Ukraine

[rebound]

Are those Gvozdika-type mobile howitzers?  Best I could do on short notice:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S1_Gvozdika

Update:  Just now saw that they guns were identified on the pic.  didn't consciously see that last time. It's amazing what I can remember when somebody already gives me the answer...

[swake]

Russia is now backed by China.

Russia is moving long range artillery into Ukraine today (CNN thinks they are tanks   )

2S1 Gvozdikas

How long do you think it will take before President Obama claims Russia is "on the wrong side of history" and shakes his finger?

So should we scramble jets and light up these 40 year old relics? Would that be better?

[guido911]

We are really getting serious now. We just canceled the official delegation to the Sochi paralympics.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/sochi/2014/03/03/united-states-official-delegation-sochi-paralympics/5976875/

Welcome back Carter...

[cannon_fodder]

FWIW, those mobile artillery pieces were designed in the 60s and production ceased with the fall of the Soviet Union.  Ironically, Russia has ~600 of them, while the Ukraine has nearly 650.  So if those things win wars, Ukraine has this in the bank.

I checked with Moscow Molly, and she said that is Mobile Peace Artillery, not mobile artillery pieces.  We just had it mixed up with out crazy talk.  So nothing to see here people.  Move along.  The actual party line from Russia is that the Russian invasion is to "preserver democracy", provide stability, save the people of the Ukraine, and protect Russian speaking Ukrainians.  "We are from the Red Army, and we are here to help" said no one ever. Seriously, Russia invading Ukraine to protect civil rights (while censoring the internet and shutting down voices of contention) would be like Obama confiscating firearms to protect the second amendment.  It's just a dumb excuse.  see, for example, the Russian genocide in the Ukraine between WWI and WWII, during WWII, and after WWII.  Well, pretty much anytime Russia controlled the Ukraine looking at it historically.

Russia reportedly has 16k troops in the Crimea, has now occupied the port, and taken the border crossings after Ukrainian boarder patrol had the nerve to try and stop unmarked masked gunmen from crossing the boarder on military equipment. BUT - according to Russia, all this is being done in accordance with the treaty governing Russian troops in the Crimea.  If you believe Russia had ~10k troops massed on the Ukraine's, had ships in position, and special forces on the ground ahead of all these moves because it wants to "reserve democracy,"  I have a huge reserve of bit coins I can email to you in exchange for cash.

Insert Quote
I don't consider myself an isolationist but I feel a tad war weary. 

I wonder if the costs of getting militarily involved is wise.

Said everyone when Germany occupied the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia in order to protect the German speaking civilians as well as their interests. 

Seriously, Russia has occupied South Ossetia and Obkhazia, provinces of Georgia, for five years.  A country that was nearly a NATO member before Russia invaded them.  Obkhazia is recognized by the UN and the US as part of Georgia, but, backed by Russia, a minority group has been steadily expelling anyone not them and not Russian.  Backed by Russia (which issues Russian passports in the province), the province is no longer government by Georgia.  It lies a few miles from Sochi - but I never heard about a "disputed territory" a few miles from the Olympics. 

There are native Russian speakers in nearly all of the post-soviet empire.  Funny thing when you kill or deport the native population and/or dictate a language as THE language - the mandated language tends to stick around for a while (ask the next Native American you meet to speak their language).   Putin has moved to take about a fifth of Georgia and a chunk of the Ukraine in a period of 5 years.  What's next?

LATVIA has 55% Russian speakers
MOLDOVA, ESTONIA and ARMENIA each have over 35%
LITHUANIA has 20%

Can Putin protect their democracy too?

History has taught us that the more you let a tyrant get away with, the more they will take.  Putin is a tyrant.  He has gotten away with too much already and is getting more and more bold. 

Ruin the Russian economy.  Destroy the oligarchs.  Russia cannot embargo their oil or they go broke in a month.  They don't have the military to start a real shooting war and nuclear war is insane.  The USA spends more in 6 weeks on military than the Russians spend all year.

