Time to predict Mayor's race

[RecycleMichael]

Time for me to predict.

First of all, let me say that this is an almost impossible race for a democrat to win. We are simply a republican state and city.

All the statewide elected officials are republican. The Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Auditor, Attorney General, and secretaries of Education Labor and Insurance are all republican. All six of the Congressmen and both Senators are republican. There are ten state Senators representing Tulsa County and nine are republican. There are 21 state representative representing Tulsa County and sixteen are republicans. Two of the three County Commissioners are republicans as is the County Sheriff. Every person who ran for a judge position last election was a registered republican. Seven of the nine City Councilors representing Tulsa are republican as is the current City Auditor.

Of course you remember that even though Obama won the presidency, every single county in Oklahoma voted for Romney

How can a democrat win in the reddest state and probably the reddest city? I say it is almost impossible.

This race was supposed to be non-partisan but the Tulsa World has put the party affiliation in virtually every story. Bartlett's campaign has tried to connect Taylor with Obama in multiple TV, radio ads and mailers. It was obviously smart to shove party affiliation in the most partisan way to a most partisan audience. The newspaper revealed that Taylor had actually given more money to GW Bush than she had to Obama, but the story appeared on the least read day of the week and was quickly dropped.

This race should not have been partisan. The problems and solutions are not republican or democrat. Potholes and police bear no party affiliation and shouldn't. I have studied city hall most of my life (my mother was the city hall reporter for the Tulsa World when I was growing up and my wife covered city hall when we met twenty years ago). I can't remember a single council or commission decision that started out as partisan.

Enough of my whining.

My prediction is that Taylor wins by the slimmest of margins. She had the best staff (disclaimer that it included my wife), spent the most money, and did the better job at every debate.

This election cycle went on too long. I predict it goes on as long as possible and makes it impossible to predict a winner until late into the evening.  Taylor 50.1% and Bartlett 49.9%.

[Conan71]

Someone on Facebook cited a poll that showed Bartlet (sic) had an 11 point lead on Taylor.  His thinking was that stalkergate was the reason for the sudden surge for Dooey.

It's on the internet so it has to be true.

[heironymouspasparagus]

The local Tulsa lack-of-newspaper showed Dooby with an 11% lead in some poll on Sunday.  Geez.... do we just not learn anything, ever, in this state/city/county??

[patric]

Someone on Facebook cited a poll that showed Bartlet (sic) had an 11 point lead on Taylor.  His thinking was that stalkergate was the reason for the sudden surge for Dooey.

It's on the internet so it has to be true.

In fact, it is on the internet:

http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/griffin/NEWSon6/PDF/1310/Taylor_Tracker.pdf (Stalker with no ID, oh, that's ok, you work for...)

Bartlett should loose the election for his role in the Occupy Tulsa fiasco, but the alternative would be replacing him with someone much worse.

[RecycleMichael]

I am friends with Sooner Pollster Bill Shapard Jr. and sometimes he is accurate. But he is sometimes stunningly wrong. It must be the nature of pollsters.

Last November, he and the Tulsa World said that Vision2 would pass with 58% for, 31% against and 11% undecided. The final vote was 56% against, and 44% for.

56% against and he said 31% against.

He missed it by that much.

[Gaspar]

Really no dog in this hunt, but based on poll #s and the young man I talked to today who was canvasing for Taylor in my neighborhood.

59% Dewey

[heironymouspasparagus]

Well, as much as I dislike Jim Inhofe, it is sad his son died in that plane crash in Owasso on Sunday.  Condolences to the family.

[tulsaboy]

Regular lurker, almost never post.  But I am interested enough to chime in with my (mostly worthless) two cents.  I think that Taylor's fans overemphasize the strength (which is admittedly large) in midtown and choose to ignore the fact that for most folks in south Tulsa and for the folks who don't care too much about downtown, she is not particularly well liked.  That said, I think that for many voters in Tulsa this is a total tossup, with many trying to parse through the mostly mediocre ads to try to determine who will be the lesser of two evils.  I don't have a dog in this hunt, and am not particularly sold on either.  I think that RecycleMichael is absolutely right about the difficulty a democrat will have in the near future winning much of anything in Oklahoma.  For the moment, it's just the way it is.  If ever there was a race and if ever there was a candidate, it was this one with Kathy Taylor.  I just don't think that she can overcome the simple math.  I don't think the Tulsa World/Sooner Poll numbers are anywhere close, though, as I can't fathom an 11 point win for Dewey.  I think that he wins it 53-47, with conservative Republicans grudgingly pushing Dewey over the top.  I don't think KT's intern, nor the response to that situation from the campaign, helped her at all with undecideds.  I predict that Dewey wins tomorrow night, and GT Bynum's campaign starts shortly after...

