Future vehicles and their impact.

[TheArtist]

   I find it interesting that there are multiple topics on this forum from Transit to Oil/energy which have neglected to bring up something which will greatly affect the future of both...  Self-driving electric vehicles.

I see a future when most people, even in currently auto centric places like Tulsa, do not have cars.  And, or, there are certainly fewer multiple car households.

Imagine getting ready to leave from a meeting or dinner at a restaurant and speaking into your phone saying "I am ready to go home."  The phone will know what you mean and will summon a car.  Perhaps its an Uber with a human driver, or a self driving vehicle that some individual owns and is not currently using but renting out when they are not using it, or one owned by a transportation company (Recently Ford when talking about their self-driving car technology, said they were transitioning to a future when they will become more of a "transportation" company, not just an auto company).

But anyway, you say "I am ready to go home." and then on your phone several available options will pop up giving time of arrival and price and you choose one.  Then your phone will let you know when your ride has arrived, you get in and it takes you home.

Most errands could be done this way.  The only trick I see in many people getting rid of their cars would be the morning commute type scenario.  But I have no doubt that in a short amount of time with the huge impact that is possible with this technology that new ideas/means will arise that we are not even thinking about.

Imagine that car that picked me up and took me home is now on it's way home and the owner of the car has agreements with Reasors or Wal-Mart, and there happens to be an order near the route back to it's home.  The car goes to Wal-Mart and the employees load someones groceries or goods into it and takes it to the person who ordered the product whose home is near where the car "lives", voila, the cars owner makes a few extra bucks right there.  Perhaps companies or shopping centers themselves have a few autonomous vehicles of their own available for deliveries.  "Darn it I need some more nails and some glue from my Home Depot, punch the items in on my touch screen and voila, in a few minutes a little vehicle pulls up in my driveway with what I want.

If self-driving technology actually pans out, I think it is going to change our world in ways we can't imagine right now.  Our thoughts, attitudes, priorities, etc. will change and that will quickly then lead to even more changes.  Big shifts are coming if this technology happens.  And I think within a decade it will be viable.  

But, what can you imagine the different impacts this technology will have on, how we live, how we design our cities, etc.?  How will this effect our current thoughts on transit (will there still be the same call for rail or bus transit)? Parking requirements? etc.  Are our efforts to begin building a good transit system to be in place 10-15-20 years in the future wasteful, backward, expensive ideas in the light of this new technology?  


Also, I keep getting the feeling that Saudi Arabia is not just keeping prices low to "tamp down" our Fracking industry, but I see hints here and there that they see this as a critical time to crush electric vehicle technology and the future above that I mention where there are potentially far fewer cars purchased.  If the roll out of these new electric cars can survive these low gas prices, imagine how competitive they will be when oil prices go back up and the electric car technology (and alternative energy tech in general) is more advanced and cheaper.  Well, let's say that will definitely begin to hold oil prices down period.  I can see perhaps one more swing at oil prices going up to a decent point again, then really time is against the oil industry and there will be an inevitable permanent decline.  Our state needs to realize what is going on in that respect and move forward quickly. This future isn't that far off at all.


I know this is actually too early in a way to be talking about this stuff, but what I am doing is putting this out there so that in about 5 years or so when this stuff really does look potentially viable and suddenly more people begin to take it seriously as a possibility, I will be able to say.... "See, look back there, way back in 2016, I told ya so!  I was telling you this back then!"




   

[AquaMan]

A few years back some similar thought was given to the future of the oil industry when it was proclaimed that we had reached "peak" oil. That reserves were dropping and we would be forced into a new reality. I guess that was before fracking and Dakota shale. Other than sauerkraut no one thinks we need to become self sufficient and ween ourselves from the middle east. We are now exporting our oil.

I love the futurist predictions but nothing really changes, just the outward look. I think growing cities will still rely heavily on mass transit though it may be powered by different fuels and vehicles. And in five years the suburbs will still grow for the same reasons they do now and demand more highways. Housing is due for extreme change as tastes become more technological and space is not nearly as important.

Other than in times of crisis, like war and depression, power and wealth tend to have more say in the direction and timing of progress than technology and engineering.

[TheArtist]

A few years back some similar thought was given to the future of the oil industry when it was proclaimed that we had reached "peak" oil. That reserves were dropping and we would be forced into a new reality. I guess that was before fracking and Dakota shale. Other than sauerkraut no one thinks we need to become self sufficient and ween ourselves from the middle east. We are now exporting our oil.

