The Double Dip Has Arrived

[joiei]

Thanks G, I like your to the point answer.

[Conan71]

How come when the stock market takes a hit of 2 1/2% it is all doom and gloom but when like today the markets end up with a gain of 490 points there is hardly any talk.  

Just curious.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futures-signal-losses-focus-094410132.html

The media has figured out bad news sells far better than good news.  Just ask George Bush.

Aside from that, optimism is out of vogue.

[Gaspar]

I hear that President Obama emerged from the oval office this morning and saw his shadow.

SIX MORE WEEKS OF RECESSION!

[we vs us]

The big danger to the economy now is Europe.  Without that external headwind, we'd be growing slowly but steadily.  It will be interesting to me to see who will take the blame for a recession (if it happens) caused entirely by something outside of our control. 

[nathanm]

The big danger to the economy now is Europe.  Without that external headwind, we'd be growing slowly but steadily.  It will be interesting to me to see who will take the blame for a recession (if it happens) caused entirely by something outside of our control. 

The ridiculous part is that the Fed is providing more liquidity to Eurozone banks than the ECB is. The root of the problem, however, is that Germany is in denial. They seem to think that they can force their neighbors to undergo 15-20% wage reductions and still keep their export economy intact. They don't want inflation because they're, well, German, and they don't want to share in the pain. They have to pick one or the other or the Euro is done for. Thus far, they have refused to act and the fire is beginning to eat away at the hull of the ship.

In some ways, this is a huge advantage for us here in the US (a rump Euro makes a piss poor reserve currency), but if events continue the way they have been, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

[Red Arrow]

It will be interesting to me to see who will take the blame for a recession (if it happens) caused entirely by something outside of our control. 

Bush

[we vs us]

The ridiculous part is that the Fed is providing more liquidity to Eurozone banks than the ECB is. The root of the problem, however, is that Germany is in denial. They seem to think that they can force their neighbors to undergo 15-20% wage reductions and still keep their export economy intact. They don't want inflation because they're, well, German, and they don't want to share in the pain. They have to pick one or the other or the Euro is done for. Thus far, they have refused to act and the fire is beginning to eat away at the hull of the ship.

In some ways, this is a huge advantage for us here in the US (a rump Euro makes a piss poor reserve currency), but if events continue the way they have been, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

I vote for the "it's going to get worse" part.  Not necessarily because I'm a pessimist but because we're all so interconnected now.  For all of our sturm und drang about them taking over the world, China's economy is also in an increasing pickle (their own credit/housing bubbles, an economy and growth curve almost entirely based around the dollar-pegged yuan and exports-exports-exports); if Europe goes, and we go, I'd be afraid that China might follow suit.

[nathanm]

I vote for the "it's going to get worse" part.  Not necessarily because I'm a pessimist but because we're all so interconnected now.  For all of our sturm und drang about them taking over the world, China's economy is also in an increasing pickle (their own credit/housing bubbles, an economy and growth curve almost entirely based around the dollar-pegged yuan and exports-exports-exports); if Europe goes, and we go, I'd be afraid that China might follow suit.

China has already followed suit. They did pretty much the opposite of what we did, mainlining a bunch of fiscal stimulus and letting their municipalities run up enormous debts for largely useless projects and ended up driving RMB inflation sky high. That you don't see more support of the Euro by China is a fairly strong indication of where they are right now. Why is this happening? Because the domestic consumption the nattering nabobs of negativism were on about over the past couple of years was almost entirely debt funded. It had to be, most Chinese don't get paid jack smile. You can't run a modern economy in the style of some 19th century early industrial revolution economy and expect it to work well.

You'll note we have something of the same problem here, just without the inflation because our debt bubble quit growing, unlike China's.

[Conan71]

Going slightly o/t here: Speaking of China and trying to help our economy, I'm currently in the market for a higher end slide in range and dishwasher for a kitchen renovation project.  Thus far, I keep finding appliances which are made in Canada or China, seems to be hard to even find high end GE or Frigidaire built in the U.S.  I suspected lower end units would be made in China or Mexico but really surprised we don't even make the high end stuff here any more.  If anyone knows of a manufacturer who is standing pat on American production and assembly, I'd love to go that route.  At the very least I will buy from a locally-owned store if I can't find American-made.

[Townsend]

Going slightly o/t here: Speaking of China and trying to help our economy, I'm currently in the market for a higher end slide in range and dishwasher for a kitchen renovation project.  Thus far, I keep finding appliances which are made in Canada or China, seems to be hard to even find high end GE or Frigidaire built in the U.S.  I suspected lower end units would be made in China or Mexico but really surprised we don't even make the high end stuff here any more.  If anyone knows of a manufacturer who is standing pat on American production and assembly, I'd love to go that route.  At the very least I will buy from a locally-owned store if I can't find American-made.

The FB link Gaspar provided has both those things on sale at Sage.  GO take a gander.  Seems like a pretty good deal if they're in as good a shape as they look.

http://www.facebook.com/groups/162124153883903/#!/media/set/?set=a.10150394457391519.351420.189680196518&type=1

[Conan71]

The FB link Gaspar provided has both those things on sale at Sage.  GO take a gander.  Seems like a pretty good deal if they're in as good a shape as they look.

http://www.facebook.com/groups/162124153883903/#!/media/set/?set=a.10150394457391519.351420.189680196518&type=1

Good looking stuff, unfortunately the range wouldn't work for me, I need one without the back piece as the range will be going on the island in my kitchen and I'm going to level the entire island down to where the bar-top is, roughly 40" or so.  Dishwasher wouldn't work either as I'm going all stainless to match FMC's fridge.  Much appreciated on the link though.  I might have use for some of the racks they said they still have.

[Townsend]

Good looking stuff, unfortunately the range wouldn't work for me, I need one without the back piece as the range will be going on the island in my kitchen and I'm going to level the entire island down to where the bar-top is, roughly 40" or so.  Dishwasher wouldn't work either as I'm going all stainless to match FMC's fridge.  Much appreciated on the link though.  I might have use for some of the racks they said they still have.

I forgot about the island thing.

Looking forward to seeing the changes.

[Gaspar]

Bush

At this point, no one really cares who he blames.  No one expects him to take a leadership role, not even his own party.

He's so consumed prancing around the country on his class warfare tour that people have basically stopped listening. 

All speech, no substance, expecting others to take the reigns and the blame.

[Townsend]

At this point, no one really cares who he blames.  No one expects him to take a leadership role, not even his own party.

He's so consumed prancing around the country on his class warfare tour that people have basically stopped listening. 

All speech, no substance, expecting others to take the reigns and the blame.

Got Fox running in the background there do ya?

[Gaspar]

Got Fox running in the background there do ya?

Provide any example to the contrary.