Earth Quake 2016

[sauerkraut]

I guess it was a newly found fault line and it's large. We don't need to go into "Alarmist mode".

[davideinstein]

I guess it was a newly found fault line and it's large. We don't need to go into "Alarmist mode".

Nope, just a random 5.8 earthquake in the middle of Oklahoma. No big deal.

[Hoss]

I guess it was a newly found fault line and it's large. We don't need to go into "Alarmist mode".

Fault line that was activated by waste water injection.

[AquaMan]

Fault line that was activated by waste water injection.

That's what I read as well. It was dormant till injection process changed the dynamics. We're way past alarmist phase. Now trying to gather facts and develop strategies that all the parties can get behind.

Sauer, its not what you know that is causing you grief around here. Its what you don't know that you don't know. Do your own research and stop relying on others who may have an agenda. You're being used.

[Hoss]

That's what I read as well. It was dormant till injection process changed the dynamics. We're way past alarmist phase. Now trying to gather facts and develop strategies that all the parties can get behind.

Sauer, its not what you know that is causing you grief around here. Its what you don't know that you don't know. Do your own research and stop relying on others who may have an agenda. You're being used.

But that actually takes effort.  So many people are allergic to that.

[AquaMan]

I am reminded of the late friend of Dobie Gillis, Maynard G. Krebs, "Work!?!"

[heironymouspasparagus]

That's what I read as well. It was dormant till injection process changed the dynamics. We're way past alarmist phase. Now trying to gather facts and develop strategies that all the parties can get behind.

Sauer, its not what you know that is causing you grief around here. Its what you don't know that you don't know. Do your own research and stop relying on others who may have an agenda. You're being used.

He wants to be used.


There has been so much information made available to him (and his ilk) around here, and the world at large, that it is pure negligence that he has not followed up on any of it.  The desire is to maintain the ignorance so it can be said, "well, I didn't know..." when it comes back and firmly and incontrovertibly slaps them in the face in the future....from things like frakking/injection to climate change to the Iraq war that so many of the RWRE have now backpedaled on.  Yeah, they did know.  They were told.  The evidence was available.  They chose the intellectually dishonest route of denial, self-delusion, and lying.  In other words, the way of Faux News.


In similar fashion to how the Brady Bunch Clown Show acts toward the 2nd Amendment....


There...something for everyone!!

[sauerkraut]

Let's not forget about the New Madrid fault line near Memphis, TN, it's one of the baddies, it's a biggie, it last erupted in 1815 and shook church bells in Boston, MA, it changed the flow of the Mississippi River. I guess they injected fracking water there too. Folks, quakes happen, new fault lines are still being discovered... Yep, Jump off the deep end go alarmist, the sky is falling. Reminds me of the TV weather men when a dark rain cloud passed over head they go alarmist too. We need to slow down and study the issue. I'm not convinced.

[Red Arrow]

Let's not forget about the New Madrid fault line near Memphis, TN, it's one of the baddies, it's a biggie, it last erupted in 1815 and shook church bells in Boston, MA, it changed the flow of the Mississippi River. I guess they injected fracking water there too.

Yep, aliens did it.

[Hoss]

Let's not forget about the New Madrid fault line near Memphis, TN, it's one of the baddies, it's a biggie, it last erupted in 1815 and shook church bells in Boston, MA, it changed the flow of the Mississippi River. I guess they injected fracking water there too. Folks, quakes happen, new fault lines are still being discovered... Yep, Jump off the deep end go alarmist, the sky is falling. Reminds me of the TV weather men when a dark rain cloud passed over head they go alarmist too. We need to slow down and study the issue. I'm not convinced.

Right.

They've been studying it now for years.  Starting in 2009 when the earthquakes started increasing.

Hell, even your girlfriend, Gov Failin', believes that it's not all natural.

10 billion gallons of salt-water disposal was injected into wells in Oklahoma last years.  You tell me that won't cause a problem.

There's a reason that Oklahoma is now the most earthquake-prone area in the world.

It's man-made.

Keep your head in the sand.  Last I checked, the New Madrid fault in the bootheel of Missouri had been quiet compared to what is going on in central and northern Oklahoma.

[AquaMan]

Earthquakes don't erupt. Pimples and volcanoes erupt. And, I'd rather jump off the deep end and be wrong than jump off the shallow end and break my neck. But that's just me.

[Conan71]

I'd hardly characterize the response to the quake outbreaks as anything but "alarmist".

I think the approach has been far more than balanced on not over-reacting initially.  The science is very good supporting the facts of what is making the earth shift under Oklahoma.

[cannon_fodder]

Attempt to educate:

For Oklahoma's recorded history, the average number of earthquakes over 3.0 per year has been around two per year (29 for the entire region). Starting in 2009 that number shot up, to about seven hundred per year (700), regionally there are thousands. Unfortunately, Oklahoma is the epicenter of what the USGS calls "induced earthquakes." Earthquakes are "hundreds of times more common" than they were a decade ago (24 in 2008 to 6,039 in 2015).

At the same time oil production and waste water injection grew by many magnitudes. In 2009 Oklahoma produced 140,000 bbl of oil, that shot up to 360,000 bbl. Oklahoma wells produce as much as 50 bbl of wastewater and almost always more than 10 bbl to each bbl of oil. And guess what technology was the favorite for disposing of all that wastewater? High pressure injection.

There's a  startling correlation between the location of wastewater wells and the epicenter of quakes. Particularly in regions that were minimally active prior to this uptick in activity. Correlation is not necessarily causation, so you have to look at other factors: history, consistency, and what happens when you stop the alleged causing factor?

