President Trump- The Implications

[patric]

Why do I have this strange feeling Trump's regime will end in a bunker somewhere?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odhJTZf-lz8

[Conan71]

Hitler's assesment of Trump's job performance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy1hwSulC-Y

Hitler interviews Trump about Russia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk4QY2JCv0k

[Hoss]

Oy.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/347738-wh-to-issue-guidance-on-transgender-military-ban-in-coming-days-report

[guido911]

Oy.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/347738-wh-to-issue-guidance-on-transgender-military-ban-in-coming-days-report

Yeah. But you know what? Hillary is not president. Just keep telling yourself (or I will out of pure joy). Hillary is not president. I think if you keep saying that to yourself, someday it will sink in. That way you can move on.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Yeah. But you know what? Hillary is not president. Just keep telling yourself (or I will out of pure joy). Hillary is not president. I think if you keep saying that to yourself, someday it will sink in. That way you can move on.

Ahhh, yes... Trump Apologist Time.  Any ( and most!) forms of debased behavior is fine with you as long as Hillary isn't President...  Got it !

Pedophilia - repeated child molestation
Serial affairs
Multiple wives
Insults to POW's (and veterans in general)
Serial sexual molestation of NON-consenting women
Ridicule of handicapped
Repeated criminal activity in housing New York
Repeated criminal activity - illegals in every hotel
Russian hotel prostitute perversions videos


We now understand your ethics, morals, and rationalizations perfectly.  Kind of a "Godfather" Catholicism you got going there...how strange that none of the Catholics in my family or that I grew up with have that set of "family values".   As long as it isn't Hillary, the ends justifies the means....

[swake]

Yeah. But you know what? Hillary is not president. Just keep telling yourself (or I will out of pure joy). Hillary is not president. I think if you keep saying that to yourself, someday it will sink in. That way you can move on.

History isn't going to be kind to your stand here. But then you loved Bush right through and beyond his driving the economy into the dirt. Does it hurt to be this wrong about everything?

[cannon_fodder]

History isn't going to be kind to your stand here. But then you loved Bush right through and beyond his driving the economy into the dirt. Does it hurt to be this wrong about everything?

How did Bush drive the economy into the dirt? I grant you he didn't do much to prevent it, but neither did Bill and there is a great argument that Reagan started the policies that led to the bubble(s).  Bush inherited an economy already wobbling and set for stagnation (dot com had peaked, no new segment has emerged), that had a real estate bubble built into a ton of self betting from too big to fail banks waiting for a financial meltdown, and then got shocked by 911.  He didn't help with the drastic deficit spending, tax cuts that weren't offset, and war spending.  But he did allow the Fed and Treasury to do a lot of tricks to keep the wheels from falling off.

And I will grant you Trump is working on undoing all of the reforms and safeguards put in place to make sure we don't drive down that same road again.  Lessons to be learned?  What lessons to be learned!  We aren't seeing another bubble, this is a recovery!

But you weren't talking about Trump, you said Bush drove the economy into the dirt and you made me defend him.  Not cool.  Its like blaming Bush for 911 because it was "on his watch."  Sure, he hypothetically could have prevented it.  But its almost certain that no president would have.

[swake]

How did Bush drive the economy into the dirt? I grant you he didn't do much to prevent it, but neither did Bill and there is a great argument that Reagan started the policies that led to the bubble(s).  Bush inherited an economy already wobbling and set for stagnation (dot com had peaked, no new segment has emerged), that had a real estate bubble built into a ton of self betting from too big to fail banks waiting for a financial meltdown, and then got shocked by 911.  He didn't help with the drastic deficit spending, tax cuts that weren't offset, and war spending.  But he did allow the Fed and Treasury to do a lot of tricks to keep the wheels from falling off.

And I will grant you Trump is working on undoing all of the reforms and safeguards put in place to make sure we don't drive down that same road again.  Lessons to be learned?  What lessons to be learned!  We aren't seeing another bubble, this is a recovery!

But you weren't talking about Trump, you said Bush drove the economy into the dirt and you made me defend him.  Not cool.  Its like blaming Bush for 911 because it was "on his watch."  Sure, he hypothetically could have prevented it.  But its almost certain that no president would have.

No, I think you got it. It was his policy of lax oversight and regulation combined with his constant pumping more and more money into the economy which greatly increased the size of the bubble. There are more specific causes but generally that is how he is at fault.

