Let's talk Electoral College

[RecycleMichael]

(It would be an even worse sign for any campaign to be doing fund-raising stops at this late date.)

Is it really that difficult for you to follow along, or are you just that dishonest? 

Campaigns don't stop fundraising. Many times campaigns even have fundraisers after the election.

You are just wrong.

[Oil Capital]

Campaigns don't stop fundraising. Many times campaigns even have fundraisers after the election.

You are just wrong.

I NEVER said campaigns stop fund-raising.  Stop with the strawmen.  This whole discussion started with your suggesting that Romney and Obama are going to Nevada to raise money, not to do campaign events.   YOU are just wrong.   The reality is Obama and Romney are BOTH doing campaign events in Nevada this week.

[Oil Capital]

Why don't you go over to realclearpolitics.com and click the link that says "latest election 2012 polls" and look for yourself? Then be amazed that Obama is still several points ahead in Ohio and Nevada. "In play" does not mean "could go either way".

I go there multiple times every day.    Why is it so difficult for you to just tell me which states you are referring to?

But just for fun, here is what currently shown for Ohio:

Rassmussen has gone from O +1  last week to TIED today.    Obama moving down
SurveyUSA has gone from O +3 on Oct. 15 to O+3 on Oct 22.   Obama not moving up
PPP has gone from O+5 on Oct. 13 to O+1 on Oct. 20.  Obama moving down
Quinnipiac has gone from O+10 on Sept. 24 to O+5 on Oct. 20.  Obama moving down
Gravis has gone from R+1 on Oct. 10 to TIED on Oct. 19.   Obama moving up.
Fox News has gone from O+7 on Sept. 18 to O+3 on Oct. 18.  Obama moving down.

The RCP graph goes from O+0.8 on Oct. 10 to O+2.1 on October 24. Obama moving up.

[Oil Capital]

Poll Trends in Florida:

Rassmussen went from R+4 on Oct. 11 to R+5 On Oct. 18.  Obama moving down.
Fox News went from O+5 on Sept. 18 to R+3 on Oct. 18.  Obama moving down.
PPP went from R +1 on Oct. 14 to R +1 on Oct 18.  Obama not moving up. (It was O+4 in PPPs prior poll Sep 23)
SurveyUSA went from O+4 on Sept. 9 to O+1 on Oct 18.  Obama moving down.
CNN went from O+4 on Aug 26 to R+1 on Oct. 18. Obama moving down.

The RCP graph goes from R+0.7 on Oct. 9 to R+1.8 on Oct. 23.  Obama moving down.

[RecycleMichael]

I NEVER said campaigns stop fund-raising.  Stop with the strawmen.  This whole discussion started with your suggesting that Romney and Obama are going to Nevada to raise money, not to do campaign events.   YOU are just wrong.   The reality is Obama and Romney are BOTH doing campaign events in Nevada this week.

I was using your own words. My bad.

[nathanm]

That's bizarre. I look at the graph for Ohio and it clearly shows Romney's vote share declining over the past two weeks while Obama's has increased slightly. Don't cherry pick, bud. Same time period in Nevada, Romney's vote share is flat, Obama's has increased. Wisconsin, same time period, both men's vote share has decreased, but Romney's by a larger amount, thus increasing Obama's margin. Colorado, same time period. Romney is slightly ahead, but has not seen an increase in his vote share while Obama has closed the gap. Should I continue?

[Oil Capital]

Let's check Virginia:

Rassmussen goes from R+2 on Oct. 11 to R+3 on Oct. 18.  Obama moving down.
ARG goes from O+2 on Sept. 27 to R+1 on Oct. 14.  Obama moving down.
NBC goes from O+2 on Oct. 1 to R+1 on Oct. 9.  Obama moving down.
Quinnipiac goes from O+4 on Sept. 17 to O+5 on Oct. 9.  Obama moving up.
PPP goes from O+5 on Sept. 16 to O+3 on Oct. 7.  Obama moving down.
WeAskAmerica goes from O+3 on Sept. 17 to R+3 on Oct. 4. Obama moving down.

The RCP graph goes from O+0.3 on Oct. 10 to TIED on Oct. 24.  Obama moving down.

[Oil Capital]

I was using your own words. My bad.

You sir, are a liar.

[RecycleMichael]

Let's check Virginia:

Quinnipiac goes from O+4 on Sept. 17 to O+5 on Oct. 9.  Obama moving down.

Do you need a calculator? Maybe math is not your strong suit. Insulting people seems to be your skill set.

