Tulsa metro population growth.

[TheArtist]

2018 metro population estimates released today.

Tulsa metro population, July 1, 2018:  993,797
2017:  991,610
2016:  989,256

one-year growth:  2,187
Prior Year growth: 2,354
one-year growth rate:  0.2%

July 1, 2010:  939,822
8-year growth:  53,975
8-year growth rate:  5.7%

Oh goodness.  I knew our city growth rate had been slowing down and even crossed over lately to being in decline.  But surprised to see that now even the metro growth rate has been slowing. 

My thought lately has been that Tulsa should be turning the corner with all the positive things that have been happening with the city.  The Gathering Place, downtown fleshing out and becoming more attractive, continued improvements around downtown including the Route 66 corridor, etc.  I would like to think that we would see some positive growth here soon with all of that.

I am like "What can we do to jumpstart growth in Tulsa again?" I think we really are a great and affordable place to live.  "Do we need to get the word out more?"  What will happen to us and our reputation if the metro and the city slip into stagnation or population decline?  Thats a tough negative publicity hole to dig yourself out of.  Are all our improvements 20 years too late?  Its likely going to be with the upcoming demographic trends that those areas/cities that will be winners will do well, while those that are not on the winning side will be even bigger losers.  Being a small, slow growing city is worrisome in that scenario.

[shavethewhales]

It does seem odd how slow things are to grow around here, despite the city apparently doing everything pretty much right lately. There are lots of cool things happening, and after my recent travels to other cities I always find myself glad to live in Tulsa where things are calm and easy-going. It seems like we do have some major employers moving in like Milo's and Amazon, but these are mostly low-level jobs and are nullified by other cuts and consolidations elsewhere. It seems like most of the country is at a turning point in industry and retail at the moment, and if you haven't made the mark you aren't going to get there anytime soon. Cities like Austin, New York, Atlanta, etc. will keep attracting more of everything while intermediate cities struggle.

Then again, perhaps we are on the cusp of turning the corner ourselves. Our downtown is truly starting to fill in. Gathering Place has put us on the map. There are a number of other transformative projects on the way like the west Tulsa redevelopment plan.

Things aren't necessarily bleak, but we have to keep our foot on the gas or we're going to slip. Fixing our education issues is the biggest issue right now. That's probably what is holding us back the most.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Oh goodness.  I knew our city growth rate had been slowing down and even crossed over lately to being in decline.  But surprised to see that now even the metro growth rate has been slowing. 

My thought lately has been that Tulsa should be turning the corner with all the positive things that have been happening with the city.  The Gathering Place, downtown fleshing out and becoming more attractive, continued improvements around downtown including the Route 66 corridor, etc.  I would like to think that we would see some positive growth here soon with all of that.

I am like "What can we do to jumpstart growth in Tulsa again?" I think we really are a great and affordable place to live.  "Do we need to get the word out more?"  What will happen to us and our reputation if the metro and the city slip into stagnation or population decline?  Thats a tough negative publicity hole to dig yourself out of.  Are all our improvements 20 years too late?  Its likely going to be with the upcoming demographic trends that those areas/cities that will be winners will do well, while those that are not on the winning side will be even bigger losers.  Being a small, slow growing city is worrisome in that scenario.

I am truly not attacking or criticizing you at all - your post just had the literal words that I am addressing...."What can we do to jumpstart growth in Tulsa again?"

To everyone - not The Artist (but you can read it too..);

The phrase points directly at what has been mentioned here in the past a few times - growth for growth's sake.   And how just unfocused "growth" really doesn't do us any good.  "Just Another Housing Addition" (JAHA) benefits an extremely limited group of people while creating increased costs to the majority with little to no real benefit for the whole area.  Little towns around us are growing like crazy - and that  has to be taking some level of affluence away from Tulsa proper and re-distributing it around the edges.  All of these towns/small cities are experiencing huge "growth pain" problems and big increases in costs and indebtedness (bonds) - their infrastructure is woefully unprepared.  Underfunded.  Over-utilized.  Under-maintained.  So is Tulsa's.

How about some studies and thought to doing some economic "infill" - don't even know what to call it...  But it isn't the real estate 'infill' of tearing down an existing building just to build a bigger/newer/flashier building.  It's about improving the overall space we already occupy.  Better jobs rather than just "more jobs".   I think Kaiser had a good idea about attracting higher skilled people (remote workers), but pointed it in the wrong direction - outward versus inward.  We lose too many higher skilled people - many more than will ever be attracted by that program.  We need a similar program to develop locals.  And yeah, I know about some of the places we have and they are great!  More would be good.  FabLab, several maker spaces, 36 North, Kitchen 66, etc - all good stuff!  Those are what will develop higher skill levels more than anything else.

