South Tulsa is under served

[RecycleMichael]

Much of the information is found here...

http://www.incog.org/Transportation/demographics.htm

[TheArtist]

TheArtist - Do you know where I could find the data on the lane miles per population you referenced?  Also, you mentioned the recommended changes from the company the city hired, do you know what those are or could you point me in the direction of those recommendations?  

Thanks for your help

I will have to do a little digging myself.  I believe the company was KPMG that helped with the Plani-Tulsa New Comprehensive Plan.  What's exciting is that according to the timeline, the new Zoning changes outlined in the new Comprehensive Plan, are supposed to be approved spring of this year!  Who wants to lay odds on that actually happening?

http://www.planitulsa.org/plan

I believe there are some points starting on pg. 22 http://www.planitulsa.org/files/Strategic-Plan-web-030810.pdf

That could lead to some of their metrics.  

Some other interesting points, (My bold).



"However, through PLANiTULSA's
public input process, Tulsans expressed
significant support for expanding the range
of transportation options.
The land use and economic portions of
this plan indicate that in many areas of town,
the transportation system defines and often
limits neighborhood development and hinders
economic opportunities.

Roads with
multiple wide lanes, large intersections, and relatively few
pedestrian amenities (i.e. wide sidewalks, medians with
trees, parallel parking, and short intersection crossings) are
not conducive to walking, biking, or transit and continue
to foster a land development pattern that is dependent on
automobile access. The land use and economic development
priorities found in Our Vision For Tulsa depend on a
transportation system that supports mixed-use places, transit,
and increased viability of alternative modes.


Our Vision for Tulsa's transportation strategy prescribes a
departure from the traditional transportation life cycle that
emphasizes mitigating traffic congestion with automobile
capacity improvements in the form of additional lanes
or building new roads. This traditional process leads to a
perpetual need for improvements to the roadways system.
The practice of making roadway improvements without
consideration of potential land use changes has resulted in
a land development pattern that is automobile-centric and
costly in terms of maintenance and quality of life for the
City of Tulsa.

Transit expansion is key to realizing Our Vision for
Tulsa because it enables the City to reduce expenditures
without extending infrastructure and enables denser
development because of a reduced need for parking and
wide roadways. Transit should be included as an integral
component of the city's economic development strategy,
which includes the creation of new and sustainable centers
and neighborhoods. Accordingly, equitable and sustained
transit funding, through instruments separate from transit
fares, must be identified for the transit system to grow.


In the past, the transportation project development
process has relied solely upon the addition of
automobile capacity via new lane miles, grade
separations and by-pass roads. The PLANiTULSA
plan recommends land use and transportation policies
and practices that will enhance the viability of
transit, walking and biking as travel modes.

Key Actions
• With INCOG staff, coordinate revisions to the
regional travel demand model to adopt demographic
projection stated in Our Vision for Tulsa.
• Adopt the Sustainable Network Policy, including
economic and quality of life metrics, from
Our Vision for Tulsa, to complement INCOG's
transportation decision-making process and project
selection criteria.
• Use the Urban Corridor Planning Process to
inform the INCOG and City of Tulsa project
development processes.


Our Vision for Tulsa emphasizes new economic
opportunities and population growth through the
development and re-development of walkable new
urban centers. Connecting regional assets (parks,
cultural sites and educational facilities), employment
centers and existing neighborhoods to these new centers
will be a crucial part of implementing the plan. The
plan defines a multi-modal roadway system and a
transit network that can extend the walking and biking
reach of commuters and recreational riders.

[Conan71]

I'm reviving this topic after talking to a friend yesterday whose girlfriend ended up turning down a promotion that would have moved them to Austin later this summer.  They went down on Friday and cut the trip short on Saturday after looking at the dismal housing options available to them on a $350,000 budget.  The houses they looked at in that range were in sketchy areas and not much square footage for the money.  They were also as put-off by the horrible traffic congestion there as I was on my last visit.

He said anything with any sort of space in a nice area is simply out of reach and the real estate agent they were looking at properties with advised them that most good property prospects are selling above asking price.

This is one reason why explosive growth is bad, a company might miss out on really good prospects for employees if someone is averse to long commute times and can't afford quality housing in the market.  It over-inflates real estate prices, and this is one way bubbles are created that force people into a higher monthly house payment or rent payment that they may not be comfortable with. 

[TheArtist]

I'm reviving this topic after talking to a friend yesterday whose girlfriend ended up turning down a promotion that would have moved them to Austin later this summer.  They went down on Friday and cut the trip short on Saturday after looking at the dismal housing options available to them on a $350,000 budget.  The houses they looked at in that range were in sketchy areas and not much square footage for the money.  They were also as put-off by the horrible traffic congestion there as I was on my last visit.

