Tesla's Big F***ing Field

[heironymouspasparagus]

I believe the GM plant is being used now after Tinker bought it... it's not just sitting vacant. So that would not have been an option.

Part of it is an engine repair/assembly plant, as well as a software facility.

[tulsabug]

Like that big empty plant GM left in OKC...?   Good thing Tinker AFB was there to use it....


As for Tesla getting $$$ by whatever means he has used in the past, well, it ain't even within the same universe as the bailouts and subsidies and tax breaks oil and gas has gotten for 100 years.  If they were gonna be "successful" wouldn't they be off the government nipple by now?   Oh, wait... I forgot... never mind!

And wasn't it GM that got $50 Billion from Baby Bush last big recession we had?  Granted, tiny drop in the bucket compared to the other money he shoveled at his buddies, but hey, $50 billion would make my life a lot easier...!

And Tesla reported $104 million profit in 2nd quarter of 2020.  On $6 Billion in sales.  Lot of money.  

When everyone else was lined up asking for one of those PPP checks...  

Musk was declaring Covid to be a hoax so he could open up his Cali plant despite health department objections, worker safety be damned. He's still riding on the denier train at full speed because he's an a$$ who can't be wrong about anything (sound familiar?). And those profits are from carbon credit sales which, as I said before, are going to dry up when everyone else starts making enough electric cars to not have to buy someone else's credits. Musk is going to have to do a lot better than four vehicles with middling quality that can't even be sold in all 50 states. Tesla's best bet is to become a drivetrain manufacturer more than anything else. If they made the batteries or motors for everyone else then they can do well in the future but they won't do that and in the meantime all the other manufacturers are catching up with their own battery and motor technology.

I'd just rather see 50 smaller companies who had 20 employees each that sold widgets to multiple companies than one company have 1000 employees to sell one widget to a limited audience. Tulsa needs to not forget the oil crash of the early 80's and keep diversification at the forefront instead of going all in with a company that has $16 billion in debt.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Musk was declaring Covid to be a hoax so he could open up his Cali plant despite health department objections, worker safety be damned. He's still riding on the denier train at full speed because he's an a$$ who can't be wrong about anything (sound familiar?). And those profits are from carbon credit sales which, as I said before, are going to dry up when everyone else starts making enough electric cars to not have to buy someone else's credits. Musk is going to have to do a lot better than four vehicles with middling quality that can't even be sold in all 50 states. Tesla's best bet is to become a drivetrain manufacturer more than anything else. If they made the batteries or motors for everyone else then they can do well in the future but they won't do that and in the meantime all the other manufacturers are catching up with their own battery and motor technology.

I'd just rather see 50 smaller companies who had 20 employees each that sold widgets to multiple companies than one company have 1000 employees to sell one widget to a limited audience. Tulsa needs to not forget the oil crash of the early 80's and keep diversification at the forefront instead of going all in with a company that has $16 billion in debt.

And yet, Tesla went through 2008 with no government bailouts as compared to GM that got over $50 Billion and still went bankrupt a month after the last one. (They did get a $465 million loan that they had to pay back.  Ford got one, too, only $5.9 Billion.)

Other electrics should be interesting - I am looking forward to them a lot.  So far, you can count out Nissan as making a viable anything - they can't even get their gas cars right...just a sad shadow of a once good car company...pathetic!  

GM Volt - warmed over 30 year old hack job that is just pretty much bu$$ ugly POS.  They started down the path decades ago, sold out to big oil, then came back with a sloppy, nondescript 'me-too! me-too!'.   Americans love their Chevy's.!

Prius while not quite fully electric is probably the biggest driver in the market for an alternative to straight gas burner.  And even though there are massive disparaging anti-campaigns by the terminally stupid, the Prius continues to be very successful by any measure.  (Wouldn't mind having one for daily driver, but way too small for the kind of highway trips I like to take...Tesla would be barely enough!)  I have some friends who have 5 of them in the family - Dad, Mom, total of 3.  One each for two of the kids.  They love them.