Fix infrastructure using more robust methods/materials that will last longer with less ongoing disruption.  If it requires better materials/methods, it will require better trained people, raising the overall skill levels, and raising overall value of those increased skills.

Education - lot's of talk around here about universities...how about making ALL the education system better/stronger/more robust from K thru Graduate school.   Grow value as well as volume.

We have some really great recreational/entertainment opportunities - how about continuing these improvements without worrying about attracting others from outside - do these things for ourselves and then if others take note, see what a great life is available here, then they will come.  We see that phenomenon in all the "popular" cities like Austin, Portland, etc.  They had a propaganda effort, of course, but they really attracted people's attention with doing cool stuff that people related to and enjoy.

[Conan71]

2018 metro population estimates released today.

Tulsa metro population, July 1, 2018:  993,797
2017:  991,610
2016:  989,256

one-year growth:  2,187
Prior Year growth: 2,354
one-year growth rate:  0.2%

July 1, 2010:  939,822
8-year growth:  53,975
8-year growth rate:  5.7%

Growth is still consistently anemic, but hey, keep on building retail in a flat growth environment!

[patric]

Tulsa does have 1 million in population
https://www.tulsaworld.com/opinion/letters/letter-to-the-editor-tulsa-does-have-million-in-population/article_1701b1a1-f51f-5238-b814-333772c75123.html

[Hoss]

Tulsa does have 1 million in population
https://www.tulsaworld.com/opinion/letters/letter-to-the-editor-tulsa-does-have-million-in-population/article_1701b1a1-f51f-5238-b814-333772c75123.html

Well, sure.  Include Washington county which isn't in the MSA.  Either way it's close enough.

[SXSW]

Well, sure.  Include Washington county which isn't in the MSA.  Either way it's close enough.

I suspect Washington County will eventually be added to the MSA.  I mean if Pawnee County is part of the MSA so should Washington where there is actually a good amount of commuting between Tulsa and Bartlesville.  It's already part of the Tulsa CSA which also includes Muskogee County with a total population of 1,251,172.

It will be interesting to see if Payne County eventually gets absorbed into the CSA for either Tulsa or Oklahoma City.  It's right on the edge and could make a good case for either.  That would add another ~85k to either.  You could also make a case for Cherokee County to be part of the Tulsa CSA with key ties between Tulsa and Tahlequah.  Add those and you have a CSA of 1.4 million which would put us in between OKC and Memphis as the 46th largest CSA in the country.

Another interesting thing to watch is the Northwest Arkansas MSA which includes the three counties directly over the border in Arkansas.  It has consistently been one of the fastest growing metros in the country.  Will it eventually jump the border and pull in Adair County?  Why are they growing so much and we aren't just under 100 miles to the west?

[Oil Capital]

I suspect Washington County will eventually be added to the MSA.  I mean if Pawnee County is part of the MSA so should Washington where there is actually a good amount of commuting between Tulsa and Bartlesville.  It's already part of the Tulsa CSA which also includes Muskogee County with a total population of 1,251,172.

It will be interesting to see if Payne County eventually gets absorbed into the CSA for either Tulsa or Oklahoma City.  It's right on the edge and could make a good case for either.  That would add another ~85k to either.  You could also make a case for Cherokee County to be part of the Tulsa CSA with key ties between Tulsa and Tahlequah.  Add those and you have a CSA of 1.4 million which would put us in between OKC and Memphis as the 46th largest CSA in the country.

The Tulsa/Muskogee/Bartlesville CSA already includes Cherokee Country (Tallequah) and its 2018 estimated population is 1,162,677 (48th largest CSA).  https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

If Payne County's 82,000 were added to the CSA (unlikely), we'd be at 1,245,000,  44th largest CSA (between Harrisburg, PA and Buffalo, NY)

And, by the way, the OKC and Memphis CSAs are currently the 39th and 41st largest CSAs, respectively.

[SXSW]

Thanks OC, that's what you get when you trust Wikipedia..

My point still stands on why is the NW Arkansas MSA growing so fast and we aren't?  I know they have Wal-Mart and several other large companies HQ's, and the University of Arkansas.  Otherwise we are pretty similar but with a better urban core instead of multiple cities.  Don't get me wrong I like NWA, especially Fayetteville, just trying to fully understand what is driving their high growth so we can replicate that in Tulsa.

[TheArtist]

Thanks OC, that's what you get when you trust Wikipedia..

My point still stands on why is the NW Arkansas MSA growing so fast and we aren't?  I know they have Wal-Mart and several other large companies HQ's, and the University of Arkansas.  Otherwise we are pretty similar but with a better urban core instead of multiple cities.  Don't get me wrong I like NWA, especially Fayetteville, just trying to fully understand what is driving their high growth so we can replicate that in Tulsa.

