Tulsa metro population growth.

[ComeOnBenjals]

Nice!  Not sure what being 1 million plus gives you in real life, but it's a good point to reach!

[LandArchPoke]

Nice!  Not sure what being 1 million plus gives you in real life, but it's a good point to reach!

It's a dumb metric that unfortunately it is used in some site selection criteria. That if the metro is under 1 million then supposedly you can't support certain businesses and retailers.

What's even more dumb about this, I know Oil Capital loves this, but when you look at the Tulsa area because we have some abnormal commuting patterns, many counties that should be included in our MSA are not.

Washington, Mayes, and Muskogee County should be in the immediate MSA. If they were our MSA would have been over a million a decade ago. We also tend to get slighted in that we are supposedly 300,000 to 400,000 less than the OKC MSA. When you include those three counties our MSA that is 250,000. The only reason those counties are not included in the MSA is because the commuting patterns, with Mid America in Mayes and employers like Phillips in Bartlesville they have pretty strong employment centers for smaller counties which is a bit abnormal. However, for a retailer, if they opened a store in Tulsa where do you think someone in those counties will drive to in order to consume services they want? Does anyone really think those area's aren't in the Tulsa MSA? I bet most people have no idea those aren't included. (Comparing 2015 mid census data for all this since 2020 I don't see that there is county level data yet)

That doesn't include Cherokee County which is another 50,000 ish, let alone the Grand Lake area which is another 125,000 to 150,000.

The combined statistical area - CSA (which isn't used much, unlike the MSA) has been over 1.25 million for over five years. The official Tulsa CSA does include Mayes, Washington, Muskogee, and Cherokee.

Given that OKC sprawls so much, there is almost no difference in their MSA and CSA and it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. The only additional county in OKC's CSA is Pottawatomie County (Shawnee) and takes the OKC metro from about 1.25 to 1.4 million.

Basically, it's a lot of data with absolutely zero common sense equated to it. Unfortunately it is used in real life in some areas of site selection and economic development and people on the coasts that have no familiarity with the region. Hopefully whenever they redefine the MSA's after this census one or all of those counties will finally get grouped into the Tulsa MSA as they should be which will push the MSA number well beyond just the 1 million mark.    

[Oil Capital]

It's a dumb metric that unfortunately it is used in some site selection criteria. That if the metro is under 1 million then supposedly you can't support certain businesses and retailers.

What's even more dumb about this, I know Oil Capital loves this, but when you look at the Tulsa area because we have some abnormal commuting patterns, many counties that should be included in our MSA are not. The only reason those counties are not included in the MSA is because the commuting patterns, with Mid America in Mayes and employers like Phillips in Bartlesville they have pretty strong employment centers for smaller counties which is a bit abnormal. However, for a retailer, if they opened a store in Tulsa where do you think someone in those counties will drive to in order to consume services they want? Does anyone really think those area's aren't in the Tulsa MSA? I bet most people have no idea those aren't included. (Comparing 2015 mid census data for all this since 2020 I don't see that there is county level data yet)

Washington, Mayes, and Muskogee County should be in the immediate MSA. If they were our MSA would have been over a million a decade ago.

LOL  You're right, I love your posts.  There is in fact nothing particularly abnormal about Tulsa commuting patterns, and there is no reason to think that Washington, Mayes or Muskogee Counties should be in the Tulsa MSA.  As you acknowledged, MSAs are defined by commuting patterns and economic integration. If and when those counties have sufficient interchange with the Tulsa MSA, they will become part of the Tulsa MSA.  I'm confident retailers are aware of Combined Statistical Area stats and take them into consideration when they are relevant to their business.  Apparently you wish that MSAs meant something they do not mean and measure something they are not intended to measure.  FWIW, Mayes Counties economic interface with Tulsa is so small they are not even in the Combined Statistical Area.

[Oil Capital]

That doesn't include Cherokee County which is another 50,000 ish, let alone the Grand Lake area which is another 125,000 to 150,000.     