[TeeDub]

No, I think you got it. It was his policy of lax oversight and regulation combined with his constant pumping more and more money into the economy which greatly increased the size of the bubble. There are more specific causes but generally that is how he is at fault.

Can't we blame Clinton and the repeal of Gall-Steagall?

I mean, to have a commercial bank that rates and funds its own investment bank?   Who doesn't see the conflict of interest there?  Hello 1920s.

[swake]

Can't we blame Clinton and the repeal of Gall-Steagall?

I mean, to have a commercial bank that rates and funds its own investment bank?   Who doesn't see the conflict of interest there?  Hello 1920s.

Yes, that too, and then even more the bankruptcy reform act of 2005.

But, there were warning signs that could have been headed by the adminstration. It took years for those laws combined with constant goosing of the economy to create the bubble and a lack of attention to regulate credit default swaps. Bush could have changed or blocked those laws. He could have had a stronger regulatory stance, he could have chosen to regulate credit default swaps. He could have chosen to not invade Iraq which dumped hundred of billions into the economy on credit.

[joiei]

Can't we blame Clinton and the repeal of Gall-Steagall?

I mean, to have a commercial bank that rates and funds its own investment bank?   Who doesn't see the conflict of interest there?  Hello 1920s.

Do you mean Glass-Steagall? 

[Conan71]

Yes, that too, and then even more the bankruptcy reform act of 2005.

But, there were warning signs that could have been headed by the adminstration. It took years for those laws combined with constant goosing of the economy to create the bubble and a lack of attention to regulate credit default swaps. Bush could have changed or blocked those laws. He could have had a stronger regulatory stance, he could have chosen to regulate credit default swaps. He could have chosen to not invade Iraq which dumped hundred of billions into the economy on credit.

IIRC, not even the regulators fully understood credit default swaps, much less the POTUS at the time understanding them.

[rebound]

Yes, that too, and then even more the bankruptcy reform act of 2005.

But, there were warning signs that could have been headed by the adminstration. It took years for those laws combined with constant goosing of the economy to create the bubble and a lack of attention to regulate credit default swaps. Bush could have changed or blocked those laws. He could have had a stronger regulatory stance, he could have chosen to regulate credit default swaps. He could have chosen to not invade Iraq which dumped hundred of billions into the economy on credit.

It was the war that allowed - caused, take your pick - all that other oversight not to happen.   The signs were there for years that the bubble was happening and wasn't sustainable, and by later in his administration the credit swaps and bad lending practices were well understood.  But to fix any of that would have put a damper to some degree on the economy.   With the war going full-tilt, Bush was trying desperately to hide the bills and keep economy going until he was out of office.  He almost made it, but not quite.

[swake]

It was the war that allowed - caused, take your pick - all that other oversight not to happen.   The signs were there for years that the bubble was happening and wasn't sustainable, and by later in his administration the credit swaps and bad lending practices were well understood.  But to fix any of that would have put a damper to some degree on the economy.   With the war going full-tilt, Bush was trying desperately to hide the bills and keep economy going until he was out of office.  He almost made it, but not quite.

+1

And to be clear, it was the war he chose to fight in Iraq that did this, that was so expensive. The pointless war that has led to ISIS.

[cannon_fodder]

IIRC, not even the regulators fully understood credit default swaps, much less the POTUS at the time understanding them.

I think the regulators understood them, in general.  But they didn't understand (or at least didn't move to limit) how pervasive they had become and how they were being used.  There are risk mitigation reasons for credit default swaps, just like there are good reasons for limited short selling, reinsurance, futures markets, etc. But at a certain point all of those behaviors stop being a risk mitigation strategy and basically become betting.  

And our system encouraged(s?) bad lending.  The name of the game was to originate as many loans as possible then get them off your books. That was possible because Uncle Sam "bought" (or at least backed) just about every loan to encourage building booms and unqualified home ownership.  The result was a real estate bubble built on bad debt supported by bundles of loans that were trading well above their par value, let alone their actual value.  Everyone made money...as long as the hot potato kept circulating and no one actually needed the money out all at once.  I can only hope that has improved but sadly only a crash seems to reveal such things.

Bah!

Short version: Clinton didn't help, Bush didn't help, Obama may have moved in the right direction or may have stifled finance unnecessarily (or both), but Trump is likely to encourage the same behavior that caused the last global disaster.  

Recession / now

FED Housing Price Index - 378.23  / 399.18
Median Home Price - $262,600 / $332,700

But don't worry, it's not a bubble.  It's a recovery!