Let's talk Electoral College

[RecycleMichael]

OK. Maybe more like 228,725 votes.

Then it would be a tie.

[Conan71]

It was easy for the Romney ticket to fool these folks.  It is much harder to show them they've been fooled.

Maybe next time.

So that explains why Obama is counting so heavily on repeat votes from '08.

[Townsend]

So that explains why Obama is counting so heavily on repeat votes from '08.

Oh you can't just use mine.  Come up with a scathingly brilliant retort.

[Conan71]

Oh you can't just use mine.  Come up with a scathingly brilliant retort.

I'm just not able to channel scathing or brilliant this afternoon, sorry for the bogart, it's all I got right now.

[RecycleMichael]

The main battlegrounds: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin.

That would mean that Obama has 242 electoral votes and Romney has 206 electoral votes locked up.

If Obama wins Florida, he wins. If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins. If Obama wins Ohio and any two of the other states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin) he wins.

Romney pretty much has to win Florida, Ohio and either Wisconsin or Virginia to win.

[Oil Capital]

That would mean that Obama has 242 electoral votes and Romney has 206 electoral votes locked up.

If Obama wins Florida, he wins. If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins. If Obama wins Ohio and any two of the other states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin) he wins.

Romney pretty much has to win Florida, Ohio and either Wisconsin or Virginia to win.

Except there is obviously a category that falls in between "main battleground" and "locked up".  Nevada, for example, whose absence from that list is inexplicable.  Nevada is very much in play... Romney and Obama are both visiting this week.

[Conan71]

That would mean that Obama has 242 electoral votes and Romney has 206 electoral votes locked up.

If Obama wins Florida, he wins. If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins. If Obama wins Ohio and any two of the other states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin) he wins.

Romney pretty much has to win Florida, Ohio and either Wisconsin or Virginia to win.

What's your bookie saying the odds are on those right now?

[RecycleMichael]

What's your bookie saying the odds are on those right now?

My bookie and my insurance guy are the same person. I pay them a little every month and if something bad happens, the insurance man pays. If something good happens, the bookie pays me.

[nathanm]

Nevada is very much in play

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Even Rasmussen has Obama +3 in Nevada. It's hard to believe that Romney has a good chance of exceeding his high water mark after the first debate. This race has been very hard to move so far. I believe if you average out the numbers, Romney got about two points for showing that he wasn't a complete buffoon and that's been the largest shift in the election so far.

Barring a major October surprise, I just don't see how things are going to drift that far in Romney's direction after having lost two of the three debates and neither candidate having much in the way of momentum at the moment. Obama has been creeping up slightly, but it's slight and I don't see it going much farther.

Like my view on Wisconsin, I think the only way Romney wins Nevada is if it turns into a wave election in which case it won't matter because he'll have already won North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

[Townsend]

Barring a major October surprise

Trump.  He will blow your mind.

[nathanm]

Trump.  He will blow your mind.

Probably about as much as Obama explaining to Romney how planes land on aircraft carriers and illustrating with his hands like he was talking to a four year old.

[carltonplace]

This Map has OH, NV, WI, CO NH, and IA leaning BLUE and AZ, CO, FL and NC leaning RED with VA a tie.
SOURCE: http://electoral-vote.com/

[heironymouspasparagus]

I saw a discussion this morning about an EC tie...that is what I would LOVE to see in this election....it would most likely mean Romney as President and Biden as Vice President.  How cool would that be??

[Oil Capital]

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Even Rasmussen has Obama +3 in Nevada. It's hard to believe that Romney has a good chance of exceeding his high water mark after the first debate. This race has been very hard to move so far. I believe if you average out the numbers, Romney got about two points for showing that he wasn't a complete buffoon and that's been the largest shift in the election so far.

Barring a major October surprise, I just don't see how things are going to drift that far in Romney's direction after having lost two of the three debates and neither candidate having much in the way of momentum at the moment. Obama has been creeping up slightly, but it's slight and I don't see it going much farther.

Like my view on Wisconsin, I think the only way Romney wins Nevada is if it turns into a wave election in which case it won't matter because he'll have already won North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

Staying connected with reality does help me sleep at night.  ;-)

If Nevada is not in play why would both Obama and Romney be spending crucial time and money there in the final two weeks of the campaign?  Even the hallowed Nate Silver lists Nevada as competitive.

In another thread you claimed Obama is moving up in state polls.  In which states have Obama's poll standings recently improved?

[Hoss]

Staying connected with reality does help me sleep at night.  ;-)

If Nevada is not in play why would both Obama and Romney be spending crucial time and money there in the final two weeks of the campaign?  Even the hallowed Nate Silver lists Nevada as competitive.

In another thread you claimed Obama is moving up in state polls.  In which states have Obama's poll standings recently improved?

How about we do this?

How about YOU cite the polls where his haven't improved or have gotten worse.  Since you seem to like to ask people for citations.