Wal-Mart is of course a big deal for them, plus Tyson and a couple other big companies, and on top of that I can see two other things. 

Sometimes growth can spur more growth.  The growth spurred by Wal-Mart etc. was very visible in that small metro area.  That growth being so visible and apparent gets others to want to be part of the action.  It just rolls forward with a natural momentum, energy and buzz.  Another thing is that it appears so much is new, comfortable, and suburban which is an additional attraction to many people, plus the University area added a bit of "clubby fun" urban element.  Wasn't long ago that Dixon street trumped our downtown for the kind of people we find in our area of the country.

It was like the whole NWA area was a big, cool, suburbia with lots of visibly attractive, economic momentum.  Plus there are a lot of quaint, vacationey, areas around, nestled in wooded hills and valleys.

One other thing I noticed about NWA even from decades and decades ago, there was always a large entrepreneurial spirit.  I lived in Eureka Springs for a time and my parents still live there so visit the NWA area regularly. Every roadside had some little shop, thrift store, antique mall, whatsit doohickey maker, farmers market, roadside attraction, etc.  Much of it seemed hokey or small time, but the attitude permeated the culture up and down the demographics.  Heck its how I got my entrepreneurial spirit.  My parents had a little gift shop in Eureka Springs. We built a small bed and breakfast next to the house, then another, and another.  They started selling their items to other local gift shops, then some Hallmark stores, then other stores around the country, etc.  So many people in those small towns were working an angle to make a buck doing something on their own.

[DTowner]

I know they are not comparable to Tulsa, but both Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston metro areas added over 1 million people in the last decade.  That is serious growth.

[heironymouspasparagus]

And Paris is only about 2 million people... so why is it much more than "twice the draw" that Tulsa is....?

[heironymouspasparagus]

Wal-Mart is of course a big deal for them, plus Tyson and a couple other big companies, and on top of that I can see two other things. 

Sometimes growth can spur more growth.  The growth spurred by Wal-Mart etc. was very visible in that small metro area.  That growth being so visible and apparent gets others to want to be part of the action.  It just rolls forward with a natural momentum, energy and buzz.  Another thing is that it appears so much is new, comfortable, and suburban which is an additional attraction to many people, plus the University area added a bit of "clubby fun" urban element.  Wasn't long ago that Dixon street trumped our downtown for the kind of people we find in our area of the country.

It was like the whole NWA area was a big, cool, suburbia with lots of visibly attractive, economic momentum.  Plus there are a lot of quaint, vacationey, areas around, nestled in wooded hills and valleys.

One other thing I noticed about NWA even from decades and decades ago, there was always a large entrepreneurial spirit.  I lived in Eureka Springs for a time and my parents still live there so visit the NWA area regularly. Every roadside had some little shop, thrift store, antique mall, whatsit doohickey maker, farmers market, roadside attraction, etc.  Much of it seemed hokey or small time, but the attitude permeated the culture up and down the demographics.  Heck its how I got my entrepreneurial spirit.  My parents had a little gift shop in Eureka Springs. We built a small bed and breakfast next to the house, then another, and another.  They started selling their items to other local gift shops, then some Hallmark stores, then other stores around the country, etc.  So many people in those small towns were working an angle to make a buck doing something on their own.

Here is an interesting take on NWA.  They are doing a lot of stuff over there.  We have been looking at it as a serious place for possible "landing zone" in recent years.

http://www.nwacouncil.org/news/2017/3/23/analysis-nw-arkansas-to-make-top-100-in-2019

[SXSW]

I'm not debating that NWA is a great area just curious how their economic dynamics are so different.  They don't have oil and gas which obviously is still a big part of the Tulsa economy, for better or worse. 

[TheArtist]

I'm not debating that NWA is a great area just curious how their economic dynamics are so different.  They don't have oil and gas which obviously is still a big part of the Tulsa economy, for better or worse. 

I would guess that Oil and gas is at best a stagnant industry in Tulsa, following a period of huge losses in that industry here.  Wal-Mart shouldn't be thought of as just one business, basically if you are a company that wants to do business with Wal-Mart you have to have a presence in NWA.  There are over 1,400 companies, including many Fortune 500 ones, that have offices there just so they can be near Wal-Mart.  As one of the largest companies on earth a lot of wealth and amenities have settled in the area. The Crystal Bridges Museum and its art probably cost more than our Gathering Place. The company led the way in changing zoning laws in the area to get more urban development because they knew their recruits wanted that lifestyle along with the arts and other amenities. Arvest Bank, which is the largest in Arkansas is essentially a Wal-Mart family operation. etc. etc. I am willing to bet Wal-Mart and its vendors in Bentonville employ more people than all the oil and gas related companies in Tulsa.