As of today, Tesla is the only viable choice for straight electric.  That can change, and quickly!  It should be a very interesting decade ahead for electric cars!   I am looking forward to it.!    Tesla has been getting flack from JD Powers about bad reliability, but then you have to look at the fact that they also rank Dodge at the top for reliability.  Right....up is down and down is up.!  Quick comparison, they put Toyota at number 21.   JD Powers has less than zero credibility.


I agree strongly about the 50 smaller companies!!   Much better for a more resilient, competitive economy.   And we do that around here - got a lot of them like that...that's a good thing!  Certainly could use more!

[tulsabug]

And yet, Tesla went through 2008 with no government bailouts as compared to GM that got over $50 Billion and still went bankrupt a month after the last one. (They did get a $465 million loan that they had to pay back.  Ford got one, too, only $5.9 Billion.)

Other electrics should be interesting - I am looking forward to them a lot.  So far, you can count out Nissan as making a viable anything - they can't even get their gas cars right...just a sad shadow of a once good car company...pathetic!  

GM Volt - warmed over 30 year old hack job that is just pretty much bu$$ ugly POS.  They started down the path decades ago, sold out to big oil, then came back with a sloppy, nondescript 'me-too! me-too!'.   Americans love their Chevy's.!

Prius while not quite fully electric is probably the biggest driver in the market for an alternative to straight gas burner.  And even though there are massive disparaging anti-campaigns by the terminally stupid, the Prius continues to be very successful by any measure.  (Wouldn't mind having one for daily driver, but way too small for the kind of highway trips I like to take...Tesla would be barely enough!)  I have some friends who have 5 of them in the family - Dad, Mom, total of 3.  One each for two of the kids.  They love them.

As of today, Tesla is the only viable choice for straight electric.  That can change, and quickly!  It should be a very interesting decade ahead for electric cars!   I am looking forward to it.!    Tesla has been getting flack from JD Powers about bad reliability, but then you have to look at the fact that they also rank Dodge at the top for reliability.  Right....up is down and down is up.!  Quick comparison, they put Toyota at number 21.   JD Powers has less than zero credibility.


I agree strongly about the 50 smaller companies!!   Much better for a more resilient, competitive economy.   And we do that around here - got a lot of them like that...that's a good thing!  Certainly could use more!

True however Tesla in 2008 was barely a company - certainly not what they are now. They didn't even deliver their first car until 2008 and the Tesla Roadster is really just an electric Lotus. They only had $14.74m in revenue in 2008 and had plenty of cash to sit on from investors but even then laid off almost a quarter of their workforce (which was like 363 people - GM had 243,000 in 2008).

As for reliability, it's really no surprise that Dodge is at the top of the list. Yes - their reliability in the past has been terrible but they have improved dramatically. Part of that is due to not changing components just to change components - the underpinnings of a lot of their cars are tried and true because they've had 20 years to make them reliable. Ford and GM practically kick out a new engine geometry with every car they come up with these days and never really teeth one design before starting a new one. Tesla is a real problem because honestly they don't have to worry about the powertrain - motors and batteries really don't fail. They also don't have to worry about user-facing physical interfaces failing since they only have a center control pad and steering wheel that looks like it's from some 90's econocar. So the fact that they can't manage to screw the cars together when that's basically the only thing they have to do says a lot (the body panel gaps on every Tesla I've looked at make 70's GM cars look great by comparison).

And while the Volt certainly screams "boring", it's much better looking than the duckface Tesla 3 (or the fat tick Tesla Y or the Nissan Leaf and so on). However, I understand most electric cars are pretty friggin' ugly since the general MO on their design is "look at me - I'm driving an electric car". That being said, Teslas are meh cars loosely bolted to an awesome drivetrain and once they have some actual competition, which they will the next few years, and especially since that competition will no longer need to buy carbon credits from Tesla, it's not going to be pretty. I'm curious who will be left standing when all these electric companies start consolidating.

