Dewey weighs in on Syrian refugees

[Ed W]

From Tulsa's Mayor
https://www.facebook.com/MayorBartlett/posts/971193069607379

Dewey says he's drafting a letter to President Obama saying that Syrian refugees are not wanted in Tulsa. Let's try to remember that these are the people trying to escape from terrorists who beheaded a 9 year old girl, killed dozens in Paris, and will undoubtedly kill again.

Let's put this in a realistic perspective. We're more at risk driving to work or simply taking a shower compared to the risk of being killed or injured by terrorists. It's not a small difference. It's orders of magnitude. Yet no one seriously suggests we ban either motor vehicles or bathing to mitigate the risk.

"We are not descended from fearful men"....Edward R. Murrow

[Townsend]

Something/someone broke the mayor's brain

[Townsend]

Ah...

Gov. Mary Fallin calls on president to suspend resettlement of Syrian refugees in U.S.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/capitol_report/gov-mary-fallin-calls-on-president-to-suspend-resettlement-of/article_190d3ca5-cb03-556a-a74e-cb441129eab3.html

OKLAHOMA CITY — Gov. Mary Fallin on Monday urged President Barack Obama to suspend accepting Syrian refugees into the United States after a state lawmaker claimed dozens of the refugees had been resettled in Jenks.

"The Obama administration needs to assure the public that the background checks they are doing are rigorous, and that American lives will not be endangered in the process," Fallin in a press release. "Until then, I call on the Obama administration to suspend any Syrian refugees into the United States. During these uncertain times, the Obama administration needs to make sure those entering the United States are not terrorists."

The governor said she has confidence in the two refugee processing affiliates in the state. Catholic Charities in Oklahoma City and Catholic Charities in Tulsa have the responsibility of placing refugees in the state.

"Oklahomans have welcomed refugees escaping religious persecution for many years and will continue to do so," Fallin said.

Only three Syrian refugees have been placed in Jenks since 2012, according to Governor's Office.

The three Syrian refugees, ages 50, 40 and 14, were brought to Jenks to live with family members.

State Rep. John Bennett, R-Sallisaw, put the number at dozens in a weekend press release calling on the governor "to suspend Oklahoma's effort in resettling Syrian refugees" in the state.
Fallin's office was inundated with calls on Monday from people concerned about Syrian refugees following the Paris attacks on Friday and Bennett's press release.

Meanwhile, governors from Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Texas said they would not allow Syrians to live in their states.

[Conan71]

Here's why other states are asking to temporarily stop accepting refugees:

Updated 1 hr 13 mins ago
SPRINGFIELD -- Gov. Bruce Rauner says the state of Illinois will temporarily stop accepting new Syrian refugees in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris.

Rauner said Monday that Illinois will consider all of its legal options pending a review of U.S. Department and Homeland Security's acceptance and security processes. Rauner is one of several U.S. governors who say they will stop allowing Syrian refugees into their states after the Friday night attacks in Paris left at least 129 people dead.

Rauner says Illinois has to balance its tradition of welcoming refugees while "ensuring the safety and security of our citizens."

In a statement on Monday, U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Illinois, said: "The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and FBI Director James Comey have cautioned that terrorist infiltration of Syrian refugees is possible based on our limited ability screen all Syrian refugees. No refugee related to the Syrian crisis should be admitted to the United States unless the Administration can guarantee, with 100 percent assurance, that they are not members, supporters, or sympathizers of ISIS."

http://abc7chicago.com/news/gov-rauner-illinois-will-stop-accepting-syrian-refugees/1086662/

It's not xeonophobia.  FBI director James Comey seems to think our ability to properly screen ISIS infiltrators from the refugee population is not very good.  ISIS has said they intend to infiltrate refugee groups. 

On the other hand, the State Department says there's nothing to worry about and they have been under the highest level of scrutiny of any other travelers to the U.S.

I honestly see no problem in stepping back and reviewing our process with these refugees.  Obviously people in Paris thought their chances of being caught up in a terror attack at a concert or soccer game was nil as well.  You cannot live in fear of this (the obvious goal of terrorism), but when the director of the FBI is saying we need a better way to screen them, it's probably wise to listen.