LOL Or Enid.  Or Joplin.  Or Stillwater.   Or Springfield.  All for good reason.

[Oil Capital]

The combined statistical area - CSA (which isn't used much, unlike the MSA) has been over 1.25 million for over five years. The official Tulsa CSA does include Mayes, Washington, Muskogee, and Cherokee.

No.  It has not, and no, it does not.  The population of the Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville Combined Statistical Area, per the just-released 2020 estimate, was 1,126,243, as of July 1, 2020.  The official Tulsa CSA (the Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville Combined Statistical Area) includes Washington and Muskogee Counties in addition to the counties included in the Tulsa MSA.  The CSA does not include Mayes or Cherokee Counties.

[Oil Capital]

Given that OKC sprawls so much, there is almost no difference in their MSA and CSA and it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. The only additional county in OKC's CSA is Pottawatomie County (Shawnee) and takes the OKC metro from about 1.25 to 1.4 million.
 

The fact that the OKC CSA only has one more county than its MSA has nothing to do with OKC's sprawl or lack thereof. One of the few facts you got correct is that OKC's CSA only adds one county (Pottawatomie).  But you got the numbers completely wrong.  The addition of Pottawatomie County takes the OKC metro from about 1.4 million to about 1.5 million (To be precise, 1,425,375 to 1,498,373).

Since you brought up sprawl, here are some interesting facts:   The Tulsa-Broken Arrow-Owasso Metropolitan statistical area is comprised of 6,269.3 square miles; population density: 179.64/square mile.  The Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area covers 6,359 square miles; population density: 224.15/square mile.

FWIW, here are the comparative numbers and a list of the counties:

OKC MSA:  1,425,375
Tulsa MSA: 1,006,411


OKC-Shawnee CSA:                     1,498,373  (72,998 above the MSA)
Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville CSA: 1,126,243  (119,832 above the MSA)

OKC MSA Component Counties:  
Canadian
Cleveland
Grady
Lincoln
Logan
McClain
Oklahoma

Tulsa MSA Component Counties:
Creek
Okmulgee
Osage
Pawnee
Rogers
Tulsa
Wagoner

OKC CSA Components:
MSA Counties +
Pottawatomie County

Tulsa CSA Components:
MSA Counties +
Washington County
Muskogee County

[LandArchPoke]

LOL Or Enid.  Or Joplin.  Or Stillwater.   Or Springfield.  All for good reason.

So Stillwater has no connection to Tulsa right? For the others, yeah - it's the same thing lol good grief you're so dramatic.

Apparently you wish that MSAs meant something they do not mean and measure something they are not intended to measure.

When did I say that? The entire discussion is about data and critical thinking skills. The latter is something you could desperately use. If anything I've said how dumb I think most of these metrics are to use to analyze a region.

You really think Muskogee, Bartlesville, Pryor aren't as much of a 'suburb' as Guthrie, El Reno, and Chickasha? Please.

What's different about those three in the Tulsa area versus OKC? The Tulsa outlying areas are more self containing smaller towns than you see in a lot of other areas. Thus, the commuting patterns - which frankly is the dumbest criteria to designate a metro area - is very different from the OKC area.

The fact that the OKC CSA only has one more county than its MSA has nothing to do with OKC's sprawl or lack thereof. One of the few facts you got correct is that OKC's CSA only adds one county (Pottawatomie).  But you got the numbers completely wrong.  The addition of Pottawatomie County takes the OKC metro from about 1.4 million to about 1.5 million (To be precise, 1,425,375 to 1,498,373).

Since you brought up sprawl, here are some interesting facts:   The Tulsa-Broken Arrow-Owasso Metropolitan statistical area is comprised of 6,269.3 square miles; population density: 179.64/square mile.  The Oklahoma City Metropolitan Statistical Area covers 6,359 square miles; population density: 224.15/square mile.

