Tonopah Solar Power

[heironymouspasparagus]

I don't think that's an accurate assessment of the PV industry.

What is your assessment?  I'm not arguing the point - yet - but am curious how people view the market.  One question - are prices getting to the point where you would consider installing a system of some sort?  Could be small backup just to keep the furnace and refrigerator going during power outage, up to full house with grid feedback of extra power....

Gas furnace could be kept active with a very modest inexpensive system.  Couple of cells, couple of high capacity batteries, a good inverter and charge controller for a couple thousand dollars - well maybe $3,000?  Versus $1,000 generator PLUS $40 per day in gasoline and all those noxious fumes.


Two markets have been discussed here lately - cell manufacture and power generation; I base my views on Solyndra in part due to the fact of radical drop in prices due to mature technology, which is leading to much smaller margins.  (Prices from over $100 per watt ~30 years ago to about $1.75 per watt today.)  Commodotization of the product (is that a word?) such that essentially equal price/quality/performance is available from a variety of sources.  Much higher barriers to entry to the business due to the smaller margins, rather than development costs (Solyndra).  Gonna be difficult for a cell manufacturer to get in at this late date.  

Tonapah is a "power plant" play.  Using other peoples cells.  This may well be a good deal - much as the early windmill farms.  And if it is ok to spend billions subsidizing nuke, then Tonapah is certainly a valid place to put some money.  Better place, in fact.

There is a huge market out there waiting manufacturing development in some of the new film technologies, and in higher efficiency devices.  May be able to develop some niches there.  But China is moving very fast on this.

[Conan71]

What is your assessment?  I'm not arguing the point - yet - but am curious how people view the market.  One question - are prices getting to the point where you would consider installing a system of some sort?  Could be small backup just to keep the furnace and refrigerator going during power outage, up to full house with grid feedback of extra power....

Gas furnace could be kept active with a very modest inexpensive system.  Couple of cells, couple of high capacity batteries, a good inverter and charge controller for a couple thousand dollars.  Versus $1,000 generator PLUS $40 per day in gasoline.


Two markets have been discussed here lately - cell manufacture and power generation; I base my views on Solyndra in part due to the fact of radical drop in prices due to mature technology, which is leading to much smaller margins.  (Prices from over $100 per watt ~30 years ago to about $1.75 per watt today.)  Commodotization of the product (is that a word?) such that essentially equal price/quality/performance is available from a variety of sources.  Much higher barriers to entry to the business due to the smaller margins, rather than development costs (Solyndra).  Gonna be difficult for a cell manufacturer to get in at this late date. 

Tonapah is a "power plant" play.  Using other peoples cells.  This may well be a good deal - much as the early windmill farms.  And if it is ok to spend billions subsidizing nuke, then Tonapah is certainly a valid place to put some money.  Better place, in fact.

There is a huge market out there waiting manufacturing development in some of the new film technologies, and in higher efficiency devices.  May be able to develop some niches there.  But China is moving very fast on this.

There's an interesting dichotomy here.  Perhaps it's time to identify which direction makes more sense to develop solar for America:

1) encourage individual "power plants" with emphasis on homeowner and commercial users

2) large solar farms to provide energy to many users.

I suspect the economics will eventually favor solar farms.  There's too many shylocks wanting to cash in on new technologies, especially when the government holds out attractive incentives for homeowner installations.  You get over-eager salesmen over-selling benefits of a system which will be poorly installed and which will likely fail not long after the warranty period.  

As with any alternative form of energy, the government needs to be honest in evaluating the true value of each alternative in the marketplace.  Based on current production capabilities, there's supposedly at least 200 years supply (depending on who you talk to in the industry) of petroleum under North America and off our shores.  When you have those sort of reserves which are reasonably easy to retrieve, you can make great industrial gains in improving fuel efficiency and that's generally less expensive than using fossil fuels to make synthetic fuels like ethanol or bio-diesel.  

Creating mass hysteria over the questionable science of global warming er climate change doesn't necessarily create a real value in alternative energy.