I love the futurist predictions but nothing really changes, just the outward look. I think growing cities will still rely heavily on mass transit though it may be powered by different fuels and vehicles. And in five years the suburbs will still grow for the same reasons they do now and demand more highways. Housing is due for extreme change as tastes become more technological and space is not nearly as important.

Other than in times of crisis, like war and depression, power and wealth tend to have more say in the direction and timing of progress than technology and engineering.

Remember one thing.... "They" were saying that stuff... I wasn't.  I try to be careful when predicting things about the future because yes indeed, someone can look on here and say "See you thought this and you were wrong."  If the technology really ends up working, and it looks pretty sure like it will.... Its will be as big a game changer as the automobile itself was at the at the beginning of the last century.  

I was also never one declaring the "End of Suburbia" and of car culture (though I personally despise it lol) though many have.  I too see that that is not going to end, matter of fact whats coming may make it easier to sprawl, but perhaps in a different way.  I have sat next to a lot of people I respect and kept my mouth shut when they talk about us needing transit and more compact cities because oil will inevitably run out or get too expensive and my first thought was "No, people will still drive (or ride), even if in smaller cars or electric cars or whatever"  Suburbia and sprawl will not end because of that and making cheap electric vehicles will only exacerbate that "problem" if anything.  However...

[Conan71]

Not as long as I have Penelope:

[heironymouspasparagus]

An even broader look brings in more of the alternate energies - solar, wind, etc.  Increasing efficiency in building.  All these things will dramatically slow the increase, if not decrease the usage of oil/gas/coal.  Just because the US is dragging its feet doesn't mean these alternatives are not gaining. 

And just like we completely missed the photovoltaic manufacturing startup, we will slide in many other areas if we don't become more progressive. 

Old saying about business - if they don't cannibalize their own "products", someone else will.  Notice how big oil is starting to have nebulous ads about "other" stuff....don't think for a second they aren't trying to monopolize the alternative energies, too.

[TheArtist]

Not as long as I have Penelope:

What?  That "statistically proven to be more dangerous" human driven vehicle?  Oh, sure you can drive it... as long as you pay this additional penalty/fee and increased insurance costs. 

[swake]

Autonomous cars are coming really soon. I got a new car a few months ago and it has something called "direct adaptive steering", meaning the steering wheel is really just a round joy stick and the computer steers the car. The car's traction control system controls the speed and power to each of the four wheels, it has sonar which drives adaptive cruise control and that even watches cars ahead of the car in front of you. It has a "lane departure prevention system" that will steer you back into your lane if you drift, cameras on every corner, automatic headlights and automatic windshield wipers. The car knows if it's raining, what kind of surface you are on and knows where the cars around you are. The GPS systems knows right where you are and you can tell it where you are going. The GPS knows the traffic on the roads on your route and the speed limit of the street you are on.

I guarantee you the car is just a software update from driving itself completely. This isn't pie in the sky future stuff, this is on my car right now and I don't drive a $100k Mercedes or anything like that.

[Conan71]

Autonomous cars are coming really soon. I got a new car a few months ago and it has something called "direct adaptive steering", meaning the steering wheel is really just a round joy stick and the computer steers the car. The car's traction control system controls the speed and power to each of the four wheels, it has sonar which drives adaptive cruise control and that even watches cars ahead of the car in front of you. It has a "lane departure prevention system" that will steer you back into your lane if you drift, cameras on every corner, automatic headlights and automatic windshield wipers. The car knows if it's raining, what kind of surface you are on and knows where the cars around you are. The GPS systems knows right where you are and you can tell it where you are going. The GPS knows the traffic on the roads on your route and the speed limit of the street you are on.

I guarantee you the car is just a software update from driving itself completely. This isn't pie in the sky future stuff, this is on my car right now and I don't drive a $100k Mercedes or anything like that.

If you don't mind me asking, what did you purchase.  Sounds like quite a few features that Subaru is providing these days.

[swake]

If you don't mind me asking, what did you purchase.  Sounds like quite a few features that Subaru is providing these days.

