Stormgasms

[TurismoDreamin]

Today is gonna be bad guys. Every single forecast model has this storm off the charts. Instability, wind shear, helicity, etc are all prime for a tornado outbreak. CAPE is very high and with the daytime heating to help boost convection, CIN (the inhibiting factor of CAPE) will be nonexistent. Those pictures that Hoss posted aren't up-to-date. SPC increased the tornado risk from 30% when they first issued the high risk to a 45% hatch area. That is very high. Hail risk also went up from 45% last night to 60%. This is like a Tuscaloosa event in Oklahoma. I'm predicting that storm initiation will start by 3-4p along I-35 but I wouldn't be surprised it started sooner closer to 2pm. Keep an eye on ALL severe weather warnings...especially severe storm warnings and tornado warnings. They only issue tornado warnings when they see strong rotation on radar, rotation on radar that is confirmed by storm spotters, or a confirmed tornado/funnel cloud.
If you don't have a weather radio, KRMG has the best weather reporting for public radio. They've been on the dot for several storms in the years past.



And for anyone who is interested.....




SPC Day 1 outlook



SPC tornado risk


SPC hail risk



EHI 0-3km (CAPE + Helicity) @ 1900


CAPE @ 1900


Helicity 0-3km @ 1900


Wind shear 850MB height


Wind shear 500mb height



Winds 850mb - notice the backing of winds along the frontal boundary and convergence at the dryline. Very classic.


And surface mixing ratio

[sauerkraut]

We'll get thru it- The weathermen are also wrong many times. The cold winter we had results in a active twister season because of the vast differences in air temps. The NW states still have huge amounts of snow on the ground and very cold air, when that cold air moves south and clashes with the warm gulf air storms fire up. As the season wears on and the cold air warms up there will not be as many storms.

[Gaspar]

Updated!

[Hoss]

We'll get thru it- The weathermen are also wrong many times. The cold winter we had results in a active twister season because of the vast differences in air temps. The NW states still have huge amounts of snow on the ground and very cold air, when that cold air moves south and clashes with the warm gulf air storms fire up. As the season wears on and the cold air warms up there will not be as many storms.

Just stop it already...wow.

Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express too?

[dbacks fan]

Just stop it already...wow.

Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express too?

Too ritzy for him. I heard he lives in one of the No Tell Motels on Admiral by Dreamland.

[Hoss]

Too ritzy for him. I heard he lives in one of the No Tell Motels on Admiral by Dreamland.

don't diss that part of town..I live down the street.  LOL.

[Hoss]

Today is gonna be bad guys. Every single forecast model has this storm off the charts. Instability, wind shear, helicity, etc are all prime for a tornado outbreak. CAPE is very high and with the daytime heating to help boost convection, CIN (the inhibiting factor of CAPE) will be nonexistent. Those pictures that Hoss posted aren't up-to-date. SPC increased the tornado risk from 30% when they first issued the high risk to a 45% hatch area. That is very high. Hail risk also went up from 45% last night to 60%. This is like a Tuscaloosa event in Oklahoma. I'm predicting that storm initiation will start by 3-4p along I-35 but I wouldn't be surprised it started sooner closer to 2pm. Keep an eye on ALL severe weather warnings...especially severe storm warnings and tornado warnings. They only issue tornado warnings when they see strong rotation on radar, rotation on radar that is confirmed by storm spotters, or a confirmed tornado/funnel cloud.
If you don't have a weather radio, KRMG has the best weather reporting for public radio. They've been on the dot for several storms in the years past.



And for anyone who is interested.....




SPC Day 1 outlook



SPC tornado risk


SPC hail risk



EHI 0-3km (CAPE + Helicity) @ 1900


CAPE @ 1900


Helicity 0-3km @ 1900


Wind shear 850MB height


Wind shear 500mb height



Winds 850mb - notice the backing of winds along the frontal boundary and convergence at the dryline. Very classic.


And surface mixing ratio

Well, they were up-to-date when I posted them.

[dbacks fan]

don't diss that part of town..I live down the street.  LOL.

I lived just west of the UAW Hall at Pine and Memorial for 7 years. Oklahoma and N78th E Ave.

[BaltimorePoke]

Here we go!  Storms popping up in western OK by Clinton.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[nathanm]

I feel like the entire city is having a stormgasm right now. Prepare, don't freak out and make she who must be obeyed tell me to find a place to put the pets right now.

Besides, the sigtor parameters aren't favoring Tulsa. We're more likely to see a strong, long lived tornado in SE Oklahoma. And it may turn out that there's too much forcing to favor tornadoes at all. Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are a near certainty in the general area, however.

[Ibanez]

It looks like our chances for a tornado are still good, but have dropped from when I checked it earlier in the day. This morning were in a 3.9 area for a > F2 tornado. Unless their map is screwed up we're now in a 0.0 for that.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/dsp.php

[Hoss]

It looks like our chances for a tornado are still good, but have dropped from when I checked it earlier in the day. This morning were in a 3.9 area for a > F2 tornado. Unless their map is screwed up we're now in a 0.0 for that.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/dsp.php

My concern isn't so much that we've dropped in chances; the chance will still be there.  Now they're pushing it back to the '8pm-1am' timeframe, which always scares me.  Tornadoes at nighttime.  Just cannot be much more dangerous, even if you can see the transformers popping...

I also noticed today when I went home for lunch that Dr. Forbes of TWC was using his inane 'TORCON' index.  He put ours right around 9 of 10...

[bmuscotty]

Besides, the sigtor parameters aren't favoring Tulsa.

I thought alot of it had to do with the amount of sunshine we get. Sun causes the moisture to come out of the ground and into the air making it unstable. Or something like that. We haven't see that much sun here today at least where I live. Correct me if I'm wrong.  

[Hoss]

I thought alot of it had to do with the amount of sunshine we get. Sun causes the moisture to come out of the ground and into the air making it unstable. Or something like that. We haven't see that much sun here today at least where I live. Correct me if I'm wrong.  

No, you're correct, but the optimum heating for the day is right now and the sun has been out more the latter half of the afternoon than the former half.  But not having it out all day will help I think.

And it's actually not making the moisture come out of the ground..the moisture already is existing in the low to mid levels.  The sun is the fuel for the engine.  It coerces lifting and mixing.

[bmuscotty]

I was way off. Thanks for letting me know!! Everybody be safe no matter what happens today.