[heironymouspasparagus]

As for reliability, it's really no surprise that Dodge is at the top of the list. Yes - their reliability in the past has been terrible but they have improved dramatically. Part of that is due to not changing components just to change components - the underpinnings of a lot of their cars are tried and true because they've had 20 years to make them reliable. Ford and GM practically kick out a new engine geometry with every car they come up with these days and never really teeth one design before starting a new one. Tesla is a real problem because honestly they don't have to worry about the powertrain - motors and batteries really don't fail. They also don't have to worry about user-facing physical interfaces failing since they only have a center control pad and steering wheel that looks like it's from some 90's econocar. So the fact that they can't manage to screw the cars together when that's basically the only thing they have to do says a lot (the body panel gaps on every Tesla I've looked at make 70's GM cars look great by comparison).

And while the Volt certainly screams "boring", it's much better looking than the duckface Tesla 3 (or the fat tick Tesla Y or the Nissan Leaf and so on). However, I understand most electric cars are pretty friggin' ugly since the general MO on their design is "look at me - I'm driving an electric car". That being said, Teslas are meh cars loosely bolted to an awesome drivetrain and once they have some actual competition, which they will the next few years, and especially since that competition will no longer need to buy carbon credits from Tesla, it's not going to be pretty. I'm curious who will be left standing when all these electric companies start consolidating.

Dodge is still crap.  I tried to warn them, but 3 family members have gone through 7 lemons in just the last 2 years.  They each got the Charger style.  I have driven several Dodge minivans and they, too are crap.

First person - 2018 demo with 3,000 miles.  Over next 2,500 mi, two ECMs, failure of something to do with injection system, and a major overheating problem.  Took that one back, substituted with 2019 similar.  One ECM, plus couple of injection system events.  They saw the trend early and changed faster.  Went to another 2019, same scenario.  Kinda stubborn, but REALLY wanted a Charger for some reason.  This spread over about 1 year.   Got out of that and bought a Buick.  Been driving that one for over 2 years no problems at all.  (Buick also would not have been my first choice, but seems to work.)  They apparently got in on the tail end of that 4.5 million Dodge recall for cruise control...they didn't have that problem but probably got it fixed before broke.

Second person - 2020 Charger, new.  Injection problems.  Overheating problems.  Took it back and got another 2020.  One injection system issue - don't know the details.  Transmission was slipping after just a few hundred miles, but they got that fixed.  Since then, no major issues other than body trim type stuff for almost one year!

Third person - 2019 Charger.  Transmission problem to start.  Again fixed by dealer.  Dodge has a LOT of transmission problems because they build carp!  Especially in the minivans!  Emission problem - not sure but I think it was O2 sensor and MAF related.  Finally fixed after 4 trips to dealer.  No major issues for last 8 months or so.

Almost forgot - a fourth one bought a well used Durango in the spring.  Has been in shop about 6 times so far.  About 90,000 miles so it is to be expected it would self-destruct about now.

Ergonomics - I rent cars regularly, and in the last 2 years have had Dodge Minivan three times. (Plus two Toyotas, 2 Nissans, Subaru, F-150, etc)  Massively uncomfortable seating.  Sloppy assembly - body parts fit.  One had some "bubbling" paint - excessive orange peel - that luckily I took pics of, cause the rental company mentioned it like I had done something.  Came from factory like that.

F-150 was good enough - rides like a truck, like it should (my daily driver is an OLD Dodge RAM diesel - 1,000,000 mile engine in a 100,000 mile truck!  Truck ride.  Their trannys were crap back then, too, but have a VERY good transmission guy who made it great...180,000 miles more so far and still running strong!)

GM has a couple of staples that are decent - 6.0 liter in a Silverado is VERY good!  Mileage sucks big time, but engine will do the work you need.  Other than that, it's GM... Meh...!  Uninspired design, lackluster everything else.   And does anyone ever LOOK at the front end of GM trucks??   Geez...what a bu$$ ugly mess that is!!


Nissan anything - I have been lucky to find two very good mechanics/shops that do all the work that I can't do.  That is mostly transmission work when needed, but occasionally they are very cost effective for me to have do the work - they can 'save' me several hours of my labor at a very reasonable cost!   Have been looking at moving into a new style of vehicle for me - want a Sprinter van, but that means Mercedes parts and service.  And there is NO Mercedes dealer in NE OK who works on Sprinters!   And Freightliner is being squeezed out of that vehicle line and the local dealer also doesn't work on them.  So either go to Edmond, or get and import shop here to do what they can without proper information/equipment for working on them.  Sucks.   So that leaves Ford Transit - want a high roof - and those are a rolling catastrophe!   One tiny Ex; they have one little coolant return line that goes out every 50,000 miles or so.  Costs about $100 for the part.  BUT - the first time on many of them requires a new coolant reservoir tank that takes the part cost up over $400.  Plus several hours labor.   It's a dam radiator hose for crying out loud!  What is that clown show thinking??