If the implication from Bartlet (sic) or Failin' is that we don't want any new Mooslims comin' to Oklahoma or Tulsa, then yes, that is a sad commentary.  If it is "We need to temporarily suspend refugee entry." that's entirely another thing.

Federal officials say "gaps" remain in their ability to screen Syrian refugees headed into the country, even as their ability to check incoming migrants has improved.

During a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing on Thursday, FBI Director James Comey sounded a cautious note that is likely to be picked up by critics of the White House's plan to welcome more refugees into the U.S.

"My concern there is there are certain gaps ... in the data available to us," Comey said.

"There is risk associated of bringing anybody in from the outside, but specifically from a conflict zone like that," he added.

"There is no such thing as a no-risk enterprise and there are deficits that we face."

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/256399-gaps-persist-for-screening-syrian-refugees-officials-say

[TheArtist]

Just horrible.  I can't believe this.  The approach should more be

"Lets redouble our efforts to find ways to get as many good people into our country who are in need of help in this terrible situation, while also redoubling our efforts to keep the bad ones out."

If this is war, and we are involved, there are going to be risks.  The first thing that pops into my mind is "Do unto others as you would have done unto you."  If I were in a war zone and seeking refuge in another country, I would hope that good people in that country would be doing as much as they could to help me. Not keep me out because they were afraid of someone else."

[cannon_fodder]

Mexican immigrants are all drug dealing murderous rapists looking to take our jobs and not work and suck up government benefits! Syrian refugees are all terrorists pretending to run from terrorists! Quick, over react! You'll note we are not restricting visa from Saudi Arabia or Jordan - countries that really have sent terrorists over here to kill Americans. About 100,000 Saudi Arabians come to the United States each year. Freak out! Wait, what? You hate Iran and have lots of oil? Cool, never mind,

I understand your concern Conan. There is no possible way anyone can ever vouch for the safety of someone else, ever. Particularly when that person is coming from a conflict zone where their entire identity may have been destroyed. There are significant challenges there. The reaction is probably meant to be cautionary, but it is a classic knee jerk American reaction that serves little, if any, real good while making us look like xenophobes. The letters are not diplomatic, they are bluster. Nearly all of the people we are talking about are the people trying to get away from these monsters.

There are 3,000,000 Syrian refugees. There are ~80k ISIS fighters per the Pentagon. So lets pretend 10% of all ISIS fighters left Syria and faked being refugees. So that gives us 8,000 ISIS fighters disguised as refugees hiding out in Europe, Jordan, Turkey, etc. So far, one of those 8,000 is suspected of actually carrying out a terrorist attack (one Syrian passport found in Paris terrorist attacks). So there are a sinister 7,999 laying in wait that chose not to take part in that attack (que scary music)!

The USA is planning on taking 10,000 Syrian refugees.

Time for some hypergeometric probability calculations!
Population = N = 3,000,000
Sample = n = 10,000
Successes in population = K = 8,000 (a success in this instance is a terrorist, just the language of statistics)
Successes achieved = k = 1  (calculating the odds of one terrorist in the group)

The probability of k =1(P)...

P(X=k) = ((K^k)(N-K^n-k)/(N^n)... which my graphing calculator program tells me is .0024. That means the probability of there being 1 or more ISIS fighter in the group the USA takes is 0.24%. So if we took 100,000, there would be ~ a 2% chance of there being one ISIS fighter (the formula is not linear). And that is all pretending 10% of all ISIS fighters are just chillin' in Europe pretending to be refugees, which is an amazing number for our intelligence forces to miss. Frankly, it is utterly ridiculous.

It also ignores that we have the ability to screen people, do interviews, review passport history, and the database of the FBI, CIA, NSA, UN, etc. Yes, it is difficult when people have had their lives destroyed - but there is a great chance we could screen most people. Or at least many people. Lets pretend we can only effectively screen 10%... that gives us a pool of 30k refugees. Further reducing the minuscule odds.

