Starting a war with Iran?

[Townsend]

Last month when Isreal flexed it's muscles with war games, students in Iran surrounded it's nuclear weapons enrichment facilities to form human shields fearing that Isreal was poising for attack. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/iranian-students-form-human-shield-near-nuclear-site-amid-fears-of-israeli-attack-1.395726

This will likely happen again if they shut down the strait.  Will president Obama have the will to take action if they use children as human shields. 

I must admit, they have him cornered at this point, even if this is just a test to see what his reaction is. 

Thrilled you finally admitted that...

Why do you think Obama would need to take action?

[Gaspar]

Thrilled you finally admitted that...

Why do you think Obama would need to take action?

Not sure what I'm finally admitting, but I'll bite.

Do you think inaction will be an option for him if they close the strait?

[Townsend]

Not sure what I'm finally admitting, but I'll bite.

Do you think inaction will be an option for him if they close the strait?

You said, "I must admit, they have him cornered at this point, even if this is just a test to see what his reaction is."

Do you believe the USA is the only country who would need to stop the situation?

[Gaspar]

You said, "I must admit, they have him cornered at this point, even if this is just a test to see what his reaction is."

Do you believe the USA is the only country who would need to stop the situation?

No one is going to act without the unilateral support of the US and Isreal.  That's just how it it.  We've made it our fight to win or lose.

Who do think would have the reach or will to step in?

[Townsend]

No one is going to act without the unilateral support of the US and Isreal.  That's just how it it.  We've made it our fight to win or lose.

Who do think would have the reach or will to step in?

How have we made it our fight?  Planting the Shah in the 50's?

So you think the only way the blockade won't happen is if the USA goes in again?

[Gaspar]

How have we made it our fight?  Planting the Shah in the 50's?

So you think the only way the blockade won't happen is if the USA goes in again?

Ok, first of all, I'm not sure why you are consistently following my posts with the intension of starting a fight, but that aside. . .

That little blue hook of water is the power cord to our life support device. We have chosen to make it that.  We don't have the option to throw our hands up if there is a blockade. 

Now secondly, I did not say anything about "the only way. . ." I very clearly said, that I don't know what the President will choose to do, but I do know that he must make a choice if there is a blockade.  We will not be capable of taking a back-seat on this one.

Thirdly, we have already stated "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations: any disruption will not be tolerated," US Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Lt Rebecca Rebarich today.  We will not follow that up with a "Oh, we were just joking."

I know that you and I do not see eye to eye politically, but this is not a right vs. left discussion.  Before you arrived we were having a very civil debate on the options and opinions.

[Townsend]

Ok, first of all, I'm not sure why you are consistently following my posts with the intension of starting a fight, but that aside. . .

I know that you and I do not see eye to eye politically, but this is not a right vs. left discussion.  Before you arrived we were having a very civil debate on the options and opinions.

It's not that.  I want to try to keep you honest.

Your "civil debate" is generally you making up something and working Obama into it.

I want to see if you can back anything up.

Admitting he's backed into a corner is not a debate.   It's you being passive aggressive as are most of your political posts.  You're not noticing the others calling you out on it.

[Gaspar]

It's not that.  I want to try to keep you honest.

Your "civil debate" is generally you making up something and working Obama into it.

I want to see if you can back anything up.

Admitting he's backed into a corner is not a debate.   It's you being passive aggressive as are most of your political posts.  You're not noticing the others calling you out on it.

So you are fabricating a position for me, to see if I defend it?  Gotcha!

My exact words here were:

I can't tell you what he will do, but it will have to be effective this time.  There is nowhere to go for blame, and very little opportunity outside of action.  I prey that Iran backs down, that we have some important bargaining chip that is more important than geopolitical wrangling.

Somehow you are saying that I am offering a position that the "USA goes in again" pancakes that means.  If you are talking about the military presence in the Strait, we are already there dude.

[Townsend]

So you are fabricating a position for me, to see if I defend it?  Gotcha!

Nah, I think your posts are misleading.  I post to point that out.

[Conan71]

May be a moot point anyhow.  Saudi Arabia is saying they would step up production to offset any loss in supplies if Iran were to shut off the Strait.  So that pretty much removes any immediate impact such a move would have and really leaves little reason for Iran to block it.

[Townsend]

May be a moot point anyhow.  Saudi Arabia is saying they would step up production to offset any loss in supplies if Iran were to shut off the Strait.  So that pretty much removes any immediate impact such a move would have and really leaves little reason for Iran to block it.

I've been told by the magic picture box that the world is running on pretty close to 100%  production usage.

Good to hear Saudi Arabia may step up.  I have a feeling we'll still get hit with much higher gas prices if Iran has a come-apart.

[Gaspar]

May be a moot point anyhow.  Saudi Arabia is saying they would step up production to offset any loss in supplies if Iran were to shut off the Strait.  So that pretty much removes any immediate impact such a move would have and really leaves little reason for Iran to block it.

Wow!  They can flip a switch and cover 1/3 of the worlds oil production?  

It's good to be the King, literally!

[Teatownclown]

My guess would be if they closed the Straits, the US would be there in no time to take command and occupy. This would be massive with Saudi support.)

Anybody want to see how much gear and troops we have in close proximity floating around?

Testing.....

(some old posts in this thread are interesting....but the common thread is war sucks and is often inevitable, unless you're Busheviks )

[Ed W]

From Deutsche Welle:

In 2010, Iran was the fifth-largest exporter to the EU after Russia, Norway, Libya and Saudi Arabia. Iran relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15633714,00.html

I've seen estimates that 20 to 40 percent of the world oil production passes through the Strait of Hormuz.  Most of it is destined for Europe, India, or China, not the US.  A disruption would be painful for us because oil prices are set world wide, so while most of ours comes from Venezuela, we could still see pump prices at $5/gal.  That would put a big damper on any economic recovery.

Those European and Asian countries who depend on oil from the Gulf are more likely to see actual shortages.  They may have more to lose from a disruption, and I'd wonder if they'd be more inclined to intervene militarily.  Still, the idea of Indian or Chinese troops in control of the Strait would be cause for some major worries in Western capitals.

On another front, we'd have to wonder if our military could mount another war so soon after the last two.  Our people are worn down.  Equipment has to be replaced, and all of it brings enormous costs.  We're already deeply in debt from the combination of wars and tax cuts, so the question to ask is whether we can afford to get involved in yet another war in Asia.   

[YoungTulsan]

Ron Paul 2012, the only way out of this false Left/Right debate.  Not registered Republican?  Switch parties to CHANGE the Republican party back to its historical roots of non-interventionism.

You support the wars, and also preach a dislike of deficits?  Show me your budget proposal that balances the budget AND continues nation building around the globe.

Are you more afraid of Iranian terrorists killing you, or are you more afraid of the dollar collapsing?   One has a better chance of happening than the other, and it isn't being propagandized by a large portion of the media.   Wake up.