Infinity Q50

[heironymouspasparagus]

Autonomous cars are coming really soon. I got a new car a few months ago and it has something called "direct adaptive steering", meaning the steering wheel is really just a round joy stick and the computer steers the car. The car's traction control system controls the speed and power to each of the four wheels, it has sonar which drives adaptive cruise control and that even watches cars ahead of the car in front of you. It has a "lane departure prevention system" that will steer you back into your lane if you drift, cameras on every corner, automatic headlights and automatic windshield wipers. The car knows if it's raining, what kind of surface you are on and knows where the cars around you are. The GPS systems knows right where you are and you can tell it where you are going. The GPS knows the traffic on the roads on your route and the speed limit of the street you are on.

I guarantee you the car is just a software update from driving itself completely. This isn't pie in the sky future stuff, this is on my car right now and I don't drive a $100k Mercedes or anything like that.

That's scary like the Will Ferrell picture!!

[Red Arrow]

Infinity Q50

Q50 is no luxo-barge.  Luxo - yes, barge - no.  How do you like the feel of the steer-by-wire?  The little bit of automotive press I saw indicated they would have preferred the boosted mechanical system.  I have not driven it. 

The thing that concerns me about automotive drive-by-wire is an apparent lack of redundant systems.  There are lots of comparisons to aviation fly-by-wire but airplanes have multiple redundant systems.

[swake]

Q50 is no luxo-barge.  Luxo - yes, barge - no.  How do you like the feel of the steer-by-wire?  The little bit of automotive press I saw indicated they would have preferred the boosted mechanical system.  I have not driven it. 

The thing that concerns me about automotive drive-by-wire is an apparent lack of redundant systems.  There are lots of comparisons to aviation fly-by-wire but airplanes have multiple redundant systems.

I love the car. I had a G37 that I wasn't planning to replace but was encouraged too do so by a 16 year old girl that rear ended me going 40 while I was stopped at a light.  I liked my G37 so much I replaced with the same car, the Q50 is the new model name for the G37 sedan.

I don't notice the steering system, which is good. They say both the steering system and the throttle adjustments adapt to your driving style, but I haven't noticed that either. I would have bought the car with the mechanical steering system myself if I could have, but I wanted the tech package and the adaptive steering system is required to come with it.

I usually don't buy new cars, but I read the 2014 model had issues with lack of feedback to the steering wheel and with boot times on dashboard systems. Infinity upgraded the chipsets in the car to fix those issues  in the 2015 model so I went ahead and got a brand new one. The 2016 Q50 that is coming out soon will have a 400hp twin turbo. I now wish I could have waited on that. 

[Conan71]

I love the car. I had a G37 that I wasn't planning to replace but was encouraged too do so by a 16 year old girl that rear ended me going 40 while I was stopped at a light.  I liked my G37 so much I replaced with the same car, the Q50 is the new model name for the G37 sedan.

I don't notice the steering system, which is good. They say both the steering system and the throttle adjustments adapt to your driving style, but I haven't noticed that either. I would have bought the car with the mechanical steering system myself if I could have, but I wanted the tech package and the adaptive steering system is required to come with it.

I usually don't buy new cars, but I read the 2014 model had issues with lack of feedback to the steering wheel and with boot times on dashboard systems. Infinity upgraded the chipsets in the car to fix those issues  in the 2015 model so I went ahead and got a brand new one. The 2016 Q50 that is coming out soon will have a 400hp twin turbo. I now wish I could have waited on that. 

It never even dawned on me that drive by wire might have feedback issues, that could be downright spooky.

[swake]

It never even dawned on me that drive by wire might have feedback issues, that could be downright spooky.

The feedback is even adjustable.

[Red Arrow]

I love the car. I had a G37 that I wasn't planning to replace but was encouraged too do so by a 16 year old girl that rear ended me going 40 while I was stopped at a light.  I liked my G37 so much I replaced with the same car, the Q50 is the new model name for the G37 sedan.

One of my co-workers had a G35 that was modified by a deer.  He looked all over the region and got a G37 to replace it.  I don't know what year.

I usually don't buy new cars, but I read the 2014 model had issues with lack of feedback to the steering wheel and with boot times on dashboard systems. Infinity upgraded the chipsets in the car to fix those issues  in the 2015 model so I went ahead and got a brand new one. The 2016 Q50 that is coming out soon will have a 400hp twin turbo. I now wish I could have waited on that. 

I found the review I previously saw.  They were reviewing the 2014 model year Q50.  Infinity must have listened.  There is always something with updated models that make you wish you had waited (or gotten the next model year when buying used).  Sometimes you need a car now.  I'm sure you will be happy with the one you have.