He said anything with any sort of space in a nice area is simply out of reach and the real estate agent they were looking at properties with advised them that most good property prospects are selling above asking price.

This is one reason why explosive growth is bad, a company might miss out on really good prospects for employees if someone is averse to long commute times and can't afford quality housing in the market.  It over-inflates real estate prices, and this is one way bubbles are created that force people into a higher monthly house payment or rent payment that they may not be comfortable with.  

Perhaps your friend should try Detroit.  Great suburbs there and extremely affordable housing.  Had a friend mention that you could get a small mansion there at incredibly affordable prices. They also have high crime and anemic growth rates like Tulsa so she would feel right at home.

5 Year Private Sector Job Growth
(From Business Journals "Oct 2013 Economic Index") 


OKC                +3.29%
Salt Lake City  +2.96
Nashville         +7.92
Austin             +10.9%
Denver           +2.01%
Charlotte        +1.07%
Little Rock       -0.25%
Jacksonville     -0.82%
Dallas-FW        +5.63%
Columbus       +3.40%
Buffalo NY       +1.11%
Omaha            -0.36%
Detroit             -1.10%
Tulsa               -3.30%

[Cats Cats Cats]

I'm reviving this topic after talking to a friend yesterday whose girlfriend ended up turning down a promotion that would have moved them to Austin later this summer.  They went down on Friday and cut the trip short on Saturday after looking at the dismal housing options available to them on a $350,000 budget.  The houses they looked at in that range were in sketchy areas and not much square footage for the money.  They were also as put-off by the horrible traffic congestion there as I was on my last visit.

He said anything with any sort of space in a nice area is simply out of reach and the real estate agent they were looking at properties with advised them that most good property prospects are selling above asking price.

This is one reason why explosive growth is bad, a company might miss out on really good prospects for employees if someone is averse to long commute times and can't afford quality housing in the market.  It over-inflates real estate prices, and this is one way bubbles are created that force people into a higher monthly house payment or rent payment that they may not be comfortable with. 

I've been going to Austin here and there over the last 5 years.  I have to say the traffic is starting to be exactly like Dallas' traffic.

[rebound]

I'm reviving this topic after talking to a friend yesterday whose girlfriend ended up turning down a promotion that would have moved them to Austin later this summer.  They went down on Friday and cut the trip short on Saturday after looking at the dismal housing options available to them on a $350,000 budget.  The houses they looked at in that range were in sketchy areas and not much square footage for the money.  They were also as put-off by the horrible traffic congestion there as I was on my last visit.

He said anything with any sort of space in a nice area is simply out of reach and the real estate agent they were looking at properties with advised them that most good property prospects are selling above asking price.

This is one reason why explosive growth is bad, a company might miss out on really good prospects for employees if someone is averse to long commute times and can't afford quality housing in the market.  It over-inflates real estate prices, and this is one way bubbles are created that force people into a higher monthly house payment or rent payment that they may not be comfortable with. 

I'd need to know a lot more about the situation before I'd give a lot of weight to a single example.  I don't really want to know the specifics, it's just that there are a lot of factors that influence a decision to move, such as:

- Are there children involved?  (This is huge, and definitely affect where a person would live.)   
- Where would she be working? (Downtown?  North Austin? etc...)
- Thinking in terms of minutes, not miles, what type of commute would be too much?
- Define "sketchy".  Are we talking crime, or simply a more bohemian style? (There are ton of "eclectic" neighborhoods down there that are perfectly safe.)
- Is she currently at suburbanite, or a mid-towner?
- etc...

But you're right,  If she really does/did have a hard cap of $350K, it would be very difficult to find anything in "Austin proper".   She'd probably need to look to the suburbs, and then of course you hit traffic, etc.   On the other hand, if there are no kids involved, and she could bump up to $400K, that would open up quite a few options.  But the high home prices are simply indicative that a lot of people want to live there,  particularly in the hip areas like SOCO, etc.   

The company in question will find another, probably equally as qualified person, who will make that move because they will decide it is worth the extra money and hassle just to live there.  I had a similar experience "back in the day", when I was single and living in Little Rock and hating it, and my theoretical destination was Denver (or in that area).  In my case it wasn't housing costs (I was a single guy, and would have lived in a hovel) but rather actual compensation.   I had several offers, but none in the range I was already making at the time. I finally asked a Denver local recruiter about it, and he said "It's Denver.  Everybody wants to move here.  The companies don't have to pay as much because people will take a hit just to move here."   I ended up taking a job in Dallas instead, but to this day I wonder if I should have pulled the trigger and moved to where I really wanted to be, regardless of whether it was the most practical decision.

