Electoral College results guessing game

[heironymouspasparagus]

Someone spends a bit too much time at unskewedpolls.com.

They are saying 311 - 227 in their latest...

[YoungTulsan]

Make your own map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html

My guess:

[BaltimorePoke]

I don't think Obama will lose Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia.  So O: 303 - R: 235

Silver only has Florida as 55.5% Romney, so pretty much a toss up.

[Teatownclown]

They are saying 311 - 227 in their latest...

And there you have it TTC has said 311 all along.

I've also used the word "landslide" .....

[swake]

And there you have it TTC has said 311 all along.

I've also used the word "landslide" .....

I thought you would be going with 420

Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311?

[Gaspar]

I thought you would be going with 420

Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311?

Campaigning at cemeteries?

[cannon_fodder]

The betting houses have Obama favored as low as a 67% favorite and as high as an 87% favorite.  If you really think teak Romney wins you can make quick money trading futures on it.

[Teatownclown]

I thought you would be going with 420

Anyway, Romney or Obama? And if Obama how does he get to 311?

I am...but only in Colorado, Oregon and Washington.

Math.

[Hoss]

I don't think Obama will lose Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia.  So O: 303 - R: 235

Silver only has Florida as 55.5% Romney, so pretty much a toss up.

He actually changed that tonight to Obama 52.5 for Florida, but I say 303 O - 235 R as well.  I don't think it will be higher than that however...

[nathanm]

He actually changed that tonight to Obama 52.5 for Florida, but I say 303 O - 235 R as well.  I don't think it will be higher than that however...

Note that the change isn't due to any new state polls coming in from Florida, but from the latest two national polls which came in at O+1 and O+2. Silver's model, unlike some others, adjusts the state polls to bring them more in line with national polling. When the state polling is basically dead even as it is in Florida, that adjustment can flip a state. PEC just takes the median of state polling and builds an EV count and estimated national popular vote margin from there.

Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset.

[Conan71]

Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset.

Don't worry.  I won't gloat.











Not too much.

[Oil Capital]

Note that the change isn't due to any new state polls coming in from Florida, but from the latest two national polls which came in at O+1 and O+2. Silver's model, unlike some others, adjusts the state polls to bring them more in line with national polling. When the state polling is basically dead even as it is in Florida, that adjustment can flip a state. PEC just takes the median of state polling and builds an EV count and estimated national popular vote margin from there.

Given that basically all of the people predicting based on statistically analyzing the polling data are predicting a fairly certain Obama win, there will be plenty of egg to go around if Romney pulls off the upset.

Doesn't the early voting turnout already suggest that a lot of the polls may have problems with their turnout models?

[Townsend]

Wonder how that's working out for folks?

[Conan71]

Wonder how that's working out for folks?

I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already.

[Townsend]

I can hear the "Romney stole the election" already.

Or "They sure tried to steal the election.  Gotta give 'em props.  They really tried."