[Red Arrow]

Gas furnace could be kept active with a very modest inexpensive system.  Couple of cells, couple of high capacity batteries, a good inverter and charge controller for a couple thousand dollars - well maybe $3,000?  Versus $1,000 generator PLUS $40 per day in gasoline and all those noxious fumes.

At $3000, you are approaching a whole house generator running on natural gas.  Since a small generator ruined a TV a few years ago, I wouldn't trust a big box store emergency generator to run our computer controlled furnace and A/C.  We also have a water well so the inverter would need to be capable of motor start currents.  I think our pump is 3/4 HP but I will need to look up the papers to be sure. I know it is more than 1/2 HP.  I did just check our furnace requirements, 12A at 115V.  I don't know the running current but starting the fans probably runs the current requirement up some.  It's a York, about 6 yrs old.  If I'm going to install emergency backup, I want it to run the A/C in the summer too for my 84 yr old mom. The outside unit is 208-230V 1 PH 60Hz.  The compressor is 16.7 RLA - 82 LRA, the fan is 1.5 FLA - 1/4 HP.  Heiron, I'm not familiar with RLA and LRA but they look like running and starting currents.  Correct?   16.7A and 220V is 3674VA or approx the same watts ignoring power factor and possibly a few other things I forget. Last summer, our AC ran almost continuously.  3674 W at 1.75 $/W is getting expensive.

[heironymouspasparagus]

There's an interesting dichotomy here.  Perhaps it's time to identify which direction makes more sense to develop solar for America:

1) encourage individual "power plants" with emphasis on homeowner and commercial users

2) large solar farms to provide energy to many users.

I suspect the economics will eventually favor solar farms.  There's too many shylocks wanting to cash in on new technologies, especially when the government holds out attractive incentives for homeowner installations.  You get over-eager salesmen over-selling benefits of a system which will be poorly installed and which will likely fail not long after the warranty period.  

As with any alternative form of energy, the government needs to be honest in evaluating the true value of each alternative in the marketplace.  Based on current production capabilities, there's supposedly at least 200 years supply (depending on who you talk to in the industry) of petroleum under North America and off our shores.  When you have those sort of reserves which are reasonably easy to retrieve, you can make great industrial gains in improving fuel efficiency and that's generally less expensive than using fossil fuels to make synthetic fuels like ethanol or bio-diesel.  

Creating mass hysteria over the questionable science of global warming er climate change doesn't necessarily create a real value in alternative energy.

Both directions should be pursued.  Both have a place.  

I have a friend on Long Island, NY who makes a living installing solar systems for people.  Not a great living, but it satisfies the needs of his lifestyle.  Has been doing this for about 15 years.  Homeowner systems are just now BARELY starting to make sense there - as they do in CA.  Oklahoma??  I suspect it will be a LONG time, and with the past as experience, big oil will manipulate pricing to disrupt widespread competition.  We are in an enviable position - plenty of energy for a long, long time.  The only two questions are the price and what effect it has on the environment.  

No, I am not talking about climate change - I am talking about the effects that people have been distracted from by all the BS hype about climate change.  The destruction of ground water is probably the single biggest threat we face.  And not only is it gonna happen - it has already been happening for a long time.

There is a huge problem lurking in the weeds with the current PV solar cell technology that hopefully may be mitigated by some of the new film technology.  It is the manufacture of the semiconductors themselves.  It is the same process used in the "Intel Inside" your computer uses and it is vile and nasty - using extremely toxic chemicals that are not easily dealt with properly.  It is a battle the semiconductor industry has battled since the first transistor was made.  And it ain't gonna go away!

Wind power doesn't have all that baggage...at least not as much, so it will be much better if the PV films can't be 'cleaned up'.

Using solar collectors to gather heat is a great way to concentrate energy - not as much as oil, but light years ahead of ethanol from corn.  

Making much better use of the technology we already have would be a great way to go, too.  I propose that NO new commercial building in the country can be made without using ground coil heat pump equipment.  That would lead to an immediate 50 - 70% (or more) reduction in energy costs, with all the attending upstream benefits.  Reduced peak load on the grid.  No massive capital expenditures required for new plants.  Don't need new nukes!  Lowered emissions.  Lots of good things.