[Conan71]

I've been going to Austin here and there over the last 5 years.  I have to say the traffic is starting to be exactly like Dallas' traffic.

I had been to Austin the spring of '07, '09, and again in '13.  I was really shocked how much more Dallas-like the traffic was between '09 and '13.  I couldn't imagine living in Georgetown and working south of downtown.

Obviously, I can't know every single detail of what influenced their decision to bolt instead of probing further, they might both have simple fear of the unknown, but the housing situation seemed to be the focal point of why they headed back early.  People who have an "ideal" place they'd like to live sometimes find out it's not all it's cracked up to be when you are faced with actually moving there.  My friend said there were vagrants hanging out around the area of one of the homes they looked at and the other seemed to have a lot of unemployed young men with neck tattoos wandering around.

I am aware one more factor was my friend would be going down without a job so they really couldn't count on an income from him yet to factor in a housing budget until he had a job.  So, of course, that was a factor.

This brought up the similar conversation I had with my son-in-law a few weeks ago about a friend of their family who was facing a frustrating bidding war on buying a condo in Austin because the price is a moving target.  Condo developers know there is a huge demand and they are taking advantage of it.  People want housing bad enough there, they are willing to pay, in some cases, $100K over asking price just to buy a friggin' condo.  

My wife and I have been pondering moving to Pagosa Springs, Colorado for some time.  We were even looking at a few business opportunities out there pretty close up to a few months ago when we went back out in November.  Unless you luck into a very rare opportunity to work for someone else at a professional level income, you either end up working a couple of service industry jobs to make ends meet and live in a total sh!t dump or you create or purchase a business to make it there.  After talking to business owners who didn't know that we were looking to move and being willing to listen with an open mind as to the realities of living there and owning a business there, it became obvious that we might want to think of it again in a few years when we can think of it as more of a retirement situation.  It would be a slower pace of life, but along with that you do sacrifice some things you have in a city the size of Tulsa.

Sure, someone will eventually take that position that my friend's GF passed on or maybe someone else will jump on it without a second thought.  I'm simply making the point that the 10+% private sector job growth rate that Artist pointed out Austin is experiencing isn't for everyone, that it creates some potentially serious financial consequences when that over-heated market cools down and people are $100 or $200K upside down in their property or when their cush job gets RIF'd and they can no longer afford the payment.

[SXSW]

I have a friend moving to Tulsa from Denver for the same reasons.  He has never lived in Tulsa but in Norman and OKC before Denver.  He was frustrated with high cost of living and worsening traffic.  He couldn't afford a house in central Denver but is looking at buying one in Tulsa that is newer, twice the size and with a pool only a 5 min from his office in south Tulsa.  Salary is about the same but obviously goes further in Tulsa.  He said he was okay with the trade off between hiking/skiing in the mountains and the close proximity to lakes for boating in Tulsa.

Obviously the fastest growing cities are growing at such a pace for a reason and people are lined up to replace that job in Austin or my friend's job in Denver.  But depending on your situation Tulsa can be a very easy place to live, and I worry that as people figure that out growth will accelerate and we'll be facing some of the same issues.  Planning for this growth should be a much higher priority, especially in the areas of transportation and education.  Higher growth could help with continuing downtown and surrounding urban development, and more jobs could bring a wider variety of retail and nonstop flights which would be nice.

[Conan71]

Lest anyone think I'm anti-growth, I'm not.  I don't care for explosive growth which over-burdens the resources of an area and creates unsustainable economic bubbles. 

Colorado Springs went through a similar metamorphosis in the late 1990's when tech companies were relocating there from Silicon Valley due to- you guessed it- escalating cost of living due to explosive growth that was making it harder to attract really good young talent to the area.  Locating at the "base" of the mountains was pretty attractive and it wasn't necessary to pay quite as much to attract potential employees there. 

I'd pick COS over DEN any day.

[TheArtist]

I don't advocate for growth of the kind like you see in Austin, but would like to see something in the 3% range for Tulsa.  Funny, if on the national level we had job/population growth of the sort Tulsa has (though admirable unemployment rates for sure), high poverty and crime rates, etc. people would be saying the President, etc. is a failure and the national economy is in a bad spot and something must be done.  But here if we have 1% growth or less we are doing just fine. 

Anyone have any experience or heard anything about Salt Lake City?  They seem to be growing quite robustly but seem to be taking a very different growth model with a large amount of TOD type development and rail transit.