[carltonplace]

Dewey's claim that he should be re-elected for the sake of consistency is laughable. Why can't he dooey better than that?

[Gaspar]

The Taylor canvassers were out in our neighborhood in force yesterday.  Several vehicles with several kids going house to house.  I talked to one of the 20somthings handing out signs and cards for KT.  Young blond kid who had no idea how to sell the candidate.  I asked him to tell me about Kathy Taylor's platform, and he read off of the door hanger and tried to explain how Dewey should loose because he "Didn't know about the trash."  I asked him "what" he didn't know about the trash, and he gave me a deer-in-the-headlights look.  I think he wanted to run.  "Um, they burned it."  At that point it was time for him to leave.

This morning driving through the hood to work, I didn't see a single KT sign.  Lots of Dewey and KathyQuit.com signs but no KT, so I guess they weren't really successful with the Southies.

[carltonplace]

I had the same experience with a Dewey door hangar at my mom's house. She could not give me details about her candidate's platform and she was clearly just charged with getting the material onto the door knobs.

[sgrizzle]

The Taylor canvassers were out in our neighborhood in force yesterday.  Several vehicles with several kids going house to house.  I talked to one of the 20somthings handing out signs and cards for KT.  Young blond kid who had no idea how to sell the candidate.  I asked him to tell me about Kathy Taylor's platform, and he read off of the door hanger and tried to explain how Dewey should loose because he "Didn't know about the trash."  I asked him "what" he didn't know about the trash, and he gave me a deer-in-the-headlights look.  I think he wanted to run.  "Um, they burned it."  At that point it was time for him to leave.

This morning driving through the hood to work, I didn't see a single KT sign.  Lots of Dewey and KathyQuit.com signs but no KT, so I guess they weren't really successful with the Southies.

Kathy campaign won't allow you to put signs in the right-of-way so you should only see Dewey signs illegally installed.

[Gaspar]

Kathy campaign won't allow you to put signs in the right-of-way so you should only see Dewey signs illegally installed.

Down by my office on about 66th & Sheridan there is a Dewey sign in the right-of-way in front of a polling place right next to the "Vote Here" sign. . . almost touching it. 

[AquaMan]

How many of you solid Republican Conservatives did I see at the Veteran's Parade yesterday? The Marine contingent was pretty wild, the Shriners were crazy, and the Memorial, Webster and McClain bands were great. Broken Arrow band was good too... clean, straight and traditional. No Southie bands. It was pretty fun and interesting to watch the crowd and the special guests on the reviewing stand. I really think Kathy and Dewey genuinely dislike each other. They passed within inches and didn't even make eye contact.

Dewey invited his good pal Brightenstein who came in a badge filled flight jacket. Upon close inspection they weren't badges earned in the field. Mostly veterans organizations and supporters. They were the darlings of the old vets.

Kathy made her way down to the crowds around the reviewing stand to talk with the numerous school children and non celebrity voters. They loved her. It was pretty telling actually. Dewey and 'Stein didn't even look at the crowd. Some pretty weird people in the crowd too. Made me wonder about security.

I'll stick with my 50.7 for KT even though RM pulled a "price is right" strategy by subtracting a few tenths percent. I still predict a low turnout (weather and campaign fatigue) and surprisingly, a slim win for the propositions. 

[Gaspar]

How many of you solid Republican Conservatives did I see at the Veteran's Parade yesterday? The Marine contingent was pretty wild, the Shriners were crazy, and the Memorial, Webster and McClain bands were great. Broken Arrow band was good too... clean, straight and traditional. No Southie bands. It was pretty fun and interesting to watch the crowd and the special guests on the reviewing stand. I really think Kathy and Dewey genuinely dislike each other. They passed within inches and didn't even make eye contact.

Dewey invited his good pal Brightenstein who came in a badge filled flight jacket. Upon close inspection they weren't badges earned in the field. Mostly veterans organizations and supporters. They were the darlings of the old vets.

Kathy made her way down to the crowds around the reviewing stand to talk with the numerous school children and non celebrity voters. They loved her. It was pretty telling actually. Dewey and 'Stein didn't even look at the crowd. Some pretty weird people in the crowd too. Made me wonder about security.

I'll stick with my 50.7 for KT even though RM pulled a "price is right" strategy by subtracting a few tenths percent. I still predict a low turnout (weather and campaign fatigue) and surprisingly, a slim win for the propositions. 

Big support for the propositions out south for most Republicans and the Democrat (at least from the people I've talked to).  Very good size turnout at my polling place.  I hadn't expected to stand in line. Not much KT support out here, so I don't think she will pull many Southie votes.