And since electric motors are the single largest users of energy in this country, require all new electric motors to be controlled by a variable frequency drive.  Immediate 85- 95% efficiency compared to about 40% for non drive units.  That is a 100% improvement!  Same benefits.

And third, since we lose about 30% of the total power generated in losses just moving electricity around on the grid, require every grid to add enough conductors to reduce that to under 10%.  Why throw away 1/3 (and more in some areas!) of the electricity generated just to shove it down a wire?  (Bet most of us didn't realize how much was thrown away this way.)

[Red Arrow]

And third, since we lose about 30% of the total power generated in losses just moving electricity around on the grid, require every grid to add enough conductors to reduce that to under 10%.  Why throw away 1/3 (and more in some areas!) of the electricity generated just to shove it down a wire?  (Bet most of us didn't realize how much was thrown away this way.)

It's bad enough at high voltage.  Horrible at 115V.  Dad told me a long time ago that there is still a significant amount of rural electric at relatively low voltage.  It's been a long time since I took a power distribution and motors class at TU with Dr. Stratton but I remember some of the basics.  Don't forget that a coal or gas fired electric plant will be lucky to be 40% thermally efficient so you are losing about 60% of the energy just to generate the electric before it goes anywhere.

[heironymouspasparagus]

At $3000, you are approaching a whole house generator running on natural gas.  Since a small generator ruined a TV a few years ago, I wouldn't trust a big box store emergency generator to run our computer controlled furnace and A/C.  We also have a water well so the inverter would need to be capable of motor start currents.  I think our pump is 3/4 HP but I will need to look up the papers to be sure. I know it is more than 1/2 HP.  I did just check our furnace requirements, 12A at 115V.  I don't know the running current but starting the fans probably runs the current requirement up some.  It's a York, about 6 yrs old.  If I'm going to install emergency backup, I want it to run the A/C in the summer too for my 84 yr old mom. The outside unit is 208-230V 1 PH 60Hz.  The compressor is 16.7 RLA - 82 LRA, the fan is 1.5 FLA - 1/4 HP.  Heiron, I'm not familiar with RLA and LRA but they look like running and starting currents.  Correct?   16.7A and 220V is 3674VA or approx the same watts ignoring power factor and possibly a few other things I forget. Last summer, our AC ran almost continuously.  3674 W at 1.75 $/W is getting expensive.

Gasoline has about 115,000 btu/gal, so need about 8 gallons at 100% efficiency to get 1 million BTU.  Figure a gas generator is only about 30% efficient you spend about 24 gallons to get that 1 million.  At $3 per gallon.  $75.

Natural gas is costing about $3.60 per million btu.  Same efficiency, so 3 times that is about $12.00.  Heck of a bargain compared to gasoline.  I love natural gas.  The only better way for heating a house is to use an earth coil heat pump.


You have to have a true sine wave inverter - no wiggle room on that.  An 1800 watt Xantrex is about $1,000.  That would cover the pump for sure, plus the gas furnace.  Fridge might be dicey if try to start it when others are running.  3,000 watt would handle all at once and would likely run way under capacity, which is what you want. I plan to use at least a 3kw, but I overdo.  3 grand gets you 3k.  

48 volts dc system will get you much smaller wires, easier to deal with.  Tougher to put together.

http://www.invertersrus.com/prosine1800.html


The smell of fresh, hot, homemade bread is wafting through the house and making me crazy!  Must have some NOW.  With butter and honey!!

[heironymouspasparagus]

It's bad enough at high voltage.  Horrible at 115V.  Dad told me a long time ago that there is still a significant amount of rural electric at relatively low voltage.  It's been a long time since I took a power distribution and motors class at TU with Dr. Stratton but I remember some of the basics.  Don't forget that a coal or gas fired electric plant will be lucky to be 40% thermally efficient so you are losing about 60% of the energy just to generate the electric before it goes anywhere.

Absolutely!  40% is optimistic at the generation point.  Figure in the 30% loss on the wires, and you end up getting to use about 12% of the energy that came out of burning the oil, coal, or natural gas.

Yep,....  12%.  Sucks big time.

Makes a 17% efficient solar cell look pretty good.