[Oil Capital]

That's bizarre. I look at the graph for Ohio and it clearly shows Romney's vote share declining over the past two weeks while Obama's has increased slightly. Don't cherry pick, bud. Same time period in Nevada, Romney's vote share is flat, Obama's has increased. Wisconsin, same time period, both men's vote share has decreased, but Romney's by a larger amount, thus increasing Obama's margin. Colorado, same time period. Romney is slightly ahead, but has not seen an increase in his vote share while Obama has closed the gap. Should I continue?

No cherry picking here, dude.  I compared all of the recent polls shown on RCP with the prior polls conducted by the same pollster.  If there's a flaw in what I've posted, please share.   The flaw in relying on RCP's graph is that is is comparing one set of polls with a set of polls that is not necessarily the same pollsters/methodologies, etc.  Personally, I'm much more comfortable with my comparison for the purposes of identifying the trends, but both are worth looking at.

[Oil Capital]

Do you need a calculator? Maybe math is not your strong suit. Insulting people seems to be your skill set.

Good catch.  Thanks for bringing that to my attention.  I have corrected the post.

[Oil Capital]

Iowa:

Rassmussen goes from O+2 on Oct. 7 to TIED on Oct. 21.  Obama going down.
PPP goes from O+7 on Sept 26 to R+1 on Oct. 19.  Obama going down.
NBC goes from O+8 on Sept. 18 to O+8 on Oct. 17.  Obama not going up.
WeAskAmerica goes from O+4 pm Sept 27 to O+3 on Oct. 15.  Obama going down.
ARG goes from O+7 on Sept. 23 to TIED on Oct. 14.  Obama going down.

The RCP graph goes from O+3.2 on October 8 to O+2.0 on October 22.  Obama going down.

[nathanm]

No cherry picking here, dude.  I compared all of the recent polls shown on RCP with the prior polls conducted by the same pollster.  If there's a flaw in what I've posted, please share.   The flaw in relying on RCP's graph is that is is comparing one set of polls with a set of polls that is not necessarily the same pollsters/methodologies, etc.  Personally, I'm much more comfortable with my comparison for the purposes of identifying the trends, but both are worth looking at.

So basically you think that taking the mathematical average of all the "recent" polls isn't a good way of capturing the trends in the race? Ok. Needless to say, I strongly disagree. (I prefer to take the median, but the mean is usually close enough anyway) Averaging reduces the amount of noise inherent in any given poll. Statistically speaking, you'll see random fluctuations of 3-4% in the same poll just because of sampling error. If you average out many polls, sampling error is reduced as a proportion of the real signal you're looking for.

Also, as far as I can tell, all the polls this month reported on RCP are likely voter polls. Either way, I think we can both agree that neither candidate is broadly improving their position at present, although Romney clearly improved his standing after the first debate. (How much of that was due to the shift to LV rather than RV numbers being reported, I don't know)

[Oil Capital]

Colorado:

Rassmussen goes from O+1 on Oct. 7 to R+4 on Oct. 21.  Obama moving down
PPP goes from O+6 on Sept. 23 to O+3 on Oct. 18.  Obama moving down.
WeAskAmerica goes from O+3 on Sept. 27 to R+1 on Oct. 15.  Obama moving down.
SurveyUSA goes from O+1 to Sept. 12 to R+1 on Oct. 10.  Obama moving down.
Gravis goes from R+3 on Oct. 4 to O+2 on Oct. 11.  Obama moving up.
ARG goes from O+2 on Sept. 12 to R+4 on Oct. 8.  Obama moving up.
Quinnipiac goes from O+1 on Sept. 1 to R+1 on Oct. 9.  Obama moving up.

The RCP graph goes from R+0.5 on Oct. 9 to R+0.2 on Oct. 23.  Obama moving up.

[Oil Capital]

So basically you think that taking the mathematical average of all the "recent" polls isn't a good way of capturing the trends in the race? Ok. Needless to say, I strongly disagree. (I prefer to take the median, but the mean is usually close enough anyway) Averaging reduces the amount of noise inherent in any given poll. Statistically speaking, you'll see random fluctuations of 3-4% in the same poll just because of sampling error. If you average out many polls, sampling error is reduced as a proportion of the real signal you're looking for.

Also, as far as I can tell, all the polls this month reported on RCP are likely voter polls. Either way, I think we can both agree that neither candidate is broadly improving their position at present, although Romney clearly improved his standing after the first debate. (How much of that was due to the shift to LV rather than RV numbers being reported, I don't know)

I think using the mathematical averages of all recent polls is a good method to get the current state of the race.  I am not a statistician, but for purposes of showing or identifying a trend, it strikes me as flawed to compare one set of polls for one period with a different set of polls for another period.  We can easily apply an average to my group of poll changes to remove the noise inherent in any given poll.  (The flaw in that is that the comparisons are not over the same periods.)   Because I think both methods have flaws, I think it's important to look at both.