Anyway, so fell back to minivan idea for reasonable cost and available service.  Called both my guys and told them what had in mind - asking which minivan is best or what they see least problems with - and before I could even finish asking the question, BOTH said, "Don't get a Nissan....anything!"   Separate guys.  Different shops.  Different days.  Identical words!



I really want an electric car for daily driver, but am not ready to do that yet.  Don't want Prius, cause still have gas engine maintenance.  If I were forced to buy today, there is only one choice and it is Tesla.  I am also very curious and interested to see what happens!   The way things are going, I may end up with an electric big truck before getting a car!   That would suit me just fine, too!  All of the mockup semi-trucks I have seen so far look good and I could live with any of those.

[tulsabug]

I totally agree Dodge transmissions are a problem however it does seem like most manufacturers are running into issues due to the insane complexity that an 8-10spd automatic transmission is by nature. For the most part it's due to they run too hot, or at least aren't cooled properly though the software sure seems to cause plenty of bugs however that's normally an easy fix. Now that being said we have an 03 Wrangler since new and it's transmission (45rle) is fine though it is starting to slip a touch when it's really cold out. After 17 years I can't really complain and it's not an expensive fix. My father-in-law is on his second Ram and the transmissions in both of those have been fine and I think he has 500k miles between the two (lots of u-joints however but expected with as much as he tows). He also has a newer Charger - I think 2017 - no problems at all. We had a 1st-gen Dodge Neon that we bought new and in 100k miles it's only issues it had was a loose ground in the gauge cluster and a bad fan relay and both were fixed under warranty. Of course there are some terrible dealerships out there who just can't figure out problems and throw the same parts at it over and over again to no avail.

Your Ford Transit story of the cheap part that's expensive to replace reminds me of a buddy who had a shop that worked on BMWs - newer BMW had a headlight go out (not warranty). It literally was 7 hours labor to replace as they're designed to not fail (ha ha ha) so you have to disassemble so much of the front end to even access it. That being said, BMWs are terrible cars that should only be leased.

Like you said, right now if you want an all-electric vehicle Tesla is the only choice. The problem is being the only game in town seems to be Tesla's business plan. They still are excellent motors and battery packs with mediocre cars loosely bolted to them and if the sales of the Porsche Taycan is any indication, the general public feels the same way. I'm just glad Tulsa didn't get the factory. It would have been short-term great and long-term terrible.

[Vision 2025]

I drove by what I was told is the Tesla site last week just off the Turnpike by the Austin airport and wow its BIG with site work underway.

[heironymouspasparagus]

I totally agree Dodge transmissions are a problem however it does seem like most manufacturers are running into issues due to the insane complexity that an 8-10spd automatic transmission is by nature. For the most part it's due to they run too hot, or at least aren't cooled properly though the software sure seems to cause plenty of bugs however that's normally an easy fix. Now that being said we have an 03 Wrangler since new and it's transmission (45rle) is fine though it is starting to slip a touch when it's really cold out. After 17 years I can't really complain and it's not an expensive fix. My father-in-law is on his second Ram and the transmissions in both of those have been fine and I think he has 500k miles between the two (lots of u-joints however but expected with as much as he tows). He also has a newer Charger - I think 2017 - no problems at all. We had a 1st-gen Dodge Neon that we bought new and in 100k miles it's only issues it had was a loose ground in the gauge cluster and a bad fan relay and both were fixed under warranty. Of course there are some terrible dealerships out there who just can't figure out problems and throw the same parts at it over and over again to no avail.