Then there is the fact that we have never had secured borders. They can cross in Mexico. They can swim here from Cuba. They can come ashore just about anywhere really (see, e.g., the Nazis during WWII).  They can come over on tourist visas. Student visas. Some are Americans and can just come home. Sending 10% of your force to pretend to be refugees in hopes that one of them hits that 0.24% chance of coming to America seems like a really, really bad plan for a group that, thus far, has executed some brutally efficient plans. It makes no sense.

Finally, there is of course the problem that immigration is not the mayor or the governors job. They, in fact, have no constitutional authority over it. The feds get to set immigration policy, the states cannot stop the free movement of peoples. So it really is just political bluster, and no more. Unfortunate that we, predictably, jump on the bandwagon to show our ugly side when there is no real advantage to Oklahoma (all those busloads of Syrians I've been seeing lately).

This country was built on immigrants. We draw great power and profit from our draw as a beacon for people. Many Syrians are affluent, educated, and politically moderate. Lets get a screening process in place, then accept the risk. Someone could gain a boatload (get it?) of educated citizens who are really grateful for the opportunity American presents.

[Conan71]

It's not my "concern."  I'm simply trying to add some balance to the OP that this is based in more backwoods Oklahoma ignorance toward more Aye-Rabs coming to our pristine Christian caliphate. 

INS apparently has plans to disseminate Syrian refugees throughout 180 communities in the US. Those communities do have reason for concern immediately after a tragedy like this.   

That said, the meme that there are 10,000 refugees in New Orleans in some sort of INS purgatory right now seems to be complete myth.  According to the state department, this is to take place next year, so it's not like there are a bunch of refugees being held in jail cells or sleeping on cots under the stars in NO awaiting their fate.  After an event like Friday night is most certainly an appropriate time to ask for a more thorough review of the refugees or at least the screening process.  In fact, this is more along the lines of orderly immigration we do practice on a daily basis. 

I have yet to hear anyone criticize France for shutting down their borders since the attack Friday night.  We shut down American air space for roughly two days after the 9/11 attacks and completely over-hauled our passenger screening process.  Was that an over-reaction or a long-overdue review of our screening process?   Many modes of mass transit were shut down or severely restricted in the NE after the 9/11 attacks.  The terrorists didn't use trains, but the NY subway system was severely screwed up for weeks after that as well as Amtrak.

I see it as exercising some caution in the wake of a new round of terrorist attacks and the promise from ISIS that more are just around the corner.  If leaders do not step back and cast a wary eye at what is going on and more people are killed or maimed under their watch, that is seen as a dereliction of duty if they did not act prudently in trying to prevent a similar situation.

All the security surrounding US sporting events since 9/11 seemed pretty extreme until a couple of punks decided to detonate a bomb during the Boston Marathon. 

Exercising caution is natural, not evil and not discriminatory.  Having smart immigration policies and following through on them is not evil nor discriminatory either.  Enforcing immigration policy doesn't save us from the evil in our society, that's not what it's there for. 

There are certainly no guarantees.  I had a far greater chance of being taken out while mowing my lawn by my psychotic ex neighbor in her Blazer than being targeted by random Islamic extremists roving my neighborhood looking for Americans to slaughter. 

[Hoss]

It's not my "concern."  I'm simply trying to add some balance to the OP that this is based in more backwoods Oklahoma ignorance toward more Aye-Rabs coming to our pristine Christian caliphate. 

INS apparently has plans to disseminate Syrian refugees throughout 180 communities in the US. Those communities do have reason for concern immediately after a tragedy like this.   

That said, the meme that there are 10,000 refugees in New Orleans in some sort of INS purgatory right now seems to be complete myth.  According to the state department, this is to take place next year, so it's not like there are a bunch of refugees being held in jail cells or sleeping on cots under the stars in NO awaiting their fate.  After an event like Friday night is most certainly an appropriate time to ask for a more thorough review of the refugees or at least the screening process.  In fact, this is more along the lines of orderly immigration we do practice on a daily basis. 

I have yet to hear anyone criticize France for shutting down their borders since the attack Friday night.  We shut down American air space for roughly two days after the 9/11 attacks and completely over-hauled our passenger screening process.  Was that an over-reaction or a long-overdue review of our screening process?   Many modes of mass transit were shut down or severely restricted in the NE after the 9/11 attacks.  The terrorists didn't use trains, but the NY subway system was severely screwed up for weeks after that as well as Amtrak.