Again, showing your lack of critical thinking skills here - maybe you should learn how to measure as well. Given you still think Wichita is closer in mileage as the bird fly's to KC than Tulsa. Hint, it's still not.

Since this is such a challenge for you I'll help you out a bit here. DT Tulsa to Bartlesville as the bird flys is 40 miles. DT Tulsa to Muskogee is 45 miles. DT Tulsa to Pryor is 40 miles.

Now, DT OKC to Guthrie is 30 miles. DT OKC to Chickasha is 40 miles. DT OKC to Shawnee is 35 miles. DT OKC to Purcell is 35 miles.  

Just for reference too, DT OKC to Stillwater is 50 miles and DT Tulsa to Stillwater is a little under 60 miles.

So tell me, how is is that all those cities are relevant to be included in the MSA (outside of Shawnee) but those are all excluded from the Tulsa MSA and Pryor/Mayes County is excluded from the CSA?

Also, your land area reference is the most hilarious thing - again, critical thinking skills - tell me ole wise one, how many square miles is Osage County? How populated is it? Where is that density of population too? Hint, it's almost all within a few miles of DT Tulsa. Again, that's why most of these classifications are SOOO dumb, because Osage County, where the vast majority of it is ranch land and less relevant and further away from Tulsa than even Stillwater is included in our MSA. The western and northwestern portions of Osage County are 70 miles from DT Tulsa. Osage County is 2,304 square miles, nearly 40% of the land area of the Tulsa MSA.  

So yes, OKC is a far more sprawling metro area than Tulsa. You just have to have some common sense to understand that. Data with no critical thinking involved is useless, and far too common in this world.

Also, wise one - if there's an H&M some teenager in Bartlesville wants to shop in person, where do they go? I guess they just stay home since they aren't in the MSA and there's no correlation with Tulsa according to you. Same with a concert for a band someone really wants to see that plays at the BOK or Cain's. I guess they just stay home in Pryor, they aren't in the MSA right? Commuting patterns into the central 'county' mean s**t when it comes to how interconnected areas actually are - hints why it's dumb and just an ounce of critical thinking makes that pretty clear. It would make more sense to classify metros by zip codes, census blocks, or something else than it does by county (Osage County for example). The criteria the census uses to derive interconnectedness is also flawed, it's not hard to see that.

[Red Arrow]

I live in Bixby but worked at Mid America Industrial Park (Pryor) for several years about 20 years ago.  Traffic on 412 westbound in the AM and eastbound in the PM was not insignificant.  It wasn't like 169 but it was busy.

[LandArchPoke]

I live in Bixby but worked at Mid America Industrial Park (Pryor) for several years about 20 years ago.  Traffic on 412 westbound in the AM and eastbound in the PM was not insignificant.  It wasn't like 169 but it was busy.

Bingo, you just made the point very clear.

(Page 6: https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/GARM/Ch13GARM.pdf). In order for the county to qualify to be grouped into an MSA, 15% has to commute into the central county (Tulsa County).

Oil Capital - How is that the best and only way to derive what should be defined as part of a metro? You really stand behind that? Mid America has a lot of it's work force coming from Tulsa and other surrounding counties. Same with Bartlesville, same with Muskogee. When you look at a lot of other metro areas you can't say the same thing, there's usually almost no 'reverse' commuting from the central areas out like that. Hints the abnormal commuting patterns of the Tulsa area (when comparing generally similar sized metros - not something like Dallas where there's tons of reverse commuting from say Dallas to Collin, Denton, etc.). What major employment centers are there in Chickasha or Guthrie that people from OKC might drive out to there for work? Certainly not to the scale that you have with employers like Phillips, Google, etc. I have known many people who lived in Owasso and commuted to Bartlesville everyday because they wanted to be a bit closer to the city. I've also known had several friends who got job offers out of OSU and lived in Bartlesville and came to Tulsa every weekend to go out to bars and socialize. Yet, you're saying that's somehow not worthwhile to consider as interrelated areas and to be included in the Tulsa MSA. By the census definition of a metro area that wouldn't count as 'interconnected' and that's complete crap and you know it. Bartlesville, Muskogee, Pryor area all as much a part of the immediate MSA as Guthrie, Chickasha, and El Reno. If you only take data for face value like you do with no critical thinking behind it's not a good thing.