Your Ford Transit story of the cheap part that's expensive to replace reminds me of a buddy who had a shop that worked on BMWs - newer BMW had a headlight go out (not warranty). It literally was 7 hours labor to replace as they're designed to not fail (ha ha ha) so you have to disassemble so much of the front end to even access it. That being said, BMWs are terrible cars that should only be leased.

Like you said, right now if you want an all-electric vehicle Tesla is the only choice. The problem is being the only game in town seems to be Tesla's business plan. They still are excellent motors and battery packs with mediocre cars loosely bolted to them and if the sales of the Porsche Taycan is any indication, the general public feels the same way. I'm just glad Tulsa didn't get the factory. It would have been short-term great and long-term terrible.

Got my tranny rebuilt and it became bullet proof!   I know a guy, if you need one....   Yeah, anything more than 6 speeds in an automatic is just mental masturbation and ignorant!

The rest of the truck is one of those love/hate things.  I love my truck, but I hate Dodge for the corners they cut on this POS.!   Right now I am in the middle of the dash, and the sleazy plastic they used is literally crumbling into small pieces every time I pick something up.  Instead of ABS, they used something that saved them about 4 cents each!   Have been talking to other owners, ALL of whom share the problems, and the basic approach is to save as many pieces as possible, buy large bottles of JB Weld epoxy, and glue them together best you can like with a jigsaw puzzle.  Eventually, there will be enough epoxy that it will hold the crumbs together and kinda function as an instrument panel.!   And of course, Dodge no longer makes the parts.   Luckily there are good sources for dash and bezel.

Neon - 95' to '99 - almost a real car.  They were no where near the pile of carp that Fiat has done to the company.  But the start of the process could be "sensed".  1952 Chrysler was a pretty good car...not quite as good as '52 Chevy, but not horrible.   And the 1939 Dodge pickups were very cool...my brother had one for about 25 years and I never could get him to sell it to me!  Would love to have it, even now!

BMW is carp.  Nissan is carp.  Later Mercedes same.  Jaguar?  Joke of the day award.  So many horrible cars out there! 

Tundra is probably where I will go for next truck, and if need more towing power, will buy a used Freightliner.  Half the price of a new pickup, same fuel mileage - better than gas, can pull 50,000 lbs!  Will get 500,000 miles - much more than I will drive, I bet.  Much less depreciation from that point than any pickup ever made.  And can sit above all the traffic to see what is happening!

[heironymouspasparagus]

Quick little hijack here - Langford lives up to the reputation of standard Republican....changing direction and not doing what is right.  Of course.

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/james-lankford-joe-biden-intelligence-briefings-184220331.html

[heironymouspasparagus]

Just found this!   Am SO hoping we get a truck factory here!  I will be trying very hard to get a job there delivering trucks to buyers!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Foy2FX_g7GU

[patric]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/elon-musk-confirms-he-moved-to-texas.html

[heironymouspasparagus]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/elon-musk-confirms-he-moved-to-texas.html

No where near as smart as I used to think he was.

[Oil Capital]

Tesla's Delayed Semi Truck Tests Elon Musk's Ability to Scale Up
Silicon Valley car maker set bar higher after the pandemic hardly dented growth plans

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-delayed-semi-truck-tests-elon-musks-ability-to-scale-up-11606568448


Tesla Receives Semi Truck Order Worth Up to $100 Million: Report
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/tesla-receives-semi-truck-order-worth-up-to-100-million-report/2392377/


Tesla's new gigafactory begins to take shape; see the video
https://olhardigital.com.br/en/2020/12/30/noticias/nova-gigafabrica-da-tesla-comeca-a-tomar-forma-veja-o-video/?gfetch=2020%2F12%2F30%2Fnews%2Ftesla%27s-new-gigafabrica-begins-to-take-shape-watch-the-video%2F

Tesla Going Full-Blast On Gigafactory Push To Realize 2021 Objectives
https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/144675/20210106/tesla-going-full-blast-on-gigafactory-push-to-realize-2021-objectives.htm

[SXSW]

^ All for Tesla's growth and the growth of the electric vehicle industry. 

[Oil Capital]

More Tesla news:

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/01/tesla-hiring-battery-engineers-in-north-carolina-semi-truck-engineers-in-nevada/