Dr. Stratton - my favorite advisor.  Great guy!

[Red Arrow]

You have to have a true sine wave inverter - no wiggle room on that.  An 1800 watt Xantrex is about $1,000.  That would cover the pump for sure, plus the gas furnace.  Fridge might be dicey if try to start it when others are running.  3,000 watt would handle all at once and would likely run way under capacity, which is what you want. I plan to use at least a 3kw, but I overdo.  3 grand gets you 3k.  

48 volts dc system will get you much smaller wires, easier to deal with.  Tougher to put together.

http://www.invertersrus.com/prosine1800.html

The inverters at the link are 10 to 15 VDC input.  They must have some big cables on the input side to get 1800W continuous, 2900W Peak.  I don't think that will run the A/C.

I forgot about the fridge. We also have a deep freeze in the garage. 

3 grand / 3KW ?  What happened to $1.75/W ?

Our power entry is at one end of the house, the furnace etc at the other.  The cost of installation of pretty much anything except whole house power may run the cost up to whole house power.  I need to check on recent prices of permanent installation generators.  My uncle (deceased a few years now and excellent EE) put whole house backup on his place in FL for my aunt.  I vaguely remember something like 22KW and $4500.  No muss, no fuss, and the lights don't go out in the reading room. 

[heironymouspasparagus]

I did just check our furnace requirements, 12A at 115V.  I don't know the running current but starting the fans probably runs the current requirement up some.  It's a York, about 6 yrs old. 

If I'm going to install emergency backup, I want it to run the A/C in the summer too for my 84 yr old mom. The outside unit is 208-230V 1 PH 60Hz.  The compressor is 16.7 RLA - 82 LRA, the fan is 1.5 FLA - 1/4 HP.  Heiron, I'm not familiar with RLA and LRA but they look like running and starting currents.  Correct?   16.7A and 220V is 3674VA or approx the same watts ignoring power factor and possibly a few other things I forget. Last summer, our AC ran almost continuously.  3674 W at 1.75 $/W is getting expensive.

Man, you are covering a ton of information.  This may take pages to talk about correctly.

York is pretty good stuff - at least I like it a lot.  12 A at 115v?  I would have expected 240vac.  Furnace really only should be running a couple of fans depending on efficiency of unit.  90% plus will have an exhaust fan that adds a half amp or so.  The main blower should only draw about 2 amps at 240.  Oh,...you said 1.5 amps for fan.  Double at 115.  Wow.  115v??  Seems strange.  Got a model number?  (6 times that at startup without a variable frequency drive).  

RLA is run load amps - compressor number - an average - will vary some with the load (amount of heat being taken out at any given time at the outdoor temperature at the time.)  Kind of like pushing a chain - hotter outside causes greater heat loss, which gives larger heat load, which means hotter condenser (outside unit) temperature, which means bigger load on compressor and fan.

LRA is locked rotor amps - maximum load ever - usually during catastrophic failure of the compressor.  Actually, it can be reached at start up, when compressor and fan are started.  Jumps up high for very short time, then back to RLA.  Long answer to say yes.  Start and run.  Sounds like a 5 ton unit.

$1.75 per W???  Huh?  PSO runs about 9 cents per kw hour.  Run an hour - should be about 30 cents (quick calc in my head).

In theory... if the unit is properly sized, it should run full time at max load for the 'best operating point' efficiency.  If it cycled very much, it means you have oversized unit.  If it runs full time and cannot hold temperature, you have undersized unit.  A/C is also typically designed/sized for approx a 20 degree differential.  Since we are averaged at about 95 degrees outside, that means it should be able to hold to 75.  At 110 outside, that means you are doing great if it holds to 80.  If you were keeping house at 72 degrees in 110 degree, then you are probably oversized.

Gonna need lots of solar cells, batteries and a 5 or 6 kw inverter.  Way too expensive without doing a complete changeover - get a grid tied inverter, with switchgear.  You can sell back to PSO for about 1 penny per kw hour... don't know the real number, but it ain't much.

[heironymouspasparagus]

The inverters at the link are 10 to 15 VDC input.  They must have some big cables on the input side to get 1800W continuous, 2900W Peak.  I don't think that will run the A/C.

