Let's talk Electoral College

[RecycleMichael]

These states are most likel going to go for Obama. Current polls in each state show Obama ahead and the democrats have carried each one for the last five elections, including supporting bad candidates like John Kerry and Al Gore and won last time by Barack Obama. Next to each of them is the number of electoral votes.

California (55), Connecticut (7), D.C. (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsyvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).

That equals 242 almost certain electoral votes. It takes 270 to win.

Florida has 29 votes which means if Obama wins Florida, he wins the election. Obama won it last time by two percent and is leading in the polls right now by four percent.

Obama is ahead by three percent in Virginia and won it over McCain by six percent four years ago to get their 13 electoral votes. Obama won Ohio by four percent last time and recent polls show him up over Romney by six percent. They have eighteen votes up for grabs.

New Hampshire has 4 votes and Obama is ahead by four percent in polling and they have voted for the democrat candidate 4 of the last five (Gore lost by one percent). New Mexico has also supported the democrat four of the last five (Kerry lost by one percent) and polls show Obama up by four percent. Obama won this state last time by fifteen percent to capture their five votes.

Obama also won in Colorado last time by eight percent to get their nine electoral votes. Obama also won Nevada by twelve points last time and recent polling shows him up by five points for six votes.

Those states have a total of 55 electoral votes.

If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins. If he only wins one of them and three of the smaller four, he wins.

In order to win, Romney has to hold on to his 191 likely votes, win Iowa where he is two points ahead in polling but Obama won last time by nine percent (the democrats have won this state four of the last five and Kerry only lost by one point), and North Carolina (Romney ahead by one point but won by Obama by one point last time, and basically run the table on every other state.

I think Obama wins Florida, Ohio and all the smaller states listed above to get at least 317 electoral votes.

[Townsend]

I'm interested to see how the Ryan choice effects the polling.

It's given the GOP a reason to vote for someone instead of against someone.

I believe he'll become the election news way beyond ol' whats-his-name, the Republican Presidential candidate.

Ryan probably won't make all the gaffs the preceding GOP VP candidate made.

[erfalf]

Ryan probably won't make all the gaffs the preceding GOP VP candidate made.

Which is probably why you will see far less face-to-face interviews. They are already cutting out some of his interviews (60 minutes) that present him in far too good of light.

[Gaspar]

Pretty sure that Ryan lost Florida for Mitt.  I think he will have a positive impact on Ohio though.  President Obama had significant independent support in that state in 2008.  His performance as president has eroded that, and Mitt's pick of Ryan has cauterized the Romney platform to be one of economic and budgetary focus.  President Obama will continue to run on social issues and fear, and I think that will have less impact on independent voters this time around.

[nathanm]

I think that will have less impact on independent voters this time around.

Whatever Obama is doing, independents have been quite happy with it thus far, at least compared to Romney. It will indeed be interesting to see how the numbers change over the coming weeks.

[Teatownclown]

Goldwater II  .... landslide approaching....86 daze!

[AquaMan]

Which is probably why you will see far less face-to-face interviews. They are already cutting out some of his interviews (60 minutes) that present him in far too good of light.

They?

You mean the incompetent republican handlers or that conspiratorial left wing media? I decrease the credibility of a post when "they" is used without reference. There is no evil like the evil of an undefined "they".

[erfalf]

They?

You mean the incompetent republican handlers or that conspiratorial left wing media? I decrease the credibility of a post when "they" is used without reference. There is no evil like the evil of an undefined "they".

ABC, CBS, NBC. The networks that made habit out of trying to nail Palin, which in fairness was quit easy to do.

I agree with you. I hate when people use "they". My mistake. I really knew who I was talking about in this case though.

[AquaMan]

Just my pet peeve.

Does anyone pay any attention to the new from those networks anymore? It seems the news is so light as to be useless these days. I get most of my news fix from MSNBC, the business channels, a smidgen of Fox and Colbert/Stewart. When someone leaves a perfectly good news magazine or newspaper laying around I'll soak that up as well.

From my perspective though I have to tell you I see no love for Obama or Biden from the big three or print. Its like sports, the Cowboys always think they're getting the shaft and the Sooners know they are!

[carltonplace]

  President Obama will continue to run on social issues and fear

Please.

Listen to Mitt's stump speaches and honestly tell me he is side stepping "fear". Or maybe all you hear is the "I love the hymns of America" meme.

[Gaspar]

Just my pet peeve.

