finding fact.

Gaspar: IMO, consumer choice and factual reporting don't always coincide . . . doesn't Fox (and MSNBC for that matter) have a responsibility to be both an economic entity (to compete for customers and attend to their bottom lines) and a civic entity (to report the news for the edification of the citizenry)?  Or is the responsibility solely on the part of the consumer to judge whether the station is quality or not?

[Gaspar]

Gaspar: IMO, consumer choice and factual reporting don't always coincide . . . doesn't Fox (and MSNBC for that matter) have a responsibility to be both an economic entity (to compete for customers and attend to their bottom lines) and a civic entity (to report the news for the edification of the citizenry)?  Or is the responsibility solely on the part of the consumer to judge whether the station is quality or not?

It is the responsibility of the consumer.  There are extremes on both sides.  Fox News represents an obviously conservative spin and MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC, NPR, The Daily Show, MTV, CNN, PBS, and CNBC offer a more liberal spin.  It is the responsibility of the consumer to make their own decisions.  You cannot take that away.

The whole jist of your argument to point a finger and say "you're stupid because you watch FOX."  Unfortunately that is argumentum ad hominem.  All of the networks are cited in fallacy and slant on a daily basis.  Because it has now become FOX vs everyone else (there are no other conservative based news organizations), their inaccuracies are magnified. 

I admit Fox is very conservative, and I distrust all of the spin I hear there, but I also watch CBS, and MSNBC and the spin and fallacy is also very apparent there, it just only makes news on one network.

[Hoss]

It is the responsibility of the consumer.  There are extremes on both sides.  Fox News represents an obviously conservative spin and MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC, NPR, The Daily Show, MTV, CNN, PBS, and CNBC offer a more liberal spin.  It is the responsibility of the consumer to make their own decisions.  You cannot take that away.

The whole jist of your argument to point a finger and say "you're stupid because you watch FOX."  Unfortunately that is argumentum ad hominem.  All of the networks are cited in fallacy and slant on a daily basis.  Because it has now become FOX vs everyone else (there are no other conservative based news organizations), their inaccuracies are magnified. 

I admit Fox is very conservative, and I distrust all of the spin I hear there, but I also watch CBS, and MSNBC and the spin and fallacy is also very apparent there, it just only makes news on one network.

But the problem I have with Fox is their mantra of 'fair and balanced' when they aren't.  I don't care so much that they are essentially the media arm of the RNC, but call a spade and spade, please.  Don't try and tell people you report down the middle when it's obvious you don't.

[RecycleMichael]

...you're stupid because you watch FOX...

I thought I would do to you what FOX News does to the truth.