Starting a war with Iran?

[we vs us]

Or maybe they just don't really care compared to their supposed ultimate goals.

I don't know of any state in history that had as its central tenet a desire to initiate the apocalypse.  Even if they supposedly want to reinstate Mohammed's caliphate (or whatever we're talking about with ultimate goals) doesn't mean they're stupid.  Suicide tends to be the least easy path to achieving your goals. 

[we vs us]

Also:

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces," Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV. "Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway," the navy chief said.

The threats underline Iranian concern that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could target Tehran's vital oil industry and exports.

Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/irans-navy-chief-says-it-would-be-easy-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-strategic-passage-for-oil/2011/12/28/gIQA3fg6LP_story.html

So, there're actually underlying geopolitical reasons for a little saber-rattling.

[Red Arrow]

I don't know of any state in history that had as its central tenet a desire to initiate the apocalypse.  Even if they supposedly want to reinstate Mohammed's caliphate (or whatever we're talking about with ultimate goals) doesn't mean they're stupid.  Suicide tends to be the least easy path to achieving your goals. 

I believe they assess risk differently than we do. The last thing "you" want to do is to assume your adversary is stupid.

[Townsend]

AP tweet:

BREAKING: US Navy's 5th fleet says disrupting traffic through Strait of Hormuz "will not be tolerated." -EC

[Gaspar]

Looks like we are in discussions with Isreal on bombing nuclear sites too.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/12/28/u-s-israel-discuss-triggers-for-bombing-iran-s-nuclear-infrastructure.html

[we vs us]

I believe they assess risk differently than we do. The last thing "you" want to do is to assume your adversary is stupid.

Indeed.  But they are still human and are governing humans.  Logic still applies. 

They also have to play the geopolitical game the same way we do:  they bluff, they negotiate, they use international organizations to maneuver good outcomes for their stakeholders; they absolutely must have access to global financial and resource markets. 

[Teatownclown]

I hope not.  What ever happened to the days when the CIA would depose a dictator in 9 days or less rather than 360 days then 9 years to clean up the mess?  

Iran is a CIA-state ... let's not forget how Iran was used to usher Jimminy Carter out of office in 1979 ... and it created Nightline !! This is an attempt to control the economy and the media .. next spring the supremes will debate Obamacare during the election ... who really is in charge here ??

[Gaspar]

Iran is a CIA-state ... let's not forget how Iran was used to usher Jimminy Carter out of office in 1979 ... and it created Nightline !! This is an attempt to control the economy and the media .. next spring the supremes will debate Obamacare during the election ... who really is in charge here ??

Must be the Trilateral Commission or the aliens.  Jury is still out.

NO. . .WAIT! IT'S THE BUSHES!

[Conan71]

Let's hope so.  I'm not so sure the Iranian clergy and what's his name (can't spell it) recognize the potential reality of turning Middle East into a glass wasteland.  Or maybe they just don't really care compared to their supposed ultimate goals.

I've heard several opinions that the mullahs are growing tired of Ajmadenejad (or however you spell that asshat's name).

[Teatownclown]

The Saudi's are going to develop Nukes unless the US stops Iran....so obvious what's going on here. Just takes years of thread drudge manipulation for change.

Take Persia back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Gaspar]

I've heard several opinions that the mullahs are growing tired of Ajmadenejad (or however you spell that asshat's name).

He's a puppet though.  "Elected" to give the impression of democratic process.  
The mullahs have always been in control.  If they want to flex their muscles, then they will.  
I think that they, and Israel may be enticed/'afraid that President Obama will be unwilling to strike because of political fall-out in an election cycle.
Poor Hillary has been tasked with the maintenance of a precarious relationship between Isreal and the president.  Iran may see this as an excellent time to stir the pot.
They are not stupid.

[we vs us]

He's a puppet though.  "Elected" to give the impression of democratic process.  
The mullahs have always been in control.  If they want to flex their muscles, then they will.  
I think that they, and Israel may be enticed/'afraid that President Obama will be unwilling to strike because of political fall-out in an election cycle.
Poor Hillary has been tasked with the maintenance of a precarious relationship between Isreal and the president.  Iran may see this as an excellent time to stir the pot.
They are not stupid.

Feh.  Obama is perfectly willing to pursue whatever course he sees fit to pursue on the international stage (see:  Libya, drawdown in Iraq; surge in Afghanistan, etc.) Foreign policy and the judicious use of our military is actually one of his strengths.  I'm pretty confident he wouldn't hesitate to attack Iran if events warranted it.  

Key modifier:  "if events warranted it."  

And pancakes, re: Israel . . . where are you getting this tripe?  Israel and the US remain the closest of military allies.  Full stop. 

[Conan71]

Feh.  Obama is perfectly willing to pursue whatever course he sees fit to pursue on the international stage (see:  Libya, drawdown in Iraq; surge in Afghanistan, etc.) Foreign policy and the judicious use of our military is actually one of his strengths.  I'm pretty confident he wouldn't hesitate to attack Iran if events warranted it.  

Key modifier:  "if events warranted it."  

And pancakes, re: Israel . . . where are you getting this tripe?  Israel and the US remain the closest of military allies.  Full stop. 

I guess you've missed the repeated gaffes and comments which have fallen flat on Israeli ears?

[Red Arrow]

let's not forget how Iran was used to usher Jimminy Carter out of office in 1979 ...

Iran was certainly a factor in his not being re-elected but he had other problems as well.  Inflation was a big contributor too.

[Gaspar]

Feh.  Obama is perfectly willing to pursue whatever course he sees fit to pursue on the international stage (see:  Libya, drawdown in Iraq; surge in Afghanistan, etc.) Foreign policy and the judicious use of our military is actually one of his strengths.  I'm pretty confident he wouldn't hesitate to attack Iran if events warranted it.  

Key modifier:  "if events warranted it."  

And pancakes, re: Israel . . . where are you getting this tripe?  Israel and the US remain the closest of military allies.  Full stop.  

Oh, I have no doubt that he would be willing to pull the trigger, but I also understand that he is more politically driven than judiciously driven.  He has learned the value of a strong clandestine system of assassination.  He has been very successful in killing over a hundred terrorists by delivering "death from above," and avoided the mess of capture, rendition and trial.

I think this instance is very different.  Like Egypt, it will be necessary to take unilateral action, but unlike Egypt, NATO may not be an option (because they are not capable of swift action).  This means that the US and Isreal will have to act alone.  1/3 of the worlds oil tankers flow through that corridor, and the slightest instability or halt in that flow will have devastating economic repercussions.  The Mullahs know this, they also know that President Obama may be more willing to offer concessions to keep the strait open rather than engage in war when the sale of his re-election is largely based on the success of ending the war in Iraq.

If you think about it from Iran's perspective, it's perfect timing.