There's also a large portion of professors and workers for OSU that commute from Tulsa to Stillwater (way more than from OKC to Stillwater), but very minimal the other way around from Stillwater to Tulsa. My program at OSU of the 15 of us who finished 2 drove from Tulsa everyday for classes. When we started of the 30ish who entered the program 4 drove from Tulsa everyday and 1 drove from Edmond. I've seen economic development materials out of OKC that group Stillwater into their 'metro area' when marketing the city and Stillwater is far more connected to Tulsa than OKC. This is my beef with many in the chamber and economic development group here in the past that can't seem to open their eyes and at least address these types of things when marketing the city and just now pretend like the area is over a million people when in reality the immediate Tulsa area has been well over a million for a while now. They can't change Census designations but they can surely change how they market the city to the outside world. There's no reason to put ourselves into a box because our competition surely doesn't. 

[Oil Capital]

Bingo, you just made the point very clear.

(Page 6: https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/GARM/Ch13GARM.pdf). In order for the county to qualify to be grouped into an MSA, 15% has to commute into the central county (Tulsa County).

Oil Capital - How is that the best and only way to derive what should be defined as part of a metro? You really stand behind that? Mid America has a lot of it's work force coming from Tulsa and other surrounding counties. Same with Bartlesville, same with Muskogee. When you look at a lot of other metro areas you can't say the same thing, there's usually almost no 'reverse' commuting from the central areas out like that. Hints the abnormal commuting patterns of the Tulsa area (when comparing generally similar sized metros - not something like Dallas where there's tons of reverse commuting from say Dallas to Collin, Denton, etc.). What major employment centers are there in Chickasha or Guthrie that people from OKC might drive out to there for work? Certainly not to the scale that you have with employers like Phillips, Google, etc. I have known many people who lived in Owasso and commuted to Bartlesville everyday because they wanted to be a bit closer to the city. I've also known had several friends who got job offers out of OSU and lived in Bartlesville and came to Tulsa every weekend to go out to bars and socialize. Yet, you're saying that's somehow not worthwhile to consider as interrelated areas and to be included in the Tulsa MSA. By the census definition of a metro area that wouldn't count as 'interconnected' and that's complete crap and you know it. Bartlesville, Muskogee, Pryor area all as much a part of the immediate MSA as Guthrie, Chickasha, and El Reno. If you only take data for face value like you do with no critical thinking behind it's not a good thing.

There's also a large portion of professors and workers for OSU that commute from Tulsa to Stillwater (way more than from OKC to Stillwater), but very minimal the other way around from Stillwater to Tulsa. My program at OSU of the 15 of us who finished 2 drove from Tulsa everyday for classes. When we started of the 30ish who entered the program 4 drove from Tulsa everyday and 1 drove from Edmond. I've seen economic development materials out of OKC that group Stillwater into their 'metro area' when marketing the city and Stillwater is far more connected to Tulsa than OKC. This is my beef with many in the chamber and economic development group here in the past that can't seem to open their eyes and at least address these types of things when marketing the city and just now pretend like the area is over a million people when in reality the immediate Tulsa area has been well over a million for a while now. They can't change Census designations but they can surely change how they market the city to the outside world. There's no reason to put ourselves into a box because our competition surely doesn't. 

Take your arguments with the Census' definitions up with the Cenus Bureau.  You seem to want to talk about something more like a retail trade area; something more like the Ranally City Rating system and the information in the Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide. 