I forgot about the fridge. We also have a deep freeze in the garage. 

3 grand / 3KW ?  What happened to $1.75/W ?

Our power entry is at one end of the house, the furnace etc at the other.  The cost of installation of pretty much anything except whole house power may run the cost up to whole house power.  I need to check on recent prices of permanent installation generators.  My uncle (deceased a few years now and excellent EE) put whole house backup on his place in FL for my aunt.  I vaguely remember something like 22KW and $4500.  No muss, no fuss, and the lights don't go out in the reading room. 

1.75 is for the cells.  It's the REST of the system that kicks it up to 5 - 6 per watt installed.  Still pricey.

You have a much bigger house than I do... I can tell because of your A/C.  I could get by if careful using a 1500 watt system.

22kw seems a little big for just about any house, though.  On your electric bill for August, take the number of Kw hours used and divide by 31.  That gives you a VERY loose approximation of how much kw you need per day.  Bill shows some of this at bottom of first page.  My electric was about 2400 kw hours, so I used 83 kwh per day.  24 hours - (83/24) tells me I need 3kw of capacity for this summer's A/C.  Ouch!

All other times, a 1 kw system would cover me pretty well.

[Red Arrow]

12 A at 115v?  I would have expected 240vac.

That's the nameplate rating on the inside unit.  That cubbyhole in the garage, heater, coldwater tank (well) and water heater, only has 115V.  220 is at the other end of the house and the laundry room wall, not next to the heater etc.  The fan rating I listed is for the fan on the outside unit. 

RLA is run load amps -
LRA is locked rotor amps -

Thanks

Sounds like a 5 ton unit.

I don't remember but I think that sounds high.  2 stage heat and 2 stage A/C.  York Affinity series.  We have the highest heater efficiency that does not require a flue fan.  A/C SEER was near but not the highest.

In theory... if the unit is properly sized, it should run full time at max load for the 'best operating point' efficiency.

Agreed.  Last summer it had a difficult time holding 80 on the really hot days and it ran continuously.  I had to clean the fins on the condenser a few times.  I wish I could have done a better job but I didn't want to remove the off of the outside unit.

[Red Arrow]

You have a much bigger house than I do... I can tell because of your A/C. 

About 1500 sq-ft. + attached but not heated/cooled 2 car garage.  Insulation is probably sagging now but the house was originally built in 1968 for a EE who had it insulated for electric heat but then put in gas heat and kitchen stove and oven.

22kw seems a little big for just about any house, though.

Think 100A 220V service and not caring about what starts when.   There is also a bit of fudge for loading down the internal combustion engine with motor starts and other surge loads.   I don't know the sq-ft on my uncle's house.  My aunt is not technically inclined so my uncle made sure she would not have to worry about power outages.  The circuit breaker box location in our house is more compatible with putting the automatic switcher outside by the meter and leaving the rest of the circuits as-is. (As-are?)

[heironymouspasparagus]

Well, I guess Red and I have pretty well hijacked this.  Sorry!  Will try to do this kind of stuff in PM from now on.  (See what a little bit of Asperger's will do to ya...)


Nathan,
You still out there??  Would still like to hear what you have to say.  (My impression is that you are not an engineer, so would really like to hear what a rational, non-engineer thinks.)

[AquaMan]

You guys are scary. We need engineers to carry special ID's with Geek endorsements. Thanks for the enlightenment though.

[nathanm]

1.75 is for the cells.  It's the REST of the system that kicks it up to 5 - 6 per watt installed.  Still pricey.

$115 per panel for a controller/voltage regulator and about a grand for the grid-tie inverter, last I checked. This is for a no-battery system that won't help you a whit if utility power goes down. It's not really cost effective to build a solar system that will meet the peak demand of most residences at present.

For large scale generation, PV isn't really the best form of solar. Solar thermal, with a power tower and molten salt storage, is more efficient than PV or the solar troughs. Perhaps at some point PV can be combined with thermal to increase efficiency more.

If one of the nearby trees dies, I may find myself with a PV system. As it is, my roof only gets about 6 hours of sun a day, at best.