Let's talk Electoral College

[Oil Capital]

Nevada:

PPP goes from O+4 on Oct. 10 to O+4 on Oct. 24.  Obama not moving up (the prior PPP poll:  O+9)
Rassmussen goes from TIED on Oct. 8 to O+2 on Oct. 23.  Obama moving up.
ARG goes from O+7 on Sept. 23 to O+2 on Oct. 22.  Obama moving down.
LVRJ goes from O+1 on Oct. 8 to O+3 on Oct. 15.  Obama moving up.

The RCP graph goes from O+1.5 on Oct. 10 to O+2.7 on Oct. 24.  Obama moving up.

[Oil Capital]

Wisconsin:

Rassmussen goes from O+2 on Oct. 9 to O+2 on Oct. 18.  Obama not moving up.
NBC goes from O+5 on Sept. 18 to O+6 on Oct. 17.  Obama moving up.
Marquette goes from O+11 on Sept. 30 to O+1 on Oct. 14.  Obama moving down.
Quinnipiac goes from O+6 on Sept. 17 to O+3 on Oct. 9.  Obama moving down.
PPP goes from O+7 on Sept. 19 to O+2 on Oct. 6.  Obama moving down.

The RCP graph goes from O+6.6 on Oct. 9 to O+2.7 on Oct. 23.  Obama moving down.

[nathanm]

On a completely different note, Obama has ridiculous leads in early voting in both Ohio and Nevada, but in both states pollsters have reported that those who have yet to vote are slightly favoring Romney. The crosstabs on PPP's Nevada release today are just dismal for Romney. Not that you should place too much stock in a single poll, but bear with me. Obama is up 22 points among the third of the sample that claims to have already voted. He trails by 6 points among the other two thirds of the sample.

Also, if we scrape together 20 grand, we can hire PPP to do a tracking poll in Ohio for the remainder of the cycle.

[TulsaRufnex]

Oi.  Oil Capital spam.  most polls you are currently citing do not reflect the final two debates...

A few things.... First debate was Oct. 3rd. Second debate (VP) was Oct 11th.  Third debate was Oct 16th.  Final debate was Oct 22nd.
... some polls post an average of a few days worth (Gallup does six)... some swing state polls barely publish more than 1-2 times per month... most polls have a disclaimer stating differences of 2-3 points are basically meaningless...

INHO, these polls are not much different than Vegas odds... except the odds are being given while part of the game is still being played...
However, if Nate Silver says Obama has a 67% chance of winning two weeks before the vote and Romney ends up winning... Republicans will claim LIBERAL MEDIA BIAS!  
Go figure....  

[Oil Capital]

On a completely different note, Obama has ridiculous leads in early voting in both Ohio and Nevada, but in both states pollsters have reported that those who have yet to vote are slightly favoring Romney. The crosstabs on PPP's Nevada release today are just dismal for Romney. Not that you should place too much stock in a single poll, but bear with me. Obama is up 22 points among the third of the sample that claims to have already voted. He trails by 6 points among the other two thirds of the sample.

Also, if we scrape together 20 grand, we can hire PPP to do a tracking poll in Ohio for the remainder of the cycle.

How does the 1/3 who have claimed to have voted compare to the number that have actually voted?  Any idea?

I did a little searching and it tells us that this poll may have some significant flaws  The poll claims 34% of voters have already voted.  

In 2008, approximately 967,000 votes were cast for President.  If we presume a similar percentage voter turnout this year, the 34% stated in the poll would mean 341,117 people had already voted.  The Secretary of State's office says 214,609 votes have been cast.  That is only 21% of the the anticipated vote.  This is one of the few occasions and issues in which we can fact-check a poll in real time.

[nathanm]

How does the 1/3 who have claimed to have voted compare to the number that have actually voted?  Any idea?

As of the last update, 24% of the 2008 electorate in Nevada has voted. I'm not sure how much registration has grown since 2008, though. In 2008, 66% of the Nevada electorate voted early.

[Oil Capital]

As of the last update, 24% of the 2008 electorate in Nevada has voted. I'm not sure how much registration has grown since 2008, though. In 2008, 66% of the Nevada electorate voted early.

Nevada has 1,500,818 registered voters for the 2012 election.

It looks like they had 1,446,538 registered voters in 2008.   Registration has not grown by a huge amount, but it has grown.  See my post above.  The PPP poll looks pretty flawed.

[Oil Capital]

Oi.  Oil Capital spam.  most polls you are currently citing do not reflect the final two debates...

A few things.... First debate was Oct. 3rd. Second debate (VP) was Oct 11th.  Third debate was Oct 16th.  Final debate was Oct 22nd.
... some polls post an average of a few days worth (Gallup does six)... some swing state polls barely publish more than 1-2 times per month... most polls have a disclaimer stating differences of 2-3 points are basically meaningless...

INHO, these polls are not much different than Vegas odds... except the odds are being given while part of the game is still being played...
However, if Nate Silver says Obama has a 67% chance of winning two weeks before the vote and Romney ends up winning... Republicans will claim LIBERAL MEDIA BIAS!  
Go figure....  

Sorry you don't like the numbers.  They are what they are.  I am merely reporting the most recent poll results available.  If you have something more recent, bring it on.

[Teatownclown]

Oil Crapital, I'll buy you a Big Green Burrito from Carl Jr.'s if Willard wins Nevada. You don't need to give me anything...

[TulsaRufnex]

Sorry you don't like the numbers.  They are what they are.  I am merely reporting the most recent poll results available.  If you have something more recent, bring it on.

No, the numbers don't concern me at this point... I'm simply pointing out the numbers you are spamming us with are already out of date.
Most numbers are within the margin of error. 
Have a nice day.

[Oil Capital]

Oil Crapital, I'll buy you a Big Green Burrito from Carl Jr.'s if Willard wins Nevada. You don't need to give me anything...

Please don't.  ;-)

[RecycleMichael]

(It would be an even worse sign for any campaign to be doing fund-raising stops at this late date.)

http://www.news8000.com/news/politics/Romney-campaign-reports-massive-fund-raising-haul/-/1032/17128076/-/ildq3u/-/index.html

The latest numbers do not include fund-raising that occurred around the final presidential debate, which took place Monday, October 22. A major super PAC supporting Romney's candidacy had a strong night, too, the group's founder said the day after the debate.

"I think that today will probably be the best fund-raising day we've had, if not one of the top two fund-raising days we've ever had," Charlie Spies of Restore our Future said on CNN's Erin Burnett "OutFront."

In September, the Romney effort raised $170 million, while President Barack Obama's team raised $181 million last month.

Romney's campaign announced they held their final fund-raiser for the cycle on Saturday, shifting focus to public rallies in the final two weeks of the race.

Through the end of September, Romney had raised more than $361.3 million this cycle, Federal Election Commission records show.

His running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, however, continues to attend fund-raisers this week.
Is this enough proof to admit you are wrong? Or are you going to just call me names again?

[Oil Capital]

http://www.news8000.com/news/politics/Romney-campaign-reports-massive-fund-raising-haul/-/1032/17128076/-/ildq3u/-/index.html

The latest numbers do not include fund-raising that occurred around the final presidential debate, which took place Monday, October 22. A major super PAC supporting Romney's candidacy had a strong night, too, the group's founder said the day after the debate.

"I think that today will probably be the best fund-raising day we've had, if not one of the top two fund-raising days we've ever had," Charlie Spies of Restore our Future said on CNN's Erin Burnett "OutFront."

In September, the Romney effort raised $170 million, while President Barack Obama's team raised $181 million last month.

Romney's campaign announced they held their final fund-raiser for the cycle on Saturday, shifting focus to public rallies in the final two weeks of the race.

Through the end of September, Romney had raised more than $361.3 million this cycle, Federal Election Commission records show.

His running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, however, continues to attend fund-raisers this week.[/b]
Is this enough proof to admit you are wrong? Or are you going to just call me names again?

Dude, no where did I say the campaigns do not continue to raise funds during the final stages of the campaign.   I said that Obama and Romney would not be spending time at fund raisers.  Your quoted article actually confirms my position with regard to Romney.  

I'm a little surprised that Ryan is doing as much fund-raising as he is this week, but my point was really about the top dogs.  And more to the point, this whole ridiculous discussion was about the Romney and Obama events in Nevada this week.  As I originally said, they both conducted campaign events, NOT fund-raising events.   Where is your evidence otherwise?  When do you admit you are wrong?

[RecycleMichael]

Who uses the word "Dude?"

All I said was that maybe the candidates were going to Nevada to also fund raise as well. You went off and said they are not and how embarrassing it would be to do a fundraising stop at this late date.

I show evidence that candidates are still doing fundraising stops.

Yet you insist that I am wrong.

Dude.

[Oil Capital]

Who uses the word "Dude?"

All I said was that maybe the candidates were going to Nevada to also fund raise as well. You went off and said they are not and how embarrassing it would be to do a fundraising stop at this late date.

I show evidence that candidates are still doing fundraising stops.

Yet you insist that I am wrong.

Dude.

Yeah, you were wrong.   Romney and Obama did NOT go to Nevada to raise funds.