+'s and -'s of the Iraq War

[iplaw]

quote:
IMO a full-blown Civil War is likely once we leave.  Whether it's now, or in 10 years.  The Iraq War has become increasingly a war of Nationalism and National Identity.  That just doesn't go away overnight.  At some point, these folks have to answer the questions "Who are we?" and "What is Iraq?"  Ultimately, we can't provide those answers.

Only time will tell.

quote:
I assume that there is some Iranian military and economic influence.  If they are supporting the Sunnis directly, I would expect that support to dry up completely once we have left.  It's more plausible that there is an indirect link through the black market, or other countries.   Most US casualties have come at the hands of Sunni insurgents.

There is more than "some" help...the Iranians were the masterminds of the attack two weeks ago where they dressed up as US servicemen and kidnapped and killed 5.  They are providing IEDs and have been killed and found by our guys in the field, namely Iranian Guard.

Also, what incentive would Iran have to w/draw support of Sunni terrorists and back away if we left?  They don't support Sunnis anyway.  Supposing you ment Shia, I have the same question?  Why would they just go away?

quote:
The biggest influence Iran has right now, is in presumably arming Shias.  But the Shias also dominate the US backed gov't, and the Iraqi gov't has no intention of cracking down on Shias.  

Which, as I have said before is a huge problem.  We should have had a netural party running the country until the insurgency calmed down.  Maliki is a HUGE problem.

quote:
the Shia majority is more interested in what the Sunnis are doing, than us.  

Not if they are being driven by outside forces to increase the violence.

quote:
In a way, it would be easier to make the case against Iran if the Iraqi Shia leadership weren't trying so hard to avoid us.

Could you explain this more?

quote:
I don't think we in the US, have come to terms with the fact that if this gov't is to be legitimate, it also has to be predominately Shia.  

Why?  I suppose it doesn't matter as long as the Shia aren't offing the Sunnis and Kurds, but there is growing suspicion that Maliki is complicit and/or turning a blind eye towards the violence.

quote:
It scares us a little bit, and that fear can cause us a lot of problems.  I do believe that the gov't we've established will stand as long as we keep political and economic ties open.  That would be a victory.

Hope so.

[aoxamaxoa]

^"There is more than "some" help...the Iranians were the masterminds of the attack two weeks ago where they dressed up as US servicemen and kidnapped and killed 5. They are providing IEDs and have been killed and found by our guys in the field, namely Iranian Guard."

No proof. Even if there was it's not enough proof to do to Iran what we have done to Iraq.....

[mdunn]

quote:Originally posted by aoxamaxoa

^"There is more than "some" help...the Iranians were the masterminds of the attack two weeks ago where they dressed up as US servicemen and kidnapped and killed 5. They are providing IEDs and have been killed and found by our guys in the field, namely Iranian Guard."

No proof. Even if there was it's not enough proof to do to Iran what we have done to Iraq.....

ya mean free them from a murderous Tyrant!Poor Iraqis..Took us 2 weeks to free them of them,hmmm how many residents Iraq have???Lilly livered cowards couldnt do it themselves!

[MichaelC]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

Also, what incentive would Iran have to w/draw support of Sunni terrorists and back away if we left?  They don't support Sunnis anyway.  Supposing you ment Shia, I have the same question?  Why would they just go away?

No, I meant Sunni.  There has been lately an attempt to connect Sunnis to Iran.  I don't know why, wouldn't expect that to be true.  But if there is any link, Iran would abandon that track immediately after we left.

As for the Shias, I believe Iranian influence will continue for some time after we've left.  Not indefinitely.  As long as we keep ties to the Iraqi gov't, the Shias will win any civil war.  Foreign influence with the Shias or Sunnis does not trump national interests.  Even Shia Iraqis have very little love for Iran, they'll be dumped when they're no longer useful.

quote:Which, as I have said before is a huge problem.  We should have had a netural party running the country until the insurgency calmed down.  Maliki is a HUGE problem.

We have to accept that more or less.  No matter what we do, majority will rule in that gov't for now.  In the end, as we should have known all along, the Shias will run Iraq if it's to be a democracy.  Probably doesn't matter if it's Maliki or not.

We could topple the gov't, and install someone friendlier.  Perhaps a Kurd, or a Sunni.  But as soon as they go after the Shias, we'll have a whole new problem.

quote:Could you explain this more?

The easiest way to look at it is to take the Sunnis for example.  When we invaded and eliminated the Baath Party, we more or less elimated the Sunni leadership.  The Sunni insurgency is a swirling mass of groups with various degrees of organization, and few "all encompassing" leadership figures.