Their economy dropped 12% today.  It will drop more tomorrow.  Their economy is a shill waiting to die.  It's time to choke the hell out of it until Putin backs down, then paint him as weak and prop up his opposition.  CIA money to all groups opposing Putin, make his life hell.  If Russians are good at anything, its ruining their own country.

/this is why you don't do foreign policy while angry

[guido911]

I don't consider myself an isolationist but I feel a tad war weary. 

I wonder if the costs of getting militarily involved is wise.

I am with T on this. Especially since we refused to help the Iran opposition when it was going through democracy pains a few years ago. My suggestion, let's keep this between government leaders: Vitali "Dr. Ironfist" Klitschko v. Vlad "Bareback" Putin.  Hope Putin tries to get close to Vitali and try his judo...

[cannon_fodder]

This isn't internal politics in a country with whom we have no diplomatic relations.  This is Tsarist Russia invading a country that has openly stated they want to be a NATO ally.

I don't get it.

If we do nothing here, then what is the line? Is there one?

Russia, China and the USA are vying for allies.  Why would anyone choose the USA and the west if you can literally be invaded and we don't live up to treaties? Go join Cuba, Venezuela, north Korea, Iran and Syria.  They have allies that will actually support them (and their violations of human rights).

Hey China, go take Taiwan.

[TheArtist]

50% of Russia's federal budget comes from oil and gas sales. We can certainly hurt them badly there. Also cut off western banking and travel visas. We have no need to get into a war.

Your still thinking like a westerner with western values and applying those values and thoughts to people who do not think like you.

He will love that as they ramp up the propaganda machine to point out to the Russians how bad the West is for hurting the people of Russia like this when all they were trying to do was protect other Russians in Ukrane.  They will rally behind him and those that don't will be struck down.  It won't be Putin hurting the Russian economy, it will be the West.  And they will hate us for it.  Bunch of angry hurting bullies, thumping their chests and pointing at us for the cause of their troubles.  

If the West had shown and mobilized major force, that could have given Putin a way to back out.  We wouldn't have had to use it either way. But it could have given him a way out.  Almost as much as he has built his own mess, he is a product of circumstances as well.  Kind of "It takes two to tango."  They think in "macho tough" terms.  And it doesn't matter if you really are stronger than him, if the bully puffs himself up and makes you back down, he wins the day and takes the prize.

[swake]

Your still thinking like a westerner with western values and applying those values and thoughts to people who do not think like you.

He will love that as they ramp up the propaganda machine to point out to the Russians how bad the West is for hurting the people of Russia like this when all they were trying to do was protect other Russians in Ukrane.  They will rally behind him and those that don't will be struck down.  It won't be Putin hurting the Russian economy, it will be the West.  And they will hate us for it.  Bunch of angry hurting bullies, thumping their chests and pointing at us for the cause of their troubles.  

If the West had shown and mobilized major force, that could have given Putin a way to back out.  We wouldn't have had to use it either way. But it could have given him a way out.  Almost as much as he has built his own mess, he is a product of circumstances as well.  Kind of "It takes two to tango."  They think in "macho tough" terms.  And it doesn't matter if you really are stronger than him, if the bully puffs himself up and makes you back down, he wins the day and takes the prize.

Quit thinking in cold war terms.

You misunderstand the Russian state and economy. It's basically like a mafia run country. You don't have to hurt the population, Russian leadership doesn't care about those sheep anyway. You have to hurt the oligarchs, the ruling class. And that you can do pretty quickly. Cut off western banking, cut the flow of money into the country and don't allow them into the west.

[Rookie Okie]

They will rally behind him and those that don't will be struck down.  It won't be Putin hurting the Russian economy, it will be the West.  And they will hate us for it.  Bunch of angry hurting bullies, thumping their chests and pointing at us for the cause of their troubles.  