 

[Conan71]

I don't advocate for growth of the kind like you see in Austin, but would like to see something in the 3% range for Tulsa.  Funny, if on the national level we had job/population growth of the sort Tulsa has (though admirable unemployment rates for sure), high poverty and crime rates, etc. people would be saying the President, etc. is a failure and the national economy is in a bad spot and something must be done.  But here if we have 1% growth or less we are doing just fine.  

Anyone have any experience or heard anything about Salt Lake City?  They seem to be growing quite robustly but seem to be taking a very different growth model with a large amount of TOD type development and rail transit.

If oil companies hadn't seen fit to move their accounting and administrative operations to Houston, I'm pretty sure we'd see the more marked growth.  If Tulsa could attract more people for the never-ending shortage of employees for fabrication and welding jobs, it might show up as 2-3% growth.  Unfortunately, people seem less inclined to move away from home in search of work than they were even 30 years ago.  One exception seems to be North Dakota for oil jobs but they have really bad housing shortages along the lines of Austin, and my understanding is housing costs are astronomical as a result, so $80-$90K per year oil field jobs aren't going as far as they would in, say, Woodward, Oklahoma.  Seems I read last week that Woodward is the fastest or one of the fastest growing cities in Oklahoma.

[SXSW]

Tulsa is just far enough from the current major oil plays to partially benefit from that growth (existing companies with operations in those areas are doing well) but not close enough to see the type of growth that is affecting North Dakota, West Texas and western Oklahoma.  You also see that in the metro's growth just in the past year, which is higher than previous years (2010-2013 metro growth is 2.57%).  Tulsa's companies and geographic position generally favor natural gas development over oil so when that finally sees growth I think Tulsa will see more as well.  Though Tulsa's position as a midstream hub has led to increased growth thanks to mostly oil transport and storage.  Advanced manufacturing and financial services are areas that could grow more in coming years.

However the energy sector is not as big in Tulsa as in comparable cities experiencing huge growth thanks to the current oil boom, like Houston and Midland.  It is bigger in OKC and their higher growth rate reflects that.  Tulsa has an aerospace industry that has been sluggish, and AA has been either downsizing or stagnant.  Telecommunications, once the driver of the Tulsa economy in the 90's, hasn't been a big growth engine.  Technology and research has been picking up but the area is not enough of a higher education center to be a hotbed.  

[heironymouspasparagus]

If Tulsa could attract more people for the never-ending shortage of employees for fabrication and welding jobs, at half price hourly wages, it might show up as 2-3% growth.  

Fixed it for you....put the clause that explains the situation completely, rather than a Fox News half-information sound bite....


Average in Tulsa - $28,000 / year.  About $14 an hour-ish.  And yeah, I have seen some of the ads that promise 40k a year.  Makes me wonder how much overtime that involves...?

I have done welding in Tulsa decades ago and gotten $10.  So welding seems to be a new "minimum wage" arena...where the average in real terms is going down....

http://www.indeed.com/salary/q-Welder-l-Tulsa,-OK.html

[AquaMan]

We believe in the law of supply and demand in this country because it suits us to do so. When it doesn't suit us we ignore it. I spoke with a relative in OKC whose company is having the same problem Conan has described in finding welders, fabricators and skilled manual labor in general.

I suggested he pay more in salary for these guys and he said they were already paying them $30K per year. Then pay $35K and offer some benefits I suggested. He said his employer is not going to pay that much for welders/fabricators. OK, then start your own school and train them yourself and get the government to subsidize the process, contract with them for two years to make sure you aren't training for other companies and then write it off as expense of doing business I countered. We don't want to do that he replied. Too expensive and time consuming.

What they want to do is whine about the shortage created by an imbalance of supply and demand but ignore the obvious solutions because of the long standing class distinctions. The same thing is happening throughout manual labor jobs that no one wants or can do anymore except non wasp's.

[Conan71]

Fixed it for you....put the clause that explains the situation completely, rather than a Fox News half-information sound bite....


Average in Tulsa - $28,000 / year.  About $14 an hour-ish.  And yeah, I have seen some of the ads that promise 40k a year.  Makes me wonder how much overtime that involves...?

I have done welding in Tulsa decades ago and gotten $10.  So welding seems to be a new "minimum wage" arena...where the average in real terms is going down....

http://www.indeed.com/salary/q-Welder-l-Tulsa,-OK.html

Half-information sound bite?  I work in the industry.  Stick to things you actually know something about instead of expelling methane into topics you have no recent knowledge of.

It's simple: just like medical professionals, simply not enough skilled ones to go around.