The Shia leadership is intact.  Whether you're talking about the gov't, warlords, or clerics.  The Shia leadership has primarily taken on the position of non-interference with the US and Iraqi gov't.  While you certainly have splinter groups, smaller factions capable and willing to carry out attacks, the overwhelming majority of Shias are going to line up under the typical leadership structures.  The Shia population has far more potential to do damage, than they are doing right now.  

quote:Why?  I suppose it doesn't matter as long as the Shia aren't offing the Sunnis and Kurds, but there is growing suspicion that Maliki is complicit and/or turning a blind eye towards the violence.

That's part of that question of National Identity.  There is going to be a gov't in Iraq, some will like it, some won't.  If the Shia majority and the Iraq gov't align, the carnage will be determined by the amount of Sunni resistance and whether or not Sunnis choose to participate in the gov't.  That is where US ties to the Iraqi gov't become critical; to maintain democratic processes during a civil conflict, to help maintain a standing Iraqi military, and to guarantee the ability of Kurds and Sunni Arabs to participate.

[aoxamaxoa]

When is someone going to explain that in Iran, aka Persia, The Sunni and Shia relationship differs from the other Arab countries because the Persians are civilized??

[mdunn]

quote:Originally posted by aoxamaxoa

When is someone going to explain that in Iran, aka Persia, The Sunni and Shia relationship differs from the other Arab countries because the Persians are civilized??

Yea and America used to belong to the indians,so does that mean we are the same country we were 300 years ago NO....And neither is your beloved"PERSIA"aka hellran!

[Rico]

Originally posted by iplaw

quote:


I still believe that Iran was our ultimate end game when we invaded Iraq...set up democracies on either side of them and let the pressure squeeze them instead of our military.

These two "democracies" that you refer to.. would they be....?

The "Opium Kingdom of Afghanistan" and the Theocracy that Bush refers to as a budding Democracy "Iraq"... If so it is nice to know  reality does not bind the dreams of Tulsa Attorneys...

[Rico]

quote:Originally posted by mdunn

quote:Originally posted by aoxamaxoa

When is someone going to explain that in Iran, aka Persia, The Sunni and Shia relationship differs from the other Arab countries because the Persians are civilized??

Yea and America used to belong to the indians,so does that mean we are the same country we were 300 years ago NO....And neither is your beloved"PERSIA"aka hellran!

Yes.. Iran was a far more civilized country during the US backed reign of the "Shah".......

[iplaw]

quote:Originally posted by Rico

quote:Originally posted by mdunn

quote:Originally posted by aoxamaxoa

When is someone going to explain that in Iran, aka Persia, The Sunni and Shia relationship differs from the other Arab countries because the Persians are civilized??

Yea and America used to belong to the indians,so does that mean we are the same country we were 300 years ago NO....And neither is your beloved"PERSIA"aka hellran!

Yes.. Iran was a far more civilized country during the US backed reign of the "Shah".......

Did you not read his post close enough or are you just really bad with understanding analogies?

[iplaw]

quote:
These two "democracies" that you refer to.. would they be....?

The "Opium Kingdom of Afghanistan" and the Theocracy that Bush refers to as a budding Democracy "Iraq"... If so it is nice to know  reality does not bind the dreams of Tulsa Attorneys...

Geez... I know you were aiming for "witty" but it ended up pathetic...I think you and Dingus McGee are the only ones impressed with your posts...I've never seen someone so obsessed with what I do for a living.

[Rico]

Originally posted by iplaw.

quote:

I've never seen someone so obsessed with what I do for a living.

You flatter yourself Sir..

quote: "witty"

Was not the intent.. Fact... not Fiction.

[Breadburner]

IP is spot on as usual.....Anyone talked to any Persians lately...?...I have... The ones I spoke with are disgusted with the current idiot in charge over there and would love some help getting rid of him.....It's unfortunate they are ashamed to say where the are from....

[aoxamaxoa]

quote:Originally posted by Rico

Originally posted by iplaw

quote:


I still believe that Iran was our ultimate end game when we invaded Iraq...set up democracies on either side of them and let the pressure squeeze them instead of our military.

These two "democracies" that you refer to.. would they be....?

The "Opium Kingdom of Afghanistan" and the Theocracy that Bush refers to as a budding Democracy "Iraq"... If so it is nice to know  reality does not bind the dreams of Tulsa Attorneys...

Definitely. No doubt this has been the end game.

When I speak of Persia, it's a referral to a civilized people. There is a strong movement within Iran to change leadership.

This post would not be complete without this link....read it wise guys....

http://www.walter-c-uhler.com/Reviews/Israel.html

[iplaw]

Breadburner:  Thanks.  I love Persians, but their rugs are expensive.



Ya know I love ya... RICO[]

[aoxamaxoa]

Iranian diplomat snatched in Iraq

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070206/ts_nm/iraq_iran_diplomat_dc_4

Diplomats are the enemy??