I'm not going to respond to each of your lies and misstatements.  I'm only going to say that MSAs and CSAs are determined based on commuting data, not on distance, and not on the anecdotal observations of internet posters. The 2020 data will be analyzed and perhaps some of what you hope and dream of will come true.  Perhaps not.  As of now, Mayes, Washington and Muskogee Counties do not meet the criteria for economic and social interaction with Tulsa. Logan, Canadian, and Grady Counites meet the criteria with regard to Okahoma City.  I'm sorry about that, but these are facts.    FWIW, here is the criteria for inclusion of an outlying county in a Metropolitan Statistical Area: 

A county qualifies as an outlying county of a CBSA if it meets the following commuting requirements: (a) At least 25 percent of the workers living in the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA; or (b) At least 25 percent of the employment in the county is accounted for by workers who reside in the central county or counties of the CBSA. A county may be included in only one CBSA. If a county qualifies as a central county of one CBSA and as outlying in another, it falls within the CBSA in which it is a central county. A county that qualifies as outlying to multiple CBSAs falls within the CBSA with which it has the strongest commuting tie, as measured by either 3(a) or 3(b) above. The counties included in a CBSA must be contiguous; if a county is not contiguous with other counties in the CBSA, it will not fall within the CBSA.

[LandArchPoke]

I'm not going to respond to each of your lies and misstatements.  

HA! You are hilarious. Cat got your tongue huh? Enlighten everyone with your superior wisdom and made up 'facts' why won't you?

Take your arguments with the Census' definitions up with the Cenus Bureau.  You seem to want to talk about something more like a retail trade area; something more like the Ranally City Rating system and the information in the Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide.  

Yes, let me get right on that to petition the Census because that's exactly the point of this discussion.

Just deflecting from the topic because you have no ground to stand on yet again. By the way, have you ever figured out how to measure distance yet - can you tell me how Wichita is closer to Kansas City than Tulsa yet? Take your pick, can be driving distance or as the bird flies. Is that one of your so called facts you speak of? I'm happy to show you how Google Maps works, it's really nifty - it's as big of a lie as I am, just guessing. When you're wrong and can't back up what you're saying in reality, saying the other person is a 'lie' doesn't make you right, I know that's super popular to do in recent years. 

[DTowner]

I don't know what counties should or should not be in Tulsa's or OKC's MSA, but one thing that is clear is that OKC is and has been growing at a much higher rate than Tulsa for the past decade.  Tulsa's leader can celebrate topping 1 million all they want, but our slower growth should be the trend keeping them up nights.

[shavethewhales]

^OKC is a capital city, already had a population edge, has the state's leading health centers and medical school, is closer to both major state schools and also has several other major 4-year universities (OKCU, UCO, SNU, Oklahoma Christian...), and so forth. They have so many advantages, it would be pretty wild if they WEREN'T growing faster than us. Tulsa doesn't need to grow massively into a giant metropolis anyway, we just don't want to fall farther behind and miss out on opportunities to enhance the city.

I'm glad we made it over the 1 million mark just so we don't get screened out of various radars when businesses/events are searching for places to do things.

PS: you guys need to be less dramatic.

[DTowner]

^OKC is a capital city, already had a population edge, has the state's leading health centers and medical school, is closer to both major state schools and also has several other major 4-year universities (OKCU, UCO, SNU, Oklahoma Christian...), and so forth. They have so many advantages, it would be pretty wild if they WEREN'T growing faster than us. Tulsa doesn't need to grow massively into a giant metropolis anyway, we just don't want to fall farther behind and miss out on opportunities to enhance the city.

I get that OKC has certain built in advantages, but I disagree it is to be expected that OKC will grow faster than Tulsa.  We think Tulsa is a wonderful place to work and live and we think companies should move here, but we are in second place and fading within our own state.  Population growth is a vote of confidence by people of where they think is a great place to live and have opportunity to succeed.  To copy a phrase, "if you ain't growing, you're dying."   Right now, we are barely growing and that is not encouraging.

[Jake]

Being from a Rust Belt City, it's wild to see people label 7% growth as "barely growing."