Let's talk Electoral College

[heironymouspasparagus]

See you at your house in 10 minutes...

Bring a bottle of Wild Turkey.  I'll be here - and I have more sweet potatoes ready to go...bring some friends.

Man, that was good stuff.  Can't handle the whole brown sugar, marshmallow thing with them, but the savory combination is ideal.

I have been planning to put some on the grill next time I fire it up, just to see how that goes.  With some grilled cajun cabbage...I don't know if I could stand it so good.

[Conan71]

I actually like it with butter and brown sugar, but no marshmallows.  The whole "Yam" thing is disgusting to me.  Another great way to do them is dice them into 1/2 cubes toss them in olive oil then toss them in Italian spice mix, place them on a cookie sheet, grind kosher salt over them and cook at 400 for 25 minutes, turn them once while baking.  Serve with ranch dressing.

Oh, and as far as Nate Silver, sounds like he's skeeerd!

[Townsend]

I actually like it with butter and brown sugar, but no marshmallows.  The whole "Yam" thing is disgusting to me.  Another great way to do them is dice them into 1/2 cubes toss them in olive oil then toss them in Italian spice mix, place them on a cookie sheet, grind kosher salt over them and cook at 400 for 25 minutes, turn them once while baking.  Serve with ranch dressing.

Cut in wedges, olive oil, heavy cumin, heavy smoked paprika and salt.  Same temp, same time.

[Conan71]

Cut in wedges, olive oil, heavy cumin, heavy smoked paprika and salt.  Same temp, same time.

Sounds right up our alley.  Might even have to experiment with some Hatch chile powder (New Mexican crack to Mrs. C and I)

[Hoss]

Sounds right up our alley.  Might even have to experiment with some Hatch chile powder (New Mexican crack to Mrs. C and I)

Damn both of you to hell.  I'm hungry for sweet potatoes now.   

[heironymouspasparagus]

Damn both of you to hell.  I'm hungry for sweet potatoes now.   

I mixed up a batch of Emeril's Essence last weekend - not the stuff they sell in the stores - from the recipe he posted about 10 years ago on his web site.  Pretty good stuff.  I'm thinking maybe I need to add a "bam" or two to the mix just to see what happens....

[Oil Capital]

Uh-Oh.  Minnesota appears to be tightening and may be a surprise battleground in the final weeks.

[Oil Capital]

Here's an interesting blurb from MSNBC regarding ad buys.  For those of you bitterly clinging to the fantasy that Wisconsin is not in play, note the ad spending in Wisconsin and try to explain that away:

Hottest markets: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Four of the top 10 hottest markets this week (in terms of advertising points from Oct. 15-21) are in the Buckeye State. Wisconsin has two, including Green Bay in the top spot. One striking thing about this week's top markets -- no Virginia. Markets like Norfolk, Roanoke, and Richmond have routinely been in the top 10, but they have dropped out to 16, 21, and 22, respectively. The Obama campaign has maintained its levels in Norfolk and Richmond, but cut it in half in Roanoke, from 1,500 points to 795 this week. The Romney campaign, on the other hand, INCREASED its spending in that market. The Obama campaign increased in places like Mason City, IA. Romney has more ad points than Obama narrowly in Denver, Mason City, and Orlando. One of the "tells" we told you about MONTHS ago about this battleground map was to keep an eye on October and see where the battle was being waged more intensely. If it was in the New South battleground states of FL/NC and VA more than the Midwest, advantage Obama. Well, this list of markets tells you, the battle is in the Midwest, that's good news for Romney.

[RecycleMichael]

Well, this list of markets tells you, the battle is in the Midwest, that's good news for Romney.

Why would this be good news for Romney? Because MSNBC says so?

The state of Ohio has been listed as a battle ground state for more than a few presidential elections in a row. Look at the history of thae last couple of election polls for Ohio...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html

Show me the polls that say that show the Minnesota race tightening. These collection of polls say otherwise...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html

[guido911]

Why would this be good news for Romney? Because MSNBC says so?

The state of Ohio has been listed as a battle ground state for more than a few presidential elections in a row. Look at the history of thae last couple of election polls for Ohio...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html

Show me the polls that say that show the Minnesota race tightening. These collection of polls say otherwise...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html

I think the point is that the fact that polls are showing things either tightening or flipping is the issue. That's at least the teasing messages I have been sending. Sill, its Obama's race to lose.

