South Carolina primary predictions

[Conan71]

This is a tough one. I think Mitt has an absolute ceiling of about 30-35% of Republicans that will support him. Just like Ron Paul has about 25%. I don't see their numbers changing much. Gingrich is where the support seemingly should go, but he's such a personal black hole  with his second ex-wife blasting him this week who knows if people are going to vote for him or not. It's a tough call, if a voter isn't going to vote for the big business moderate in Mitt or the Libertarian in Paul who do they vote for? The empty suit or the jerk-off?

If the race stays split with Paul taking 20-25% or so, and Mitt getting his 30-35% and the last 40% being split between Santorum and Gingrich mostly evenly Mitt can't help but win. But if one of them were to drop out, I think the one left standing would easily beat Mitt. Who blinks first, and do they do it in time?

I don't think Gingrich will fare well outside the south and Romney will be the nominee.  Only thing that could trip up Romney in the general is if Paul runs as an independent, then Obama will win handily.

[RecycleMichael]

Please make Newt the nominee.

His past marriages will make great attack ads by women's groups. His million dollar consulting fees to Fannie Mae will become the poster child of government misuse of funds. His partisanship will turn off independents and his past congressional sanction will be remembered (his own party voted against him on ethics charges).

Newt has more baggage than Kim Kardashian.

[Townsend]

Newt has more baggage than Kim Kardashian.

Same sized caboose too.

[Gaspar]

Please make Newt the nominee.

His past marriages will make great attack ads by women's groups. His million dollar consulting fees to Fannie Mae will become the poster child of government misuse of funds. His partisanship will turn off independents and his past congressional sanction will be remembered (his own party voted against him on ethics charges).

Newt has more baggage than Kim Kardashian.

Boy, I agree with that, but I'd still like to see a debate.  It would be magical.  Like Mike Tyson fighting Andy Dick.

[we vs us]

Boy, I agree with that, but I'd still like to see a debate.  It would be magical.  Like Mike Tyson fighting Andy Dick.

Disagree.  You're misremembering Obama big time.  He's a smart guy, charming, telegenic, and a very good public speaker. Disagree if you will about his politics (and I KNOW you will) he's a very good campaigner and an excellent debater. 

Gingrich will look like a pasty, bloated curmudgeon next to Big O.  It'll be the Kennedy/Nixon debates all over again.   

[Townsend]

Gingrich will look like a pasty, bloated curmudgeon next to Big O.  It'll be the Kennedy/Nixon debates all over again.   

So the Newters will hope for a radio debate?

[Conan71]

Disagree.  You're misremembering Obama big time.  He's a smart guy, charming, telegenic, and a very good public speaker. Disagree if you will about his politics (and I KNOW you will) he's a very good campaigner and an excellent debater. 

Gingrich will look like a pasty, bloated curmudgeon next to Big O.  It'll be the Kennedy/Nixon debates all over again.   

No, you are mis-remembering.  He's long on words and short on substance.

[Jammie]

The outcome was pretty amazing! It's surprising that someone who was already booted out by his own party and had so many ethic's violations has now won the SC primary. They're more conservative then most and were shocked and disgusted at President Clinton's behavior. Newt was doing the exact same thing while he was trying to have Clinton impeached. For some reason, the voters seem to feel that God has forgiven Newt. Makes you wonder why they never felt that way about Clinton.

How did he gain the vote of the female conservatives? It sounds like Democrats are allowed to vote in the GOP primary in SC. Do you suppose they came out in droves and voted for Newt while they pictured a debate between him and Pres. Obama?

[Conan71]

The outcome was pretty amazing! It's surprising that someone who was already booted out by his own party and had so many ethic's violations has now won the SC primary. They're more conservative then most and were shocked and disgusted at President Clinton's behavior. Newt was doing the exact same thing while he was trying to have Clinton impeached. For some reason, the voters seem to feel that God has forgiven Newt. Makes you wonder why they never felt that way about Clinton.

How did he gain the vote of the female conservatives? It sounds like Democrats are allowed to vote in the GOP primary in SC. Do you suppose they came out in droves and voted for Newt while they pictured a debate between him and Pres. Obama?

I'm not a Newt fan and not real happy about this victory, but aren't you a different person now than you were 15 years ago?

That aside, I believe most conservatives are willing to overlook personal peccadillos if a candidate can bring the type of leadership which will turn the tide on unemployment and growing debt load.  Gingrich actually does have a good track record on this when he was Speaker Of The House.  An important point to remember is that the Clinton surpluses were accomplished with a Republican House.

[AquaMan]

In conjunction with a Republican House, a Democratic administration and a growing economy. They didn't do it alone. Some might say they did it in spite of Gingrich's leadership.

[Red Arrow]

In conjunction with a Republican House, a Democratic administration and a growing economy. They didn't do it alone. Some might say they did it in spite of Gingrich's Clinton's Congress' leadership.

How did that happen anyway?

[AquaMan]

securitization I reckon.

[Jammie]

I'm not a Newt fan and not real happy about this victory, but aren't you a different person now than you were 15 years ago?

That aside, I believe most conservatives are willing to overlook personal peccadillos if a candidate can bring the type of leadership which will turn the tide on unemployment and growing debt load.  Gingrich actually does have a good track record on this when he was Speaker Of The House.  An important point to remember is that the Clinton surpluses were accomplished with a Republican House.

Yes, I have more wrinkles.    My point was that there have been more stones thrown at people who have a better track record then Newt so he's forgiven and others aren't?

The fact that this is his third marriage doesn't bother me or make me wonder why anyone would vote for him. It's that he had proposed to each future wife while he was still married to the previous one. His timing was bad, too. Wife number one was battling cancer when he asked her for a divorce and wife number two had just learned she has m.s. when he asked her for one. He has no heart and always comes across as angry and mean. Maybe that's why only a handful of the people he was in Congress with even supported him during the vote to oust him during the Ethics Violations fiasco.. The number was something as small as 28, maybe? They would know him best and the word to describe how many of them were feeling when he won in S. C. was "cringing".

Still chuckling about the comment that he looks like a fat knee.

[Conan71]

Yes, I have more wrinkles.    My point was that there have been more stones thrown at people who have a better track record then Newt so he's forgiven and others aren't?

The fact that this is his third marriage doesn't bother me or make me wonder why anyone would vote for him. It's that he had proposed to each future wife while he was still married to the previous one. His timing was bad, too. Wife number one was battling cancer when he asked her for a divorce and wife number two had just learned she has m.s. when he asked her for one. He has no heart and always comes across as angry and mean. Maybe that's why only a handful of the people he was in Congress with even supported him during the vote to oust him during the Ethics Violations fiasco.. The number was something as small as 28, maybe? They would know him best and the word to describe how many of them were feeling when he won in S. C. was "cringing".

Still chuckling about the comment that he looks like a fat knee.

Come on Jammie, don't you make an offer on a new car before you actually trade the old one in?

[Hoss]

Come on Jammie, don't you make an offer on a new car before you actually trade the old one in?

Damn, that's what I was doing wrong..wait, what?  I've only had one car.  It's easier/cheaper to walk now.