Let's talk Electoral College

[Red Arrow]

Don't you find it funny that Obama gets credit for a government subsidized phone program started before he was President?

Not really.  I assume you mean funny=odd or peculiar vs. funny ha ha.

[Oil Capital]

These states are most likel going to go for Obama. Current polls in each state show Obama ahead and the democrats have carried each one for the last five elections, including supporting bad candidates like John Kerry and Al Gore and won last time by Barack Obama. Next to each of them is the number of electoral votes.

California (55), Connecticut (7), D.C. (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsyvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).

That equals 242 almost certain electoral votes. It takes 270 to win.

Florida has 29 votes which means if Obama wins Florida, he wins the election. Obama won it last time by two percent and is leading in the polls right now by four percent.

Obama is ahead by three percent in Virginia and won it over McCain by six percent four years ago to get their 13 electoral votes. Obama won Ohio by four percent last time and recent polls show him up over Romney by six percent. They have eighteen votes up for grabs.

New Hampshire has 4 votes and Obama is ahead by four percent in polling and they have voted for the democrat candidate 4 of the last five (Gore lost by one percent). New Mexico has also supported the democrat four of the last five (Kerry lost by one percent) and polls show Obama up by four percent. Obama won this state last time by fifteen percent to capture their five votes.

Obama also won in Colorado last time by eight percent to get their nine electoral votes. Obama also won Nevada by twelve points last time and recent polling shows him up by five points for six votes.

Those states have a total of 55 electoral votes.

If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins. If he only wins one of them and three of the smaller four, he wins.

In order to win, Romney has to hold on to his 191 likely votes, win Iowa where he is two points ahead in polling but Obama won last time by nine percent (the democrats have won this state four of the last five and Kerry only lost by one point), and North Carolina (Romney ahead by one point but won by Obama by one point last time, and basically run the table on every other state.

I think Obama wins Florida, Ohio and all the smaller states listed above to get at least 317 electoral votes.

RM's "almost certain" Obama list includes some states that are less than "almost certain".  e.g., Wisconsin is very much in play.  Pennsylvania and Michigan may still be in play.  Even Oregon and Minnesota could be in play.  

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are all trending towards Romney.  The latest polls have him leading in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado, and within the margin of error in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada.

Romney's 191 "likely" votes are almost certain.  North Carolina is close behind.  I think Romney also wins at least Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.  That's 279 electoral votes.  He probably also takes Ohio and very likely Wisconsin (307 total votes). Possibly Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota,  and Oregon (in order of declining likelihood)  (360 total votes).

[Oil Capital]

80 days.... I got 311 electoral votes for Obama. It may get closer than that but not by much....


The mandate approaches....

[nathanm]

Still looking good on the EC front for Obama, aside from FL and VA. Ohio continues to show a consistent small lead for Obama. If Romney can't flip it, he's done unless he runs the table on all the other tossups. At this point, it looks like 290-300ish for Obama by my count.

Wisconsin being in play is just wishful thinking from the Romney camp. On what was the worst day of polling for Obama this year Rasmussen, which tends to run a point or two too strong for the Republicans showed Obama up by 2.

Obviously, the debate could render these comments moot.

[Oil Capital]

Still looking good on the EC front for Obama, aside from FL and VA. Ohio continues to show a consistent small lead for Obama. If Romney can't flip it, he's done unless he runs the table on all the other tossups. At this point, it looks like 290-300ish for Obama by my count.

Wisconsin being in play is just wishful thinking from the Romney camp. On what was the worst day of polling for Obama this year Rasmussen, which tends to run a point or two too strong for the Republicans showed Obama up by 2.

Obviously, the debate could render these comments moot.

But the other recent Wisconsin polls were done by CBS/NYTImes, which tends to favor Democrats by at least 2, and shows Obama up only 3; and PPP which tends to run several points too strong for Dems and only gives Obama a 2 point lead.  All 3 polls are well within the margin of error.   That is in play... Not wishful thinking.  Cerainly far from "almost certain".  And the trend is clearly against Obama.

Obama will end up closer to 250 than to 300.

[Hoss]

But the other recent Wisconsin polls were done by CBS/NYTImes, which tends to favor Democrats by at least 2, and shows Obama up only 3; and PPP which tends to run several points too strong for Dems and only gives Obama a 2 point lead.  All 3 polls are well within the margin of error.   That is in play... Not wishful thinking.  Cerainly far from "almost certain".  And the trend is clearly against Obama.

Wishful thinking.

No matter what anyone says on here, I do read Nate Silver's 538.  Once again, over the last two election cycles, he tends to be the closest tracker.  Romney had his big gains after the first presidential election, but now have shown in the last two days to be trending away from it.

But hell, what do I know.  Nate's only use fancy formulas and stuff...you know, that stuff that many Republicans don't know?  Math?

Intrade?

They have him at 63.5 today.  They had him around 80 earlier in September.  He's trending up since the Biden debate.