I see it as exercising some caution in the wake of a new round of terrorist attacks and the promise from ISIS that more are just around the corner.  If leaders do not step back and cast a wary eye at what is going on and more people are killed or maimed under their watch, that is seen as a dereliction of duty if they did not act prudently in trying to prevent a similar situation.

All the security surrounding US sporting events since 9/11 seemed pretty extreme until a couple of punks decided to detonate a bomb during the Boston Marathon. 

Exercising caution is natural, not evil and not discriminatory.  Having smart immigration policies and following through on them is not evil nor discriminatory either.  Enforcing immigration policy doesn't save us from the evil in our society, that's not what it's there for. 

There are certainly no guarantees.  I had a far greater chance of being taken out while mowing my lawn by my psychotic ex neighbor in her Blazer than being targeted by random Islamic extremists roving my neighborhood looking for Americans to slaughter. 

Two days?  How about more like 8.  I remember this pretty vividly.  At least for commercial flights.  I know they let crop dusters and GA start a little earlier because the security worry wasn't as large with smaller aircraft.

[Conan71]

Two days?  How about more like 8.  I remember this pretty vividly.  At least for commercial flights.  I know they let crop dusters and GA start a little earlier because the security worry wasn't as large with smaller aircraft.

That was my initial memory too, Hoss.  I did some fact checking and that's the timeline I came up with.  I was thinking commercial went back up first and GA was snarled for over a week due to concerns of far more GA aircraft available for more potential "fly-in" attacks.

[PonderInc]

Wait.  I thought we were a government based on a Christian foundation.  That's what Fallin and friends keep telling us.  So when Christ was talking about loving your neighbors as yourself, loving your enemies, turning the other cheek.... that was all... uh... a Communist plot?

[swake]

All the identified attackers so far are European, mostly French and Belgian nationals. One unidentified attacker did seem come into Europe with refugees from Syria, but it seems his passport was a fake and a refugee with a passport under the same name has been found in in Serbia.  Most identified attackers had links to Syria in that they had traveled to Syria to fight, but they are not Syrians and not refugees.

What exactly is closing our borders to the victims of this conflict supposed to accomplish? This makes as much sense as our invading Iraq after a bunch of Saudi and Yemeni nationals living in Afghanistan attacked us on 9/11.

[Townsend]

Gonna be all better now...

House Republicans Create Task Force On Syrian Refugees

http://publicradiotulsa.org/post/house-republicans-create-task-force-syrian-refugees

In response to last week's terrorist attacks in Paris, House Republicans have formed a task force charged with finding a legislative response to calm fears about Syrian refugees coming into the U.S.

Speaking on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, House Speaker Paul Ryan called the attacks "pure evil."

"It's clear that this was an act of war and that the world needs American leadership," he said.

Ryan called for a "pause" in the flow of Syrian refugees into the United States, to give Congress time to evaluate the national security risks and "verify that terrorists are not trying to infiltrate the refugee population." The current program will allow 10,000 additional Syrian refugees to enter the country next year.

Ryan joins more than half of U.S. governors and several presidential candidates in calling for a halt to the refugee program.

"Our nation has always been welcoming. But we cannot let terrorists take advantage of our compassion. This is a moment where it's better to be safe than to be sorry," Ryan said.

The task force, led by Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and committee chairmen, is meeting daily.

Ryan said he wants the task force to come up with a legislative recommendation before a must-pass spending bill is due on Dec. 10.

He also called on the Obama administration to present a strategy for defeating, "not just containing," ISIS. "All of this rises above politics," he said.

[Townsend]

I wonder if anyone proved that the members of this task force could identify Syria on the globe.  Hell, identify the middle East.

[Red Arrow]

I wonder if anyone proved that the members of this task force could identify Syria on the globe.  Hell, identify the middle East.

Middle East:
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland

[patric]

All the security surrounding US sporting events since 9/11 seemed pretty extreme until a couple of punks decided to detonate a bomb during the Boston Marathon. 

Russia Repeatedly Warned U.S. Intelligence About Boston Bombers
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/497026.html