Here, the history if long and clear: strong earthquakes are not a historic norm in Oklahoma. Consistency is also clear. And when moratoriums are put in place to stop wastewater injection, the number of quakes tends to drop dramatically (Arkansas managed to nearly stop the uptick with a selective moratorium).

So it seems to pass the correlation test with flying colors, but damn it, correlation isn't causation! So who are all these fringe wackos that are linking the massive, globally unprecidented spike in earthquakes going on in Oklahoma with the oil and gas industry?

In addition to the USGS, we also have...

The State of Oklahoma:

Wastewater disposal is the primary cause of the recent increase in earthquakes in the central United States. . . . Seismicity can be induced at distances of 10 miles or more away from the injection point and at significantly greater depths than the injection point.

https://earthquakes.ok.gov/faqs/

University of Oklahoma:

earthquakes were likely   triggered by hydraulic fracturing in south-central Oklahoma (Daroldet al.,2014), which creates an apparent earthquake rate increase in 2014. In   the Darold et al.   (2014)   case, there was a strong temporal correlation between injection parameters and the occurrence of earthquakes that was clearly distinct from the   background rate of seismicity.

http://ogs.ou.edu/pubsscanned/openfile/OF1_2015.pdf

The Journal of Science:

Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/448

Virginia Tech:

There is a clear correlation between high-volume fluid injection and recent increases in earthquake activity in Oklahoma

http://www.magma.geos.vt.edu/vtso/newsite/induced_quakes/induced_quakes.html

Of course, the insurance industry has taken note also.

The oil industry itself is well aware of the link, and has actively used its muscle to limit research and, when necessary, to pull strings to make researchers, academics, and politicians hold the party line. They also refuse to release their pressure and volume data to scientists to aid the research - even if it was anonymous (that is to say, not linking the data to a particular companies well). A very smart move when you are potentially liable for destroying buildings, but if your internal advisers were telling you there was no link - you'd be a bit more open.


So - the State of Oklahoma, the Federal Government, academia, and industry acknowledge the causal link between waste water injection and earthquakes.  Is that enough to convince you?

[swake]

Attempt to educate:

For Oklahoma's recorded history, the average number of earthquakes over 3.0 per year has been around two per year (29 for the entire region). Starting in 2009 that number shot up, to about seven hundred per year (700), regionally there are thousands. Unfortunately, Oklahoma is the epicenter of what the USGS calls "induced earthquakes." Earthquakes are "hundreds of times more common" than they were a decade ago (24 in 2008 to 6,039 in 2015).

At the same time oil production and waste water injection grew by many magnitudes. In 2009 Oklahoma produced 140,000 bbl of oil, that shot up to 360,000 bbl. Oklahoma wells produce as much as 50 bbl of wastewater and almost always more than 10 bbl to each bbl of oil. And guess what technology was the favorite for disposing of all that wastewater? High pressure injection.

There's a  startling correlation between the location of wastewater wells and the epicenter of quakes. Particularly in regions that were minimally active prior to this uptick in activity. Correlation is not necessarily causation, so you have to look at other factors: history, consistency, and what happens when you stop the alleged causing factor?

Here, the history if long and clear: strong earthquakes are not a historic norm in Oklahoma. Consistency is also clear. And when moratoriums are put in place to stop wastewater injection, the number of quakes tends to drop dramatically (Arkansas managed to nearly stop the uptick with a selective moratorium).

So it seems to pass the correlation test with flying colors, but damn it, correlation isn't causation! So who are all these fringe wackos that are linking the massive, globally unprecidented spike in earthquakes going on in Oklahoma with the oil and gas industry?

In addition to the USGS, we also have...

The State of Oklahoma:https://earthquakes.ok.gov/faqs/

University of Oklahoma:http://ogs.ou.edu/pubsscanned/openfile/OF1_2015.pdf

The Journal of Science:http://science.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/448

Virginia Tech:http://www.magma.geos.vt.edu/vtso/newsite/induced_quakes/induced_quakes.html

Of course, the insurance industry has taken note also.

The oil industry itself is well aware of the link, and has actively used its muscle to limit research and, when necessary, to pull strings to make researchers, academics, and politicians hold the party line. They also refuse to release their pressure and volume data to scientists to aid the research - even if it was anonymous (that is to say, not linking the data to a particular companies well). A very smart move when you are potentially liable for destroying buildings, but if your internal advisers were telling you there was no link - you'd be a bit more open.


So - the State of Oklahoma, the Federal Government, academia, and industry acknowledge the causal link between waste water injection and earthquakes.  Is that enough to convince you?

We also are taking in waste water FROM OTHER STATES!

http://www.kjrh.com/news/local-news/ok-allows-various-states-to-inject-wastewater-into-arbuckle-wells

[heironymouspasparagus]

Attempt to educate:

Not for him.  May want to put a disclaimer that it is for everyone else but sauer...since all he sees is that dark brown haze.


For everyone but sauer...

One of those few earthquakes we used to have occurred in Feb, 1952.  We lived over on north Nogales in a little place that is under the highway now.  The kitchen had a single light bulb hanging a few feet down from the high ceiling on it's wire.  Earthquake hit and shook the area.  The light on a wire started swaying back and forth - a couple of feet swing from the people who were there and aware (I was kinda young).  Since this stuff was so rare, Mom didn't understand what was happening (and I sure didn't either at the time) so she got her kitchen step stool and climbed up and stopped the light from swaying....it just wasn't right and she was very much a stickler for things being in their proper place!

They figured out later what it was and that the light was really ok....  The point being that these events - detectable quakes - were so rare that it took a while after the event to understand what had happened and what a proper reaction might be.  Now...everyone knows what is going on and how to deal with.  That's the difference between 3 naturally occurring events and hundreds of man-made events.