[nathanm]

The last Wisconsin poll that had Romney up at all was in August. Since then, Rasmussen, PPP, CBS, NBC, and WeAskAmerica have all shown Obama ahead. It is possible, but highly unlikely that Romney is up in Wisconsin at this point. It would be nice to see more recent numbers, though. The last poll of Wisconsin was the Rasmussen poll on the 9th.

Also note that the last poll to show Romney up was PPP before you complain about their supposed bias. And again, these polls are from a period where Romney was at his high water mark. Given that Romney's first debate bounce has somewhat faded in other states, it is likely it has faded in Wisconsin as well. I suspect that a bunch of polls taken today would have Obama at around +5 in Wisconsin.

Now, if you want to talk about Colorado or North Carolina, those are not looking good for Obama. I had previously been reasonably confident in Obama taking Colorado, but now I see it as a true tossup. If Romney had the consistent lead in Colorado that Obama has had in Wisconsin, I'd think it would likely go his direction, but he's only gotten two +1s so far.

I guess we'll just have to see how it all plays out in the end, won't we?  

[Teatownclown]

I've said all along 311...that could be lite.

I'd bet it won't be less than 250....

[Oil Capital]

The last Wisconsin poll that had Romney up at all was in August. Since then, Rasmussen, PPP, CBS, NBC, and WeAskAmerica have all shown Obama ahead. It is possible, but highly unlikely that Romney is up in Wisconsin at this point. It would be nice to see more recent numbers, though. The last poll of Wisconsin was the Rasmussen poll on the 9th.

Also note that the last poll to show Romney up was PPP before you complain about their supposed bias. And again, these polls are from a period where Romney was at his high water mark. Given that Romney's first debate bounce has somewhat faded in other states, it is likely it has faded in Wisconsin as well. I suspect that a bunch of polls taken today would have Obama at around +5 in Wisconsin.

Now, if you want to talk about Colorado or North Carolina, those are not looking good for Obama. I had previously been reasonably confident in Obama taking Colorado, but now I see it as a true tossup. If Romney had the consistent lead in Colorado that Obama has had in Wisconsin, I'd think it would likely go his direction, but he's only gotten two +1s so far.

I guess we'll just have to see how it all plays out in the end, won't we?  

Apparently the Obama campaign thinks its more than just Romney's wishful thinking that Wisconsin is in play...  Mrs. Obama is making 2 campaign stops there this week and the Pres. made a campaign swing through Wisconsin earlier this month.  The pres., 1st lady do not spend their time campaigning in the last month of the campaign in states that are not in play.

[Ed W]

I feel bad for the people in those swing states.  They're getting carpet bombed with campaign ads. 

Yet here in Oklahoma, we get Mullin vs Wallace.  This is a contest that truly calls for a cage match...."Two men enter!  One man leaves!"

[Townsend]

I feel bad for the people in those swing states.  They're getting carpet bombed with campaign ads. 

Yet here in Oklahoma, we get Mullin vs Wallace.  This is a contest that truly calls for a cage match...."Two men enter!  One man leaves!"

I'm not really concerned if either is able to leave.

[Oil Capital]

The last Wisconsin poll that had Romney up at all was in August. Since then, Rasmussen, PPP, CBS, NBC, and WeAskAmerica have all shown Obama ahead. It is possible, but highly unlikely that Romney is up in Wisconsin at this point. It would be nice to see more recent numbers, though. The last poll of Wisconsin was the Rasmussen poll on the 9th.

Also note that the last poll to show Romney up was PPP before you complain about their supposed bias. And again, these polls are from a period where Romney was at his high water mark. Given that Romney's first debate bounce has somewhat faded in other states, it is likely it has faded in Wisconsin as well. I suspect that a bunch of polls taken today would have Obama at around +5 in Wisconsin.

Marquette University took a poll in Wisconsin October 11-14... Obama at +1.  Margin of error:  3.4.   What should terrify the Obama campaign about this poll is that two weeks earlier (Sept. 27-30), Marquette's poll had Obama at +11.  Guys, like it or not, Wisconsin is in play.

[TylerBGoode]

I feel bad for the people in those swing states.  They're getting carpet bombed with campaign ads. 

Yet here in Oklahoma, we get Mullin vs Wallace.  This is a contest that truly calls for a cage match...."Two men enter!  One man leaves!"

At least their vote means something.

[Teatownclown]

Forget About The Polls, These Are The Numbers That Really Matter In The Presidential Race

http://www.businessinsider.com/electoral-map-romney-obama-paths-to-victory-2012-10





It's a no win situation for RMoney....not enough women backers....

[Oil Capital]

Wishful thinking.

No matter what anyone says on here, I do read Nate Silver's 538.  Once again, over the last two election cycles, he tends to be the closest tracker.  Romney had his big gains after the first presidential election, but now have shown in the last two days to be trending away from it.

But hell, what do I know.  Nate's only use fancy formulas and stuff...you know, that stuff that many Republicans don't know?  Math?

LOL  All of Nate's fancy formulas and stuff must have confused you.  He has Wisconsin listed as "competitive".  Sounds a lot like "in play" to me.  ;-)