[RecycleMichael]

I guess news that the presidential race is close is not really news to me. Look at these popular vote percentage differences...

John F Kennedy in 1960 won by .17 of one percent
Richard Nixon in 1968 won by .70 of one percent
Jimmy Carter in 1976 won by 2.06 percent
George W. Bush in 2000 lost the popular vote by .51 of one percent
George W. Bush in 2004 won by 2.41 percent

Who is surprised that this race is close? It is the norm for the country.

[joiei]

I mixed up a batch of Emeril's Essence last weekend - not the stuff they sell in the stores - from the recipe he posted about 10 years ago on his web site.  Pretty good stuff.  I'm thinking maybe I need to add a "bam" or two to the mix just to see what happens....

I agree, the original recipes in the cookbooks are much better.  Paul Prudhomme's Blackening spice from his first cookbook is so easy do double or triple and it is much better than the stuff in the jars.  There is too much salt and other stuff in the commercially produced product.   

[Oil Capital]

Why would this be good news for Romney? Because MSNBC says so?

Your argument is with Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower of MSNBC.  Take it up with them.   But in case you really don't get it...  It's because the battle is now being fought in states that are much more "must win" states for Obama than for Romney.  Romney's on offense, so to speak.  Obama is defending his home turf (as exemplified by the fact that Wisconsin, a state many observers thought would be "almost certain" for Obama is very much in play).  At this point, Ohio is every bit as much (if not more) of a "must win" state for Obama as for Romney.

The state of Ohio has been listed as a battle ground state for more than a few presidential elections in a row. Look at the history of thae last couple of election polls for Ohio...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html

Yeah... And???

Show me the polls that say that show the Minnesota race tightening. These collection of polls say otherwise...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html

It's a little bit anecdotal (like the fact that the Obama campaign is doing events in Minnesota in these closing weeks).  And if you dig into the polls, it is probably closer than it appears on the surface.  

[Hoss]

Your argument is with Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower of MSNBC.  Take it up with them.

Yeah... And???

It's a little bit anecdotal (like the fact that the Obama campaign is doing events in Minnesota in these closing weeks).  And if you dig into the polls, it is probably closer than it appears on the surface. 

Wow.  Even screaming in text.

[nathanm]

Show me the polls that say that show the Minnesota race tightening. These collection of polls say otherwise...http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html

They don't. There were two taken right after the first debate. One showed Obama +10, the other +4. The latest poll has Obama at +10 again. It's not unreasonable to argue that Wisconsin could be in play (not likely given that Romney has yet to be up in any poll there, but possible), but saying the Minnesota race is tightening is just wishful thinking.

That said, today wasn't a great day for the President. I still have him at 271, but the remainder of the battleground states were leaning in Romney's direction today. I'm not ready to call Iowa, for example, for Romney but PPP had him up by 1 there. Not that you should place much emphasis on a single poll, but it's enough to make me wonder. Romney also got good news in Virginia, with Rasmussen showing him up +3 (IOW, probably +1 in reality). PPP also had Romney +1 in New Hampshire.

So it wasn't really a great day in the polls for Romney, but it definitely wasn't a good day for the Obama, either.

Again, as far as Winsconsin being very much in play, Obama polled at 50% in a Rasmussen poll yesterday. Sure, if Romney has a strong ground game or the Democrats suddenly become demoralized and refuse to vote he could win. It's not likely, though. He has led in three polls so far this year, most recently in August. If he couldn't pull out a win in at least one during his post-debate bounce, he's not likely to win. It's just competitive enough to give the news media something to talk about and give the campaigns a reason to continue spending money there, but unless there's a dramatic shift in the next two and a half weeks, Romney loses there.

The thing is that if Obama holds Wisconsin and the rest of his safe states, he only has to win Ohio and Nevada to get to 271. Romney has to win Florida and Ohio both, plus Virginia and either New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, or Nevada. (Or lose Virginia and get all of Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire) Point being that it's still an uphill battle for him. More likely than it was 3 weeks ago, but still an uphill battle.