Given the fact that a country that size is 50% dependent on oil and gas, it won't take long before they are seriously hurting without the revenue.  It's just like knocking the knees from under a wobbly 500 lb giant.  He's going down pretty fast.

He can use whatever propaganda he chooses because long term it won't be effective.  The Russian people will not want to hear who is to blame, they'll be pi$$ed at him for allowing the economy to falter when he could have chosen otherwise.  The Russian standard of living albeit not great by any Western measures is certainly better than it was throughout the Cold War when it was totally all about sacrifice for the state.  The Russian citizens today will not be comfortable reverting back to the abject poverty conditions that defined their existence only a generation or two ago (especially those who weren't old enough to have suffered through the worst of those times).  So it won't be a surprise if Putin is ultimately unsuccessful in maintaining unity and widespread support among his own citizens throughout the process.

This is not yours and my daddy's Cold War anymore.  The new weapons of choice are much more destructive than the conventional, and guess what, they need not be deployed on a battlefield.

[guido911]

I do not get you CF and other interventionalists. We had the authority of the UN/international law to go after Saddam in 2003. We had massive support in the international community, we were going after a guy that harassed our planes in the no fly zone, gassed his own people, was a state sponsor of terror, etc.  Were you folks sitting on your high horses about intervening then? How about today?

I would like to think no one on this board is a bigger supporter of Ukraine me. I am just not ready to send our soldiers to fight that war yet. I also do not support the idea of spending millions of dollars on a bluff. 

[guido911]

A little more from our leader:

[dbacksfan 2.0]

So is this part of the US flexibility program?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/barackobama/9168669/Barack-Obama-defends-Dmitry-Medvedev-microphone-gaffe.html

We told Medvedev that we would be more flexible after the election, and Medvedev said he would relay it to Vlad.

[Gaspar]

Obama:
Putin: Consistant

No one knows what our foreign policy is. Are we interventionist?  Are we participants in international treaty and law?

People typically know what to expect from a leader, because he/she typically has some consiatancy in action.  If that is the case, the world should expect what they saw in Syria.

[AquaMan]

Swake and Rookie Okie.....new world thinking. You manipulate your enemies by controlling the flow of commodities, money and fuel. War is useless in a technological, digital age.

Artist, Gas and Guido.....old world thinking. Reality is what you make it. Criticism, public relations, and team are all that matters. Chauvinism rules, war inevitable. Irony. (Artist, bullying a macho bully will make him back down and give us credibility? Ever been to country bars much?)

CF......passion, honor and intelligence. Return to Kennedy era values and thinking. Man to man. Attractive.

I have to go with Putin having made a blunder that in time will destroy him and/or his country. All war is economic in its origins. It then follows that economics is the best preventative/prescription for war.

[Gaspar]

Swake and Rookie Okie.....new world thinking. You manipulate your enemies by controlling the flow of commodities, money and fuel. War is useless in a technological, digital age.

Artist, Gas and Guido.....old world thinking. Reality is what you make it. Criticism, public relations, and team are all that matters. Chauvinism rules, war inevitable. Irony. (Artist, bullying a macho bully will make him back down and give us credibility? Ever been to country bars much?)

CF......passion, honor and intelligence. Return to Kennedy era values and thinking. Man to man. Attractive.

I have to go with Putin having made a blunder that in time will destroy him and/or his country. All war is economic in its origins. It then follows that economics is the best preventative/prescription for war.

I don't think we should get involved.  I just think we should make that intension clear.  Our greatest weapon is the privilege of trading with us. When backed up by an impenetrable and fearsome defense, that is all we should need.  Attack us, and die, attack our friends and die economically.  Learn to survive peacefully with us or without us, but don't provoke us.

Unfortunately fence-sitting hurt us.  Putin has the best hand currently because he knows Obama is going to waver like a reed, and confront this with rhetoric instead of action.  That hurts because our markets will pay the price, and our trading partners will become uneasy as to which side they feel safer dealing with.

China is giggling.