Does anyone pay any attention to the new from those networks anymore? It seems the news is so light as to be useless these days. I get most of my news fix from MSNBC, the business channels, a smidgen of Fox and Colbert/Stewart. When someone leaves a perfectly good news magazine or newspaper laying around I'll soak that up as well.

From my perspective though I have to tell you I see no love for Obama or Biden from the big three or print. Its like sports, the Cowboys always think they're getting the shaft and the Sooners know they are!

I actually agree.  We spent a good deal of time this weekend watching the "take" from different news organizations on Mitt's pick and though there was a good dose of vitriol against Romney and Ryan, there was no love or praise of President Obama.  In fact most used the term "failing economy" several times, also "troubled" and "embattled."

There wasn't a single instance that I saw where they contrasted or detailed an Obama success.  The mention of Ryan seemed to give them the poop face, but there was no foil to that when they discussed President Obama.  It seems that the passion for Obama may have passed and all they have left is distain for the other guy.

He may be a disappointment, but he's their disappointment, and that makes them angrier than normal. 

[RecycleMichael]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/romney-path-victory-goes-florida-ohio-virginia-172824466.html

Mitt Romney has one clear route to victory on Nov. 6: In addition to winning all the states we know he will win, he has to capture Florida, Virginia, Ohio and at least one of five other swing states.

It's very possible Romney will win more than that. Our model of presidential elections, for example, has him with a 17.2 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania. Were he to manage that, however, it would almost certainly be part of a national landslide in his favor that includes most of the swing states. While I'm sure the Romney campaign would be delighted to win Pennsylvania, if it manages that it will be because Romney won far more than the 270 electoral votes he needed.

According to the Signal's election model, which combines polling, prediction markets and historical data, there are 18 states that will definitely vote for Romney and 13 that will definitely vote for Obama. There are six additional states in each camp that have at least an 80 percent chance of going for the leading candidate. In those 12 heavily leaning states, it is very possible that Romney or Obama can pick off one. It is nearly impossible that one of these states will decide the election.

This leaves eight states, worth 95 electoral votes, in play. Without those states, Obama has 237 electoral votes to Romney's 206 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 votes for victory, so Obama needs 33 more and Romney needs 64 more to win.

If Romney can capture Florida, Virginia, and Ohio—the three swing states he's most likely to win—he will come within four votes of the magic number. At that point, he would need any one of the other swing states: New Hampshire and Iowa are the most likely, both near 55 percent for Obama. While Romney's running mate, Paul Ryan, hails from Wisconsin, the polls there have consistently favored Obama by about 4 percentage points. Data from the past 10 elections has demonstrated again and again that vice-presidential home state bumps are negligible.

[Red Arrow]

Mitt Romney has one clear route to victory on Nov. 6:

Winning more Electoral College votes than Obama.  We'll see what happens.

One thing in my favor is being an old guy with no kids.  I doubt the country will go to he!! in a handbasket in the time I have remaining in this world.  You young guys will reap what you sow. I have no kids or grandkids to worry about. Vote Obama.  Either way you will be supporting me in a few years.  I hope you can afford it.

[nathanm]

I hope you can afford it.

Absent total global economic meltdown, we can afford it. That's what's so insidious about the Republican strategy. They, with complicit Democrats have cut taxes time and time again so as to create a seemingly intractable budget deficit which they then use as a club to force a reduction in social spending. I would have an easier time believing the Republicans when they say that they really are interested in the deficit if they didn't blow a hole in the budget every chance they get.

The economy moved along fine even when we had higher tax rates, so the Republican insistence that lowering taxes is the solution to our economic problems makes no sense at all. Not to mention that a trillion dollars or so in Obama tax cuts seems to have not helped much, either. I'm not ready to believe that tax cuts are stimulative when tax levels are too low, as some economists have argued after looking at the Bush I and Clinton tax hikes, but I also don't believe that tax cuts are very stimulative at existing low rates, either.

So yeah, if people come to their senses, we'll have no problem supporting you in your old age. Hell, even Paul Ryan wants to keep you from having to eat cat food. Not so much with folks not that much younger than you, but at least he's not a completely heartless bastard. Apparently we'll find the money somewhere by shrinking the rest of the federal budget to levels not seen since early in the last century, but we'll be fine. Perhaps hauling more goods by wagon than by truck, but fine overall.

[Red Arrow]

Absent total global economic meltdown, we can afford it.

Thank you.  Anything you said beyond that is just left wing script.